These will be the NBA’s worst contracts by 2030

Andy Hoops

Play Underdog's Keep Your Million! https://play.underdogsports.com/vgwg/p-andy In this video, we're taking a look at potentially the NBA's worst contracts in 2030. Enjoy! contact@tablerock.com  I make all kinds of long-form NBA content which include player stories, analysis, breakdowns, and historical topics. Make sure to leave a like and subscribe if you enjoyed this video! ► X: https://www.x.com/@andyhoopsyt ► TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@andyhoopsyt ► Music:  Inspired by Kevin MacLeod Movement Proposition by Kevin MacLeod Pure Attitude by Kevin MacLeod Sardana by Kevin MacLeod Our Story Begins by Kevin MacLeod Basic Implosion by Kevin MacLeod Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 (incompetech.com) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ► Sources: Stats and box-scores from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com, Statmuse.com, PBPstats.com #nba

Transcript

00:00As of right now, there aren't many players who've signed Supermax deals that extend to 2030 or beyond.

00:06Shea Gilgis-Alexander is one of them.

00:08He's projected to make $76 million in just the 2030-31 season alone.

00:13But this deal makes sense for an MVP-caliber player in his prime.

00:18This is now the richest annual salary for a player in league history.

00:23While Shea's current deal has the largest monetary value,

00:26what if I told you $76 million a year in 2030 will soon be the norm?

00:31Heck, it might not even be among the biggest contracts in the league by the time we get there.

00:35Because there's a ton of time for newer, bigger extensions to eclipse that number.

00:40It makes you wonder, how many players in the league actually deserve that much?

00:44Well, just like every other Supermax, very few.

00:48Remember when Bradley Beal signed a 5-year Supermax back in 2022?

00:52And a no-trade clause on top of that that gave him so much power?

00:56That was so stupid.

00:58It was a subject of mockery right when it happened.

01:01And if you thought that was bad, it's about to get a whole lot worse.

01:05How's it going folks?

01:06My name's Andy, and today let's take a look at some of the most potentially debilitating contracts by 2030 and

01:12beyond.

01:14Four years, $273 million max contract extension for Donovan Mitchell.

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02:21Alright, let's get back to the video.

02:24To start, we gotta talk about a player who, in theory, could have made as much or more than SGA.

02:30Donovan Mitchell.

02:31There was a chance that, if he waited until free agency in 2027, he was eligible for a contract worth

02:375 years, $350 million.

02:40That's crazy!

02:42I mean, I'm not sure who would give him that much, but we've seen crazier things happen.

02:46However, Mitchell opted to not wait for free agency.

02:49Instead, over the 2026 offseason, he signed a 4-year, $273 million extension instead.

02:56The thing is, even this deal, it's still ridiculous for the last year of his contract.

03:01It includes a player option for the 2030-31 season.

03:04And if Mitchell opts in, he would make $76 million that year.

03:09In my opinion, Donovan Mitchell has a high chance to be the worst contract in the league by 2030 just

03:14by the mere fact that he'll be 34 years old by the time.

03:17Even now, and in his last few postseasons, he's slowly regressing, even if there's no clear indication he'd fall off

03:23yet.

03:24For the Cavs, it was an extension that was necessary because their plan was to commit to both him and

03:29Harden in the backcourt.

03:30To play out the twilight years of their careers and hopefully be good enough to keep trying to win the

03:35title.

03:36In theory, this is not a bad idea because the alternative is to blow it up earlier and start the

03:41rebuild sooner.

03:42But with the NBA's new lottery system, tanking to the bottom of the league is not that good anymore.

03:48And if the Cavs actually did blow it up, they could very well drop to the bottom and find themselves

03:52be stuck there for a long time.

03:55This duo, while older, is still among the best backcourt duos in the league combined with a competent frontcourt and

04:00solid players at each position.

04:02The choice to extend Mitchell was a calculated one that made sense for their short-term window to contend.

04:08With that said, $76 million for a 34-year-old Donovan Mitchell in 2030 is insane.

04:14Like, maybe he'll still be good by then, but there's no way he'll be worth anywhere near that much.

