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This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. This week we're exploring one of the most fascinating questions in meteorology: can a hurricane thousands of miles away affect the weather here in the UK? In this Deep Dive, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern looks at how the remnants of Hurricane Polo are interacting with the jet stream over North America and why that is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for the UK this weekend. We'll also explore how latent heat released in tropical storms can influence the wider atmospheric circulation and potentially shape weather patterns across the Atlantic and Europe days later.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
#deepdive #education #ukweather
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
#deepdive #education #ukweather
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NewsTranscript
00:00NOLO and POLO are just the latest hurricanes to form in a hyperactive Pacific hurricane season.
00:07But they're thousands of miles away on the other side of the world.
00:10They're not going to affect the UK's weather, are they?
00:13Welcome to the Met Office Deep Dive.
00:15Thank you for joining me for this regular in-depth discussion of the UK and the world's meteorology.
00:22And we do these every Tuesday.
00:24So if you're not familiar with them, they are 20-minute, 30-minute, sometimes more than 40-minute chats about
00:31meteorology in all its glory.
00:33And you can find them on our YouTube channel, on our Spotify channel as well.
00:37So if you're not following those channels already, please do.
00:41And help us along by sending us a thumbs up, send us a comment.
00:45We like to answer your questions in the Weather Studio Live every Friday on our YouTube channel around lunchtime.
00:51And, of course, tell your friends all about this.
00:54Whether they like the weather or not, they may still be interested.
00:59But before we get on to the chain reaction between Hurricane Polo on the other side of the world,
01:07the jet stream, and the UK's weather this weekend,
01:10I want to talk about Tuesday, today's temperatures.
01:14Because they are exceptional.
01:16They're not going to be record-breaking, because, of course, September is a transition month,
01:20and we're right at the end of September.
01:22So it would be very difficult for the September temperature records to be broken.
01:27But for the time of year, they are right at the upper end of climatology.
01:33Now, just before recording this, I saw that Heathrow had recorded a temperature of 27.3 Celsius.
01:39It may climb a little higher in the next couple of hours, of course.
01:43But even 27 Celsius is right up there for the climate of the UK at the end of September.
01:50To put it into context, the October temperature record, of course, October in two days, is 29.9 Celsius.
01:57That was recorded on the 1st of October.
01:58The latest that a temperature of 29 Celsius has been recorded is the 2nd of October, which is this coming
02:06Friday.
02:06And the latest that a temperature of 28 Celsius has been recorded in the UK is the 6th of October.
02:12That's next Tuesday.
02:13So we're a week away from that.
02:15And just a bit later, the 9th of October, so a week Friday, that's the latest that a temperature of
02:2228 Celsius has been, 27 Celsius has been recorded.
02:27I beg your pardon.
02:28So if this temperature had been recorded a week and a half later, then it would be the latest 28
02:33Celsius.
02:34It's not record-breaking as it is, but it just shows that it's right up there in terms of the
02:39top of the climatology of the UK for late September, early October.
02:44It's not just the daytime temperature as well.
02:46The overnight temperatures are fairly extraordinary.
02:50Tonight, we're expecting overnight lows to be 18, possibly 19 Celsius.
02:55And the latest that an overnight temperature has been recorded in excess of 18 Celsius.
03:03So the latest in the year that the temperature hasn't fallen below 18 Celsius is the 1st of October.
03:10So we're just a couple of days away from that.
03:11So, yeah, that just shows how unusual the temperatures at the moment are across the UK, albeit not record-breaking.
03:20And it's because of this setup that we've got at the moment.
03:24Low pressure sitting to the west of Ireland, a deep and large area of low pressure, dominating conditions across this
03:32sector of the Atlantic,
03:33and forcing the jet stream to flow to the south of it.
03:37Quite a powerful jet stream, but sitting away from the UK.
03:41And, of course, ahead of that low, then, we've got these warm winds.
03:45Quite an unusual feel outside this morning.
03:47It was gloomy, it was windy, it felt autumnal, except for the temperature.
03:52It was really quite warm out there, despite it being gloomy and windy.
03:57And you can see why all this warmth is transported across the UK.
04:02If it wasn't so windy, I imagine temperatures would be even higher.
04:05It could even get into the high 20s.
04:09And if it was a different time of year, with this air mass, it would be potentially into the low
04:1530s.
