00:01Why has Saudi Arabia, a rich country with powerful partners, been unable to stop the Houthis?
00:08The Saudi capital, Riyadh, came under attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels this weekend,
00:13days after the Saudi's partner, the U.S., signaled it will not intervene on the kingdom's behalf.
00:19Black smoke was seen rising from near Riyadh's main airport on Saturday after an explosion was
00:24heard by residents. Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a ballistic missile launched by the
00:30Houthis at Riyadh, and that a Saudi-led coalition also stopped attacks on Saudi cities, including
00:36the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, where the Houthis claimed an attack on an Aramco facility. That's
00:43the Saudi national oil company. For more on this, I'm talking to Giorgio Cafiero. He's a Middle East
00:50analyst and the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington, D.C.-based risk analysis firm.
00:57Giorgio, good to see you. The Houthis, they've been attacking Saudi Arabia now again for months,
01:06but this is the first time in a long while that they've taken aim at the capital, Riyadh.
01:11Why are we seeing this happen now?
01:18Yeah, great to be with you. You're absolutely right that for the first time since the Saudi-Houthi
01:24conflict unfroze earlier this year, we've had the Houthis now attacking the capital city, Riyadh.
01:30I think it's very clear that the Houthis are intent on escalating. They are demonstrating that they are
01:37in control of the escalation. They are making it very clear to Saudi Arabia that they do not intend to
01:43back down. And as the Ansarallah movement likes to frame it, this is about sort of an attack for an
01:52attack. And every single time the Saudis hit the capital of Yemen, they are intent on responding.
02:00And like I said, I think the Houthis are trying to make it very clear to Saudi Arabia that there
02:05will not be a military solution that's possible for Riyadh.
02:10It comes just a few days after the U.S. signal that it's not going to intervene here, that it
02:15does not
02:15want to direct conflict with the Houthis. Do you see a connection between that signal and this attack?
02:27Well, I think the Houthis definitely do not want to see the United States get involved.
02:31Last year, the Trump administration and the Houthis reached a truce. And I think the Houthis want to
02:38see that stay in place. And my understanding is that through a meeting that took place in the U.S.
02:45embassy in Muscat Oman, the Houthis signaled to the United States that they will not attack American
02:50vessels off of Yemen's west coast. I think that as the Trump administration sees the Red Sea and western
02:58Yemen, the Bab al-Mandeb really becoming the new western front, if you will, in the grander U.S.-Iran
03:04crisis, the Trump administration does not want to have the U.S. get pulled into this. And I certainly
03:12think the fact that countries in the west, as well as countries in the region, are not really coming
03:18to defend Saudi Arabia is certainly something that emboldens the Houthis.
03:24What are the Saudis' options at this point?
03:29Well, that's a really good question. Let's note what's obvious. There are not really any good
03:36options for the kingdom at this point. I think we all remember from 2015 to 2022 when the Saudis were
03:45very involved in their military intervention against the Houthis in Yemen. That military campaign was an
03:52absolute disaster for Riyadh. The Houthis are very disciplined. For them, war is kind of a way of
04:00life. They have also become more sophisticated in their tactics now using AI. All of this is to say,
04:07I don't think an intensified Saudi military campaign is going to ultimately deter the Houthis. I don't
04:14think that would end well for Saudi Arabia. I also do not see other countries, whether we're talking
04:21about Riyadh's partners in the west or the allies in the Mecca defense pact, coming to Saudi Arabia's
04:29defense and getting involved directly in the fight against the Houthis. I think as painful as this is
04:36for many in Saudi Arabia to accept, I think probably the best option, or maybe a better way of putting
04:42that, the least awful option for Saudi Arabia would be to take advantage of opportunities to engage
04:49Iran and the Houthis through Omani and other channels and try to work on creating a new order
04:57in the region. Not one where the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is completely eliminated,
05:05but one where Riyadh and Tehran and other players in the region are able to control tensions,
05:12find established mechanisms for de-escalation, and to try to get the Saudi-Iranian detente back
05:20on track. I think that will obviously require Saudi Arabia to make some concessions
05:25to the Houthis. Those will be painful concessions, but I think at the end of the day,
05:32this is Saudi Arabia's most realistic option for restoring peace and stability in the kingdom.
05:40But the instability in this region, especially with the Houthis gaining more control along the Red
05:46Sea and the chokehold at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that you mentioned, it does have effects not just on
05:53Saudi Arabia, right? The Houthis have the power now to inflict pain on many countries if they choose to
06:03cut off trade at that chokehold where millions of barrels of oil pass through every day. So are the
06:11Saudis just left alone with this problem that is actually kind of a global problem at this point?
06:20Well, you're absolutely right that this is not simply a bilateral problem between Yemen and Saudi
06:25Arabia. This is certainly a global problem. I think a way to explain this is the Houthis have been
06:33engaged in blackmail extortion. We need to call it what it is. And it's certainly difficult for Saudi
06:42Arabia to make concessions to a very powerful group in Yemen that is engaged practices. But I do think
06:49that ultimately there have to be certain concessions made to the Houthis in order to restore stability in
06:55this body of water. Do you see Saudi Arabia really making concessions though? Will they not be concerned
07:01about saving face after being attacked by a much less powerful, much poorer group, which is what the
07:11Houthis are compared to Saudi Arabia? Well, I certainly agree that Saudi Arabia will have many
07:21concerns about the types of precedents that get set from making concessions to the Houthis after they
07:27engage in these types of tactics, these warfare tactics against the kingdom. But at the same time,
07:34Saudi Arabia needs Vision 2030 to succeed. The country has to successfully diversify its economy
07:40beyond oil. This requires bringing in foreign investment. This requires making Saudi Arabia an
07:47attractive country from the standpoint of tourism, entertainment, business. That's not going to be
07:54possible if missiles and drones from Yemen and elsewhere in the region keep on pounding sensitive
08:00sites in Saudi Arabia. So I think that Saudi Arabia focused on making Vision 2030 succeed is going
08:07to have to recalibrate. And I think ultimately, there's going to have to be a diplomatic solution
08:13to this crisis. I do not think that the Saudis, especially on their own, without support from the
08:20US, Europe, or countries in the region such as Turkey and Pakistan, are going to succeed in deterring
08:27the Houthi rebels. For seven years, they tried to do that, and they failed. The Houthis are all the more
08:33powerful now. I just don't think that that's a realistic path for Saudi Arabia at this point.
08:39Giorgio Caffiero from Gulf State Analytics. Thanks so much for your insights, Giorgio.