04:21Halo Bancaro

04:23Here's the thing with Bancaro.

04:25He's currently on the exact same rookie extension as Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, two of OKC's core trio.

04:32Except, the difference here is Williams and Holmgren are never and will never be the number one option in OKC.

04:38And they won't be paid like one when the time comes, if they're still there.

04:42For Bancaro, however, this could be another Bradley Beal situation,

04:46where the Magic clearly don't believe he's worth franchise player money.

04:50But they also don't think they can get anyone else in free agency, so they fall into the trap of

04:54keeping him.

04:55It's like trying to leave a toxic relationship, but you always get pulled back.

05:04But it doesn't matter if he's on the Magic or not.

05:06By the time Bancaro's rookie extension is up, when he hits free agency in 2030, everything will fall into place.

05:13He'll meet his 8-year requirement for Supermax eligibility.

05:16If he makes an All-NBA team, even third team, he'll be eligible to make 35% of the salary

05:21cap.

05:22He has the potential to sign a deal worth nearly $400 million, which is asinine.

05:28By the early 2030s, the salary cap is projected to be $220 to $240 million.

05:35There's a chance he'll be making over $80 million a year by then.

05:44Paolo is on perfect timing.

05:46He has the advantage of being young.

05:47He'll be 28 years old in 2030, right at the peak of his prime.

05:51So that's why a contract like this is in the realm of possibility.

05:55But imagine spending this much for any player, let alone Paolo Bancaro.

05:59For his whole career, he's been one of the most polarizing young stars in the league.

06:03At a glance, one look at his numbers would indicate he's franchise player material.

06:08And when you see his highlights pop up now and then, you would think so too.

06:12But Bancaro's reputation is a result of selective watching.

06:16Like most people, I don't watch every Orlando Magic game.

06:19I watch them in the playoffs, where Bancaro looked amazing in half the games, but terrible in the other half.

06:25What I've come to realize is that this is a trend with his entire career.

06:29Whenever Bancaro has a bad stretch of games in the regular season,

06:32with all his flaws and bad tendencies on full display,

06:35he's going to have a few 30-point bangers and clutch performances that makes the Magic rethink,

06:40oh, maybe he's turning it around.

06:43Unfortunately, it's all but an illusion.

06:46He always reverts back to his norm.

06:48His initial rookie extension was for $240 million,

06:51and even this was seen as not good when he signed it back then.

06:55But imagine if this cycle continues and the Magic, or some other team,

06:59commit to him for nearly $400 million.

07:01This is the kind of money that leads to a lockout.

07:07Back in 2025, Devin Booker signed a two-year, $145 million extension

07:12that would make his current deal last until the 2029-30 season.

07:17That's $70 million a year for a player on a team with very little hopes of contending through the span

07:22of this deal.

07:22But for the Suns, they saw this as an investment in a player who has no intentions of leaving Phoenix.

07:35Devin Booker loves it there.

07:38He's mentioned it so many times that he wants his legacy to remain in Phoenix forever.

07:42And this extension was basically a reward for his loyalty.

07:45Except, what comes after that?

07:48By the summer of 2030, when this extension ends,

07:51if we assume the salary cap increases will remain consistent,

07:55Devin Booker will be eligible for five years, $420 million.

08:00By 2035, with salary cap scaling, he could make $100 million in a single season.

08:07The money will be significant just because of how much he means to the organization.

08:12Very few stars have wanted to stay in Phoenix through their entire careers,

08:15and Booker is in a unique situation because he does.

08:19And from what I see, he has no ambition to ring chase, or else he would have left already.

08:23So I can definitely see the Suns fulfilling his deepest desires for a gargantuan contract,

08:28but it also means the Suns won't be contending in the near future.

08:32No matter how much he gets, though, he'll be 33 years old in 2030,

08:36and has already peaked in his career.

08:39Booker's circumstance has sparked intrigue.

08:41He's the last remaining player from the 2015 draft class who stayed with his original team,

08:46and the most likely player from that class to get the supermax.

08:50Also, the salary floor still exists.

08:52Somebody on the team has to make a lot,

08:54so why not reward the guy who stayed with you through thick and thin?