04:15So, the potential of the air isn't necessarily being realised to its full potential because of the wind stirring things
04:24up,
04:24because of some early clouds that we've seen earlier in the day and some rain that moved across southern parts
04:29of the UK.
04:31But it's still fairly exceptional for the time of year.
04:34Here is a chart that shows how those temperatures compare with average.
04:38Well above average there for Tuesday.
04:40Maximum temperatures across a large part of England and Wales in particular.
04:43But actually, much of the UK is above average, except for the east of Scotland and northeast England.
04:47We continue to see above average temperatures over the next few days, rest of the week, but not quite as
04:52high as Tuesdays.
04:54Overnight temperatures, like I say, 18 or 19 Celsius tonight.
04:58Now, temperature of 20 Celsius for an overnight low has never been recorded after the autumn equinox.
05:06That's unlikely to happen.
05:08There's a very outside chance that it happens tonight, but it's unlikely.
05:11It's more likely to be at 18 or 19 Celsius.
05:13But it would be truly extraordinary if a temperature of 20 Celsius was recorded as an overnight low after the
05:21equinox,
05:21given that days are now shorter than nights.
05:24So, that's the setup for Tuesday.
05:28We've had a warm front move through earlier in the day.
05:31This high, what we call high thickness air.
05:35So, very warm air mass sitting across the south of the UK in particular.
05:40Cold front approaching.
05:42And what happens over the next 24 hours?
05:46I switch to this view.
05:47You can see how it all connects.
05:50All the different parts connect with each other.
05:53Here's the jet stream and the pressure charts on the left.
05:56Here's the cloud and rain.
05:57Here's the wind with any gusts exceeding 50 miles an hour shaded in.
06:02And here are the temperatures.
06:04So, over the next 24 hours, we're going to see increasingly thick cloud across western parts of the UK.
06:11And that will lead to...
06:14Let's play it on there.
06:16Press play.
06:18There we go.
06:18That will lead to increasingly heavy rain pushing into western parts of Britain, Northern Ireland.
06:24And pause it there just before dawn.
06:26And there's quite a narrow front there.
06:28A cold front moving through.
06:31Possibly containing what we call line convection.
06:33So, a short-lived spell of heavy rain and gusty winds associated with that.
06:37Once the rain has cleared western parts of the UK overnight, we'll have seen around 20, 30 millimetres in quite
06:45a number of spots.
06:46Up to 50, perhaps 60 millimetres over western hills.
06:50It's a wet night then, but not likely to cause any significant issues because, of course, the ground isn't necessarily
06:57that saturated at the moment.
06:59And then that rain still around across eastern parts of the country as we begin Wednesday.
07:05Not a great deal for eastern England.
07:07I know people have been complaining about the fact that these rain bands are coming from the west and they're
07:12kind of petering out a lot of the time before they reach eastern England.
07:15So, I'm not promising a great deal of rain for London and the east and southeast of England.
07:20I think it will be quite showery, quite hit and miss as it moves through.
07:23The front is weakening.
07:25But by the time we get to the afternoon, we've got the jet stream diving south across the UK.
07:32And that causes lower pressure in the higher parts of the troposphere.
07:37Causes rising air and causes quite a number of showers to arrive into the west and southwest in particular.
07:43And we're into what we call a returning polar maritime air mass.
07:47That's where the air starts off in the polar regions and gets sent quite far south of the UK.
07:55So, a long sea track picks up a lot of moisture.
07:58It's unstable, but it also warms up a bit more than you'd get with a polar maritime air mass.
08:03And that kind of air mass, you get a lot of showers coming in from the southwest.
08:07So, this unstable air.
08:08And these showers are going to be live.
08:09They're going to be containing hail and thunder.
08:12They're going to be quite heavy downpours.
08:14Interspersed by some sunshine and fewer showers for Scotland, for eastern England, as you can see.
08:20Still some in the south and the west.
08:22But the showers will be mostly towards the south and west of England and Wales into Northern Ireland, western Scotland.
08:30Some gusty winds around as well.
08:32And it's another warm one on Wednesday.
08:3525 Celsius likely in the southeast.
08:38Not quite so warm where we've got the showers rattling through.
08:42And then a warm night to come as we go through Wednesday night into the start of October.
08:47Hard to believe it's October already, particularly when it doesn't feel like it outside.
08:52It doesn't feel particularly autumnal yet.
