00:00Welcome, Valdir, to From the South.
00:01It's a pleasure to have you here with us today.
00:04Thank you for the invitation.
00:06It's a pleasure to be participating in the program.
00:11Valdir, for our first question,
00:13we have seen throughout the electoral campaign,
00:16especially coming from the far-right campaign,
00:19attacks on the Brazilian electoral system
00:21on the validity of the institutionality of Brazil.
00:25And on the other side, on the side of the Workers' Party,
00:27led by President Lula,
00:30we have seen a defense about on the integrity,
00:34on the validity, on the strength
00:35of the electoral system of Brazil.
00:37So my question will be,
00:38is there a consolidated democracy in Brazil today,
00:42especially coming, if we recall, several years back,
00:45the attempted coup d'etat that occurred in January
00:47when Lula defeated Bolsonaro in the previous election?
00:51So does Brazil today have a consolidated democracy
00:54going ahead this election day next Sunday?
00:58Yes, the democratic processes in Brazil
01:02are very well established and consolidated.
01:05It's more than 30 years that Brazilians are using
01:09the electronical yearns to manifest their will
01:13and their political choices.
01:15So we have seen, regardless of the security of the system,
01:21some claims, some suspicions coming from opposition leaders,
01:27and most specifically, Flávio Bolsonaro,
01:30who is running this year against current President Lula in this election,
01:39a very important election on October 4th.
01:42And I think we might see some complaints coming from him in case he loses,
01:51because when he gave an interview to the biggest news broadcast in Brazilian prime time,
02:00which is called the Jornal Nacional, he mentioned that he is very confident that he is going to win,
02:06and if he doesn't win, it was because something happened with the counting of the votes.
02:14So regardless of the processes being secure and being trustworthy,
02:21still, if Flávio Bolsonaro loses, there is a chance that his political party and his associates
02:28will blame the electronical yearns for that.
02:33We have been seeing, throughout the campaign as well, President Lula Silva denouncing
02:38the foreign interference, especially coming from the U.S. in the electoral process,
02:42announcing that they want to alter the results of the election for it to favor them for their own interest.
02:49Even just a few days back, Lula Silva stayed the same once more at the U.N. General Assembly, the
02:55general debate.
02:56So what are the threats facing this electoral process going ahead of the Sunday's vote?
03:03Well, we have internal threats and external threats.
03:06The internal threats come exactly from domestic contestations of the results.
03:11So in case Flávio Bolsonaro loses the election, there might be complaints regarding the electronical yearns.
03:23Some associates or supporters say that the elections were fraudulent.
03:28And that might come from Flávio Bolsonaro's wing and political friends.
03:37And externally, it might come from political pressure or discourses arising, let's say, from the United States, for instance.
03:48We know that Trump was closely associated with Jair Bolsonaro, previous president, who is now in prison due to the
03:59allegations of helping the coup in January 2023.
04:03So those are the main threats, I mean, arising from the possible results of next elections.
04:12There is a curious thing that I would like to add to my intervention now is that both candidates believe
04:19that they are going to win in the first turn.
04:22In Brazil, we are going to have the first turn in October 4th and a possible second turn in October
04:2925th.
04:30And in my view, neither of those candidates are correct.
04:34I don't think there's going to be a result right at the first turn.
04:38I believe there's going to be a second turn and a very tightened one because this current Brazilian presidential race
04:45has really tightened into a real dogfight.
04:49There are some polls that place Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, but not in the second
04:55round.
04:56And another pause, depending on the methodology, that place Flávio Bolsonaro first in the first position in both first and
05:04second round.
05:05The thing is, it's very difficult to say at this point.
05:07And the main threats to this situation, I think, might arise from a defeat of Flávio Bolsonaro's camp in case
05:17that he decides to allegate the problems with the electronic hearings.
05:26Adir, you were saying previously that Sunday's elections are very important for Brazil.
05:31What is being decided on this Sunday, aside from what is written on the ballot,
05:35what is truly being decided that makes it so important, especially in this current context, for the Brazilian people?
05:43Well, it's a decision that's going to affect not only Brazil itself, but the future of the global south.
05:49Because from from Beijing to Washington, many international eyes, specialists, political pundits will be following Brazil's presidential election results.
06:02Brazil is a leader of the global south.
06:05So the decisions on the year, the decisions of Brazilians, more than 150 million Brazilians are going to take, will
06:13have some effects, not only for Brazilian domestic politics, but also for foreign policy in general.
06:19They will have an effect on Brazil's engagement with BRICS.
06:24We know that Lula was one of the so-called, if we may say so, founding fathers of BRICS.
06:31And he demonstrates very great enthusiasm for the group and for the discourses surrounding multilateralism, multipolarity, and the digitalization of
06:42the world economy.
06:43So this discourse might lose his team if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
06:48It has also something to say about Brazil's role in the world, either as a leader of the global south,
06:57as Lula wants the country to be, or a more close ally to the West, as Flávio Bolsonaro is pointing.
07:06Flávio Bolsonaro is, in March this year, participated in a conservative Congress in the United States, mentioning as well, that
07:15if he wins, the United States will be able to not be dependent on Chinese rare earths, because Brazil will
07:26be providing the United States with rare earths.
07:29So that's as if in most sectors, most instances, it's going to decide not only Brazil's future, but the future
07:39of a great country, a regional leader, and one of the biggest heads of the global south and BRICS.
07:49Thank you very much, Waldir, for your inputs here in From the Sound, for your time.
