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In an interview with India Today's Gaurav Sawant, strategic affairs expert Professor Brahma Chellaney addressed the controversy surrounding the release and departure of Matthew VanDyke and other foreign nationals accused of illegal activities and arms supply to Myanmar rebels. Chellaney asserted, "Under successive Indian governments, India has surrendered to external pressure," comparing the development to past episodes such as the Bhopal gas tragedy, the Purulia arms drop, and the Italian marines case. He criticized the decision to allow individuals facing serious national security allegations to exit the country on default bail, stating, "These seven men will not return to India. They have been deliberately let go free. Let's be clear on that. This case is dead. It's dead as a dodo." Furthermore, Chellaney highlighted the direct regional fallout for India's Northeast, warning that the flow of drones and weaponry to Chin rebels in Myanmar fuels Kuki insurgent groups active in the ongoing ethnic strife in Manipur.

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00:00The question is, did India buckle under U.S. pressure as is being alleged?
00:04Why would Matthew Van Dyke be released on default bail and permitted to leave the country?
00:11Professor Brahma Chilani is one of India's foremost voices on strategic affairs,
00:15former advisor to National Security Council.
00:17He joins us on the special broadcast.
00:20Sir, you heard Pawan Kheda, Congress Party MP.
00:23The Congress alleges that this is surrender by the government to U.S. pressure.
00:27Is there merit that while there are UAPA charges that are pending,
00:32a charge sheet could not be filed, so a default bail was granted on a very serious charge?
00:38Anti-India insurgency groups being supported, Indian border being crossed illegally.
00:44Did government buckle under pressure as is being alleged, sir?
00:48Gaurav, India has a long record of dropping, diluting,
00:54or rendering inconsequential, criminal proceedings against foreign individuals or foreign entities.
01:04We have seen a pattern.
01:06This pattern goes back to the Babal gas tragedy.
01:10The Babal gas tragedy killed thousands and injured lots of people.
01:16Yet, no one was held accountable for that tragedy.
01:21We had the Purulia arms drop case, again, a similar pattern.
01:29Then, most recently, the Italian Marines case.
01:33Yes.
01:34Again, the two Italians were allowed to return to Italy after India came under pressure.
01:39Under successive Indian governments, India has surrendered to external pressure.
01:50There's no doubt about that.
01:52But it's been a pattern under successive governments.
01:56And I think the latest case has larger implications, especially for India's security in the Northeast,
02:05for India's relations with Myanmar.
02:07Because, according to the NIA, these seven individuals, who, according to the NIA, were involved in a foreign-sponsored proxy
02:21war
02:22against Myanmar, using India's Northeast as the staging ground.
02:28And that could be detrimental to our security interests also.
02:33You know, if terrorists have access to drones.
02:37No, very much.
02:38Look at this.
02:39According to the NIA, this was not the first time they entered India illegally and transferred
02:45drones to Myanmar.
02:47They had done that on two previous occasions since 2024.
02:51So, they were part of an international network, according to the NIA.
02:56And, in the latest case, they had actually smuggled into India a huge consignment, quote-unquote,
03:04a huge consignment of drones and related components, and then taken that consignment to Myanmar, again, unlawfully.
03:15Now, they were initially accused of waging war against the Indian state.
03:21So, it's not just Myanmar.
03:24It was against India.
03:26And that's the reason why the premier anti-terrorism law, the UPA, UAPA, Unlawful Activities Prevention Act,
03:38was invoked against them.
03:39But, there was an inkling of what was happening when, on September 8th, the UPA was dropped.
03:49And only…
03:50So, while the government officially claims that UAPA investigations, or at least that is what
03:55they claim, they're still ongoing.
03:58But, if UAPA investigations are undergoing, can a UAPA accused be permitted to leave the country
04:04following the intervention, or when the U.S. Ambassador raised this issue with Foreign Secretary
04:10Vikram Misri, and of course, also raised, we are told, during Marco Rubio's visit to India,
04:15the shift from UAPA to lesser charges, and then permission to leave India.
04:20Is that coincidence, or is that pressure, which is very visible?
04:24Well, it has been admitted by the U.S. government that Marco Rubio, during his India visit, raised
04:32this issue, and he raised this issue quite assertively.
04:38But I think more important is this, that in Indian judicial system, when somebody is released
04:46on bail, especially somebody who's accused of serious criminal offenses, the person is
04:54required to stay in India, you don't grant bail to a criminal accused and let him leave
05:02India.
05:03These seven men will not return to India.
05:08They have been deliberately let go free.
05:12Let's be clear on that.
05:13This case is dead.
05:15It's dead.
05:16It's dead as a dodo.
05:17This case…
05:18Which is very sad, but I want to understand.
05:21You're saying that they will not come back to India.
05:23So, this month-long trip, NISA's, all aspects of the original probe, including possible UAPA
05:30elements and seized material, they claim that investigations are open.
05:35Default bail, they claim is a statutory right when six months or 180 days investigation window
05:42lapses, travel abroad is discretionary.
05:46Should that discretion not have been applied to those who were earlier accused of waging
05:50war against India?
05:51And why should anyways Ukrainians and Americans enter our country, train people in drone operations
05:57and then go to Myanmar from our country?
05:58This just doesn't add up, sir.
06:01You know, you raise a fundamental question, Gaurav.
06:03The issue is this, that if you look at it in a larger context, in 2024, there was a regime
06:11change in Bangladesh, which Washington endorsed.
06:15Yes.
06:16Myanmar is a target of U.S. government.
06:20Successive U.S. administrations have used sanctions and military aid to rebels to overthrow the military
06:29government in Myanmar.
06:32Now, these seven operatives, according to the NIA, were part of a larger international network
06:39that was training and arming Chin rebels in Myanmar with drones and other weapons.
06:50And the Chin rebels, according to the NIA, were providing aid to the Kuki rebels in Manipur.
06:57Yes.
06:58And which is very worrisome.
06:59The open flow of weapons into our country in Manipur is such a cause for grave concern,
07:05especially given that Kuki-Maitai fight that was happening there and free flow of people
07:10on either side, sir.
07:13Precisely.
07:13The Chin and the Kuki are ethnic cousins.
07:19In fact, they belong to the same ethnicity.
07:21And the reason why the ethnic conflict in Manipur has exacerbated is because the Chin rebels
07:28have been actively assisting the Kuki rebels.
07:32In fact, Chin rebels have entered Manipur, according to the government of India's account.
07:37And these seven operatives, the six Ukrainians and the American covert operative,
07:45he's an operative of covert wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, including Libya.
07:50These seven were directly involved in arming the Chin rebels.
07:56In fact, just three weeks ago, on August 31st, the NIA expanded its case against the seven
08:05by accusing them of being involved in a drone attack on the Myanmar National Airlines plane,
08:13which was on the ground.
08:15Since you mentioned the Bhopal case, I'm just wondering, there was a quid pro quo that was alleged
08:21and that information came out much later.
08:24When Warren Addison, if I remember correctly, was permitted to leave,
08:28you know, there was politics at play.
08:30That information came out much later.
08:33It remains to be seen whether there's a quid pro quo even here.
08:36And Professor Chilani, that's something that perhaps you and I will discuss at a later date.

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