08:54But October starts with that upper trough over the UK.
09:00So, further showers coming in.
09:03Thursday's another very showery one.
09:05Again, with the potential for some instability, deep instability with some hail and thunder initially.
09:11And then those showers kind of peter out later.
09:14We've got a little occluded front approaching.
09:17To bring some more persistent rain into Ireland.
09:20Now, skimming out to Friday.
09:23And bearing in mind it's relatively mild throughout the next few days.
09:27By day and by night.
09:28But temperatures are tailing off a touch.
09:31Friday afternoon.
09:32High teens, low 20s in the south.
09:35Mid-teens further north.
09:37Quite a keen breeze from the west, south, west.
09:40And further showers, especially towards the north and west.
09:44But, right on the edge of the screen there.
09:46You can see a warm front turning up.
09:49And this is what I want to focus on in this week's deep dive.
09:55Because this frontal system turns up.
09:58And as you can see, Saturday, 2pm, it produces a lot of rain for Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland, Northern England,
10:07North Wales.
10:08Quite heavy rain at times as well.
10:11And what we've got higher up in the atmosphere is this kink in the jet stream.
10:15Difficult to make out on this chart.
10:17But I'll show you a more detailed view in a moment.
10:19And that's causing more rising air at the surface.
10:22And causing the front to really get quite active as it moves across these central parts of the UK on
10:29Saturday.
10:29So, if, like in the old days, we only looked at one weather model, we'd say Saturday looks like a
10:37wet day for these parts of the UK.
10:40We'd have nothing else to go against that.
10:42But we don't just run one weather model.
10:45These days we run lots of weather models.
10:47And what we've discovered is that this idea is very much in the minority.
10:53Not just in the minority compared to, say, the European model or the American model, but with the Met Office
11:00model and its own ensembles.
11:01There are fewer ensembles that show a properly wet day across these central parts and more of them that show
11:08more showery rain moving through for a bit.
11:11So, the question is, what's causing this uncertainty?
11:15Why is the Met Office operational run showing such a wet day there?
11:21What's the difference between that and the European model that just has a few showers drying up later?
11:27Well, let's take a look at the bigger picture, first of all.
11:30And what the Met Office model is suggesting is going to happen.
11:34Oh, I've skipped ahead there.
11:36There we go.
11:37What the Met Office model is suggesting is going to happen on Saturday.
11:44This is mid-afternoon.
11:45There's the weather front that moves in.
11:47And high pressure close to the surface, especially across the south of the UK.
11:52So, at the surface, you think high pressure, mostly fine weather.
11:56But it's what's going on in the upper atmosphere that's important.
11:58And it's this little kink in the jet stream, what we call an upper trough.
12:03And you can see it a bit more clearly if I put on more arrows there.
12:08Quite subtle, but it's important.
12:10It makes a big difference.
12:12Here's that upper trough.
12:14And where you've got an upper trough, that essentially means you've got lower pressure higher up in the troposphere where
12:19the jet stream sits.
12:21And if you've got lower pressure that far above us, then it causes rising air.
12:25It causes a vacuum of air at that level.
12:28And air rushes up to fill it from the surface.
12:33And that can lead to an intensification of things like weather fronts.
12:38And so, this front is becoming more active through Saturday because of this little kink in the jet stream.
12:47But, this is significantly different compared in the Met Office model compared with the European model.
12:55I can just show you some of those differences here.
12:59These colours represent areas where the surface pressure in the Met Office model is higher or lower than the European
13:08operational or control run.
13:10And where we've got these blue shadings over Ireland and the UK, that indicates that the Met Office model's surface
13:19pressure is significantly lower at this point than the European model.
13:24And what we can do further is look at how the pressure at the height of the jet stream varies.
13:31Or, to put it more accurately, it's the height of pressure levels at that area.
13:39But, essentially, it's the same thing.
13:41This is the blue area here, just to the west of the UK and Ireland, at the start of Saturday
13:50we're looking at here.
13:50So, Friday night going into Saturday, this dark blue area here indicates where the pressure is much lower way up
14:02near the jet stream in the Met Office model compared with the European model, just to the west of the
14:07UK.
14:08And if the pressure is much lower at that level in the Met Office model, then it basically is extending
14:15this upper trough a little bit more.