08:59Alperan Shengun

09:00In a similar vein as Palo Bancaro,

09:03the Rockets' dilemma with Shengun stems from their worries that

09:05maybe he isn't the guy they should commit to for the long haul.

09:09But they're not sure.

09:10Currently, Shengun is on a 5-year, $185 million deal,

09:14with a player option for the 2029-30 season.

09:18The plan is, if he chooses to opt out and re-sign for a larger deal,

09:22which is what the Rockets expect him to do,

09:24Shengun will be in line for a 5-year max,

09:27worth between $350 and $400 million.

09:31Consider this.

09:32Just like Bancaro, Shengun will be 28 years old in 2030,

09:36in the peak of his prime,

09:37so it's also likely he'll get a deal like this or something similar.

09:41I like to call the Rockets the magic of the West

09:43because their teams kind of mirror one another.

09:46Their biggest similarity is their putrid offense

09:48and having a group of young players who they're not sure who they want to keep.

09:52On paper, Shengun is everything you want in a franchise center.

09:56He puts up points.

09:57He's a great passer, a good rebounder.

09:59They can play an inside-out game with him in the middle

10:01to generate good looks for the team.

10:03But in reality, Shengun has a much more limited skill set than you think.

10:07And here comes Alperin Shengun on the run.

10:11He really can't shoot or score anywhere outside the paint consistently.

10:15And according to NBA.com, even his post-ups are not good.

10:19He's in the 45th percentile scoring just 0.97 points per possession when posting up.

10:25And he does it a lot.

10:27That's by far his most common play.

10:31Defensively, he's not great.

10:32But you can make up for bad defense if you have a generational offensive game.

10:37Shengun does not have either.

10:39When he first came into the league, he was seen as a little baby Jokic.

10:43But the problem is, he hasn't grown up yet.

10:46He's still a baby Jokic and might remain so for the rest of his career.

10:50These years leading up to 2030 will be the deciding factor on how much his value will truly be.

10:56And the reason I think the Rockets will ultimately give him the max

10:59is because they don't have a backup plan at center.

11:02The rest of their positions though, they're pretty flexible.

11:05So there's options on who to keep and who to trade away.

11:08But Shengun is their guy in the middle who they can't replace.

11:12At least not yet.

11:13However, with the way he performs right now and in recent years,

11:17the Rockets have put themselves in a strange position

11:19where they're a playoff team with zero chance to compete for the title unless things change.

11:24If they eventually commit over 350 million to Shengun,

11:28it's a make or break decision.

11:30This is a deal that could turn out very, very badly.

11:33And could cement their future as a playoff team that always loses in the first or second round.

11:39In July, Trey Young signed a four-year, $212 million extension with the Wizards.

11:44That was after playing just five games for them, despite some knee and leg injuries.

11:49The Wizards are banking on Trey to be their point guard moving forward,

11:53pairing him with Alex Saar and Anthony Davis to help usher in a new era in DC.

11:57The problem is, we've seen this experiment with Trey in Atlanta.

12:01He's a phenomenal point guard with flaws that are hard to ignore.

12:05This four-year extension would end in 2030,

12:08just in time for him to qualify for a $450 million super max.

12:13Yeah, that's f***ing crazy, isn't it?

12:17Obviously, there's a few situations where I can see Trey getting this much.

12:21If he leads the Wizards to the playoffs and maybe win a series or two,

12:24and they find he's a great point guard for the development of their young players,

12:28that could very well cement his place in the organization,

12:31and they'll have no choice but to keep him to stay competitive.

12:34In a new era with more teams looking to compete as opposed to tanking due to the revised lottery odds,

12:39the Wizards aren't built any better than their peers.

12:43Trey's next contract will most certainly depend on how much he silences his critics.

12:47Over the years, his reputation went down the gutter.

12:50He's too small to defend in a league that now prioritizes switchability.

12:54He's too fragile to force his way to the hole to penetrate and score.

12:58That's why he's among the worst players in the league at converting shots within the restricted area.

13:02Trey almost solely relies on his craftiness and jump shooting ability to get by.

13:07But we have enough data to know that he's a very inconsistent scorer.

