00:00Is this yield move done? Is the big run up in yields that we've seen through September,
00:05is that done? Because September's not over yet.
00:08I think I've tried to call that like four or five times and not successfully. So maybe
00:14I'll try a sixth time. No, I think it's just incredibly to tell right now and incredibly
00:20tough to tell because it's just so correlated with oil. It's just so incredibly correlated
00:25with oil, whether it's the front end, whether it's even the belly this week, right? Even
00:30the long end, it's just so incredibly driven by oil. And obviously, calling the oil side
00:34of things is near impossible, particularly the timing there.
00:37Now, the point for me also is, if you look at it from an asset allocation perspective,
00:40is there really any point in buying bonds or buying duration? Because quite frankly,
00:44if you say the 10-year goes from the, where are we now, 517, it goes down to 490, 480.
00:50Do you really want to buy 10-year treasury or do you want to load up the boat with long
00:54NASDAQ? Obviously, you want to buy NASDAQ. So you sit there, I'm like, well, I kind of
00:58want to be long tech and long equities anyway, right? Because the yield move, sure, it's not
01:04great. It does the multiple compression. We are and we have seen that. But the earnings
01:08are so strong that honestly, the worst thing that happens is equities are flat.
01:11Okay. So on the one hand, everything's about oil. But if we imagine a world where the oil
01:16price worry goes away for some reason, either it drops down or it just stops being, that
01:21story disappears, is necessary but not sufficient to trigger a move into treasuries.
01:28Yes. But again, a move into treasuries, if you trade fixed income only, sure. But if you
01:34can trade everything, I think my job is probably superfluous. Because honestly, let's assume
01:41over the next month, oil goes to 80. What do you want to buy? You can give me any asset
01:46class
01:46on this planet and I want to be long. I just want to be long, right? Because are you going
01:50to say, hey, is it good for EM rates? Sure. Is it good for credit? Sure. Is it good for
01:54gold? Sure. Is it good for equity? It's just good for everything.
01:57So,