14:17It's sharpening this upper trough, which then, as a result, interacts more effectively with that weather front and produces more
14:26intensification of the rainfall, which then leads to a wetter day across those central parts of the UK.
14:34So, those are the key differences at the start of the weekend.
14:38Much lower pressure, way up near the jet stream in the Met Office model compared with the European model.
14:44Higher pressure over here, near Greenland, lower pressure here, where it's blue.
14:48So, there's the UK.
14:50So, where do these differences emanate from?
14:53Well, if I click on this, it will bring up a chart that shows the same thing but earlier in
14:58time.
14:59This is midday Thursday.
15:02And we've got a similar difference that is originating from central parts of the US.
15:08So, there's Florida, Mexico, and there's central parts of the US.
15:13And this dark blue area, only in two days' time, so quite a significant difference in two days' time, shows,
15:21again, up towards the height of the jet stream, lower pressure over the Met Office model compared with the European
15:28model in this part of the USA.
15:31And this is the exact region, if I click onto another graphic, which is even more complicated, but I know
15:39some of you love it.
15:41This is a different map view, but showing the same region.
15:47Here's the USA.
15:48I know it's very difficult to make out these kinds of graphics, but bear with me.
15:53I'll try and explain it as clearly as possible.
15:54Here's the USA.
15:56There's Canada up there.
15:57There's Mexico.
15:59And there's Florida, for example.
16:01There's California.
16:03And right here, we're looking at that area that I mentioned across central parts of the USA, where these big
16:09arrows are all clustered.
16:11So, that's the important thing that we're talking about here.
16:15It's these big arrows that are causing the uncertainty.
16:20What do these arrows represent?
16:22They represent where the air, way up near the jet stream, 300 hectare pascals or 200 hectare pascals, where the
16:29air is diverging.
16:31So, where the air at that level is moving apart.
16:37If you imagine air rising up into the upper part of the troposphere and then spreading out, like you see
16:47at the top of a thunderstorm where the anvil spreads out.
16:50And this, where you've got these big arrows spreading, is where you've got diverging air at that height.
17:00300, 200 hectare pascals are high.
17:03And also in this region, central parts of the USA.
17:08Now, what's going on in this area?
17:10What you've got is Hurricane Polo.
17:13By this point, an ex-Hurricane, but still containing an awful lot of tropical moisture and some very heavy outbreaks
17:22of rain and thunderstorms.
17:24And they're occurring right here.
17:27So, why is that causing divergence?
17:31Effectively, it's because when you've got all those thunderstorms and outbreaks of heavy rain taking place, there's a lot of
17:36condensation in the atmosphere.
17:39And, when you get condensation taking place, you get something called latent heat release.
17:45It's kind of the opposite of what happens when you get out of the shower and you feel cold.
17:50You get out of the shower, covered in water.
17:51The water on your skin is evaporating.
17:54That takes heat away from your body.
17:56So, it's extracting heat, making you feel cold.
17:59The opposite happens when the air condenses.
18:02So, when water vapour in the atmosphere turns to water droplets, that condensation releases heat into the atmosphere.
18:10And all that huge release of heat in the atmosphere causes the air in a large part of this region
18:17to expand.
18:18Because as the air gets warmer, as it heats, it expands.
18:22A bit like a hot air balloon, that large area of thunderstorms and heavy rain causes this ballooning of the
18:32air in this region.
18:34Particularly, when you go from the surface up to the top of the troposphere, that air is getting thicker.
18:41So, it's expanding, but it's expanding upwards.
18:44So, the tropopause, the top of the troposphere, is going higher up into the atmosphere.
18:51If the air in this part of the US is expanding upwards, then there is a greater difference between the
18:59height of certain pressure levels above the USA in this area compared with, say, to the north of the jet
19:07stream over Canada.
19:08So, the gradient between the height of a certain pressure level above the USA here and the height of a
19:17certain pressure level over Canada to the north of the jet stream gets bigger.
19:22And when you increase the gradient, you increase the strength of the jet stream.
19:28So, what's going on?
19:30Hurricane Polo transitions into a next tropical system as it moves into the USA.
19:37Still contains a lot of wet weather.
19:38I'm going to show you some of that in a moment.
19:40But that heavy rain, those thunderstorms, cause a lot of energy to be released into the atmosphere, which causes the
19:47air to thicken, causes that air to expand across the USA, and causes a greater gradient between the height of
19:56pressure levels across the USA and across Canada.