13:11Even so, his passing alone might be enough to warrant another massive contract when the time comes.

13:17Still, can you imagine signing Trey Young anywhere close to $450 million when he's in his early to mid-30s?

13:24Small point guards like him usually start to fall off very quickly by then.

13:28So, if a team throws the bank at him, this could very well be the worst contract in history.

13:35Evan Mobley

13:36I mentioned Donovan Mitchell's deal earlier, but what makes Mobley very likely to get a gargantuan contract is due to

13:42their timeline.

13:44He's much younger than the rest of their core.

13:46He's already won defensive player of the year.

13:48He already became an all-star, all-NBA, all-defense.

13:51He has a ton of individual accolades already.

13:53So, by 2030, if the Cavs are ready to move on from the Mitchell era and let him go, they'll

13:59have a lot of cap space.

14:00And Mobley will be 29 years old by then.

14:03Similar to Shang-Goon and Bancaro, $350 million to $400 million will be on the table for him.

14:09The difference, though, is while Mobley has shared the duties with Jarrett Allen as the team's anchors on defense,

14:14he's never been seen as franchise player material.

14:17He's more like a younger, modern-day version of Rudy Gobert, who elevates his team through his intangibles and defensive

14:23impact.

14:25Mobley has some advantages, though.

14:27He has a way better touch than Gobert.

14:29And faster laterally to keep up with Smalls.

14:32But he's still a supporting player.

14:34Is $400 million worth paying for a supporting player?

14:37Or is it worth saving that cap space for a real franchise superstar?

14:42For the Cavs, the question is if they actually get one after Mitchell is gone.

14:47With all that said, one advantage that Mobley does have is that he's more of a plug-and-play kind

14:52of guy.

14:53He doesn't need the ball that much or a system built around him to excel.

14:57Mobley can fit on any team, any contender, because his skill set is more desired.

15:02Because of this, he'll have a lot of leverage in his future contract negotiations.

15:06If the Cavs don't give him the max, somebody else will throw the bag at him.

15:11Yet, is tying 35% of your salary cap to Evan Mobley really the right choice for any team?

15:18When LaMelo Ball got traded to Minnesota, it spawned an issue that the franchise will have to face sooner than

15:24later.

15:24It paired two premier players of the 2020 draft.

15:28Meaning both Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball will be eligible for their next contract at the same time.

15:34That will be around 2028 or 2029.

15:37And both will be at the age where they're expected to get the most money possible.

15:41Edwards is obviously the priority for the Wolves.

15:44He's their guy who they drafted and love dearly.

15:47Yet, with both of them likely to demand near $400 million,

15:50they could potentially have two players tying up 70% of the cap by 2030.

15:54The Wolves already had issues with depth before, but this is something else.

15:59There's a reason the Celtics traded away Jalen Brown,

16:02because even Brad Stevens knows the next few years are a major turning point when it comes to contracts.

16:07If they didn't want to commit 70% of the cap to Tatum and Brown,

16:11what are the chances the Wolves will do it for Edwards and LaMelo?

16:15While I think Edwards will definitely get whatever he wants, LaMelo's future is up in the air.

16:20Despite his extensive injury history, there's going to be a team out there,

16:24be it the Wolves or somebody else, who will believe in him enough to give him the max.

16:29Heck, if the Wolves find themselves contending for the title with this duo,

16:33they might be the ones giving him it.

16:35But that's where what Brad Stevens said becomes relevant,

16:37because it's near impossible to build a good roster with two players taking up so much room.

16:43Either way, whichever team pays LaMelo is going to be in for a wild ride.

16:48Anyway, that's all folks.

16:49These players are the ones I believe will be substantially overpaid by 2030.

16:54And they could possibly be among the worst contracts in the league at that point.

16:58Let me know your thoughts in the comment section.

17:01Which of these future deals do you think are very likely to happen,

17:04and which do you think not?

17:06Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

17:08Thank you all so much for watching.

17:09I hope you all enjoyed the video.

17:11And of course, as always, I'll see you next time.

17:14Peace.

17:19Peace.

17:20Peace.

17:21Peace.

17:23Peace.

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