19:59And that causes an intensification of the jet stream.
20:04By the way, this graphic is from Alicia M. Bentley.
20:07Thank you very much.
20:08And it's just a really easy graphic to get your head around how weather systems on the other side of
20:17the planet are causing air to change and to expand and to diverge and to flow and all that stuff.
20:26And how that then feeds into the jet stream over North America and how that then results in changes in
20:32the jet stream over the Atlantic and how that subsequently affects the UK's weather.
20:36How does that all happen?
20:38Let's go back to the jet stream.
20:41And let's go back to Thursday midday.
20:44So we've got lots of arrows on there.
20:47Again, these aren't winds at the surface.
20:49These are winds at jet stream height.
20:53In fact, if I put on the core of the jet stream, you'll be able to see it more clearly.
20:57And I go back to Thursday.
21:00So this is the point.
21:03Let's put the rain on.
21:04You'll be able to see the heavy rain.
21:05Here's the heavy rain from the ex-Hurrogan.
21:09So some quite lively outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms.
21:13And it's in this region that you've got all that latent heat release.
21:16And you've got the expanding air.
21:18And as a result, the intensification of the jet stream.
21:24And if I just move it over here and cycle through Thursday, you can see how that jet stream just
21:35becomes a little bit stronger.
21:37There.
21:38I'll rewind back a little bit stronger.
21:43What difference does that make?
21:44Well, going on to Friday, here's the weather front that eventually arrives into the UK on Saturday.
21:52And here's the upper trough currently to the west of the UK.
21:56And it's sharpening.
21:57But if I'm just rewind.
22:02I don't want to get in the way of it either.
22:04I'll just rewind to the start of Thursday.
22:07Watch what happens when this jet stream gets stronger.
22:11It causes downstream of it a sharpening of the trough.
22:18It's very subtle, but it does happen.
22:21So it gets stronger.
22:23That gets sharper.
22:25It digs south.
22:27Like I say, very subtle.
22:31But it does happen.
22:34And the key difference between the Met Office model and the European model is in the location and the extent
22:42to which that upper level divergence from those thunderstorms,
22:47takes place and interacts with the jet stream.
22:50So the Met Office model does it more effectively, essentially.
22:53So the one thing that Met Office model does is it causes more of that energy input from the remnants
23:01of the hurricane and the downstream impacts onto the jet stream over this part of Canada.
23:09So that's the key difference.
23:10The European model, the American model, don't quite have that connection so effectively.
23:18There is some connection.
23:19And there are other things happening as well.
23:20There are other things happening over Canada that cause differences between the models.
23:24But one key difference is that the Met Office model more effectively takes the energy from those heavy showers and
23:33thunderstorms and pushes it towards the jet stream, strengthens that jet stream,
23:41which then sharpens this upper trough downstream.
23:43Like when you crack a whip, it's not necessarily that these changes are happening at exactly the same time.
23:50The jet stream strengthens and then that results in this sharpening of the trough,
23:57which travels all the way across the Atlantic and eventually intensifies the weather front and brings a wetter day on
24:05Saturday across those central parts of the UK.
24:07Like I say, the Met Office operational model is in the minority.
24:12Doesn't mean it won't happen.
24:13But other models just don't have that connection so effectively between the ex-hurricane remnants and the strength of the
24:23jet stream and the sharpening of the upper trough and the intensification of the weather front over the UK.
24:27And so they have more of a showery picture across central parts and then eventually those showers die away and
24:34many places end up drier later in the weekend.
24:37So I hope that made sense.
24:40But if not, send me a message, write me a comment, ask me a question.
24:47Meanwhile, all of that is taking place in the context of the strongest El Nino on record.
24:55So it's interesting to bear that in mind at the same time as seeing how these systems over the Pacific
25:05can influence the UK's weather.
25:08You can kind of see how a very strong El Nino that's developing can then affect the UK's autumnal and
25:18early winter weather.
25:19Because, of course, it's not just Hurricane Polo, we've got Hurricane Nolo as well.
25:26And it is currently one of the most active Pacific hurricane seasons on record.
25:34And we're not finished yet.
25:36It will carry on for another few months.
25:39So this graphic here just gives you an idea of all the activity across the Pacific at the moment.
25:47Hurricane Nolo just about avoided becoming Category 5 overnight.
25:52It's weakening now.
25:54It's moving away from Hawaii, having caused some considerable impacts.
25:58Polo, as I say, is making landfall.
26:03It made landfall in Baja, California earlier today.
26:06It's then going to make landfall in Mexico.
26:09And it's going to travel across the central swathe of the USA and put the rain on.
26:15You can see there's some very wet weather that is associated with it.
26:19And that's going to bring some impacts because it's going to bring way, way more rainfall to this central region
26:25of the USA than is typical for the time of year.
26:29And that's going to, like I say, impact the jet stream, strengthening it to some extent.
26:38Uncertain.
26:39But we've got these other systems also developing and forming across the Pacific.
26:45Here's one.
26:46It is a very active Pacific hurricane season.
26:51By the way, they are called hurricanes in the Pacific if they are east of the Dateline.
26:55Typhoons elsewhere in the Pacific.
26:57And while you can't attribute El Nino to individual weather events, you can't say that this rain on Saturday in
27:05the UK is caused by El Nino or Hurricane Polo is caused by El Nino because they may have happened.
27:13You get these Pacific hurricanes, you get rain in the UK, you get storms in the Atlantic every year.
27:21It's just the fact that in an El Nino year, you get more of these storms developing, more energy being
27:28released across the Pacific.
27:30And that's why you end up often with a more active jet stream running across the Pacific into the USA
27:37and ultimately affecting the Atlantic.
27:39So, yeah, you can't say that these individual events are because of El Nino, but it's the accumulation of these
27:48events through the autumn and winter that may eventually have some significance for the UK and more especially other countries
27:56that border the Pacific that can have some very extreme weather associated with very strong El Ninos.
28:05Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, we've had very wet weather in Crete.
28:13Just going to cover that briefly because there is more rain on the way and that's unusual.
28:20This shows the rainfall accumulations over the next few days.
28:23Some very wet weather, especially during Wednesday into Thursday around the northwest of Crete.
28:32Here you can see these are the rolling rain accumulations adding up.
28:36So, Chania in northwest Crete seeing 250 mils plus over the next few days.
28:43And that's on top of what we've already seen.
28:45It's already been very wet.
28:46Lots of showers and thunderstorms coming through.
28:50Already brought impacts and likely to see further impacts because in September, I believe the average monthly rainfall is 20
28:58millimetres in Crete.
28:59So, this is really quite unusual.
29:00Even in the wettest months of the year in Crete, the average rainfall is 150 millimetres.
29:06So, to get 250 millimetres in the next few days between Tuesday and Sunday is going to be very significant
29:13and likely to cause big consequences.
29:17For the UK, just to end it here, we've got any rain on Saturday easing away.
29:27And then, eventually, higher pressure building back in for the end of the weekend and for the start of next
29:39week.
29:39So, things settling down early next week with higher pressure building from the south but still staying changeable further north.
29:47Jet streams still relatively lively.
29:49You can see some deep lows turning up and interesting to see, if I put on the control run of
29:56the European model, interesting to see even out to the start to middle of next week.
30:02These deep lows are forming in the Atlantic.
30:05They're just being sent to the north of the UK on a more northward shifted jet stream.
30:10So, not directly impacting the UK so much, although still bringing some mixed weather to northern parts whilst higher pressure
30:17remains towards the south.
30:19If I put on the tracks from all the different runs of the European model, you can see various colours
30:25indicating different depths of these lows.
30:28But they all tend to be towards the north.
30:31That is until the end when there's one pokey low that turns up in the control run.
30:38Here it is that looks a little bit scary but don't believe everything you see because that's got one deep
30:47track that's entirely on its own.
30:50So, it's not found in any of the other 50 runs of the European model.
30:55It wasn't there on previous runs.
30:56It's not there in the American model run, etc, etc.
31:00So, yeah, if people are posting that kind of scary chart, I would take it with a large pinch of
31:07salt because it's very much in the minority at the moment.
31:10And I'll be covering more of that in the 10-day trend tomorrow.
31:15So, I'll have the full details on what we can expect throughout the next 10, 11 days or so on
31:21Wednesday on the Met Office YouTube channel.
31:23But for now, that's all for me.
31:25I hope you enjoyed this week's deep dive.
31:26But if there is anything that doesn't make sense or you want clarified, let me know in the comments.
31:31Bye-bye.
32:02Bye-bye.