00:10welcome everyone my guest today is bill kilmer he's the chief lobbyist at the mortgage bankers
00:15association to talk about what might we see in the midterm elections and how that could affect
00:20housing bill thank you so much for being here thank you sir i appreciate the invitation we just
00:26got off stage a little while ago at the mortgage banking summit here in dallas and great discussion
00:32there that i wanted to continue here because this is a big one so let's start at the top and
00:38talk
00:38about what do the polls show um do we think there's going to be a big change in the midterms
00:43there
00:43usually is some change um that two-year political cycle right what what are you guys seeing uh well
00:50you know sarah you and i were talking earlier that historically any president republican or democrat
00:55typically in the midterm election cycle has some pressure based on you know that administration
01:02being held accountable particularly if their party also is in control of the congress and that's the
01:08situation for republicans but even since you and i were first talking a couple weeks ago about this
01:14event uh things have really been moving in the democrats direction and the polling reflects that i
01:20think there's so much more polling that a lot of it's erratic but the trusted polling sources are
01:28are really showing that democrats have got a tailwind particularly in the senate um the house the
01:35conventional wisdom has been that you know because of the historical precedent and uh just the way that
01:41redistricting and and and and and some of the other factors uh have played out that democrats have a
01:48very serious shot to retake the majority from republicans the question is how large will the margin
01:54of majority be if they in fact do get that kind of mini wave to help them do that and
02:00um you know
02:03a month ago i would have said there are 24 25 really competitive house seats now it's probably more
02:09like 35 to 40 and um i i do think it's a question of what margin of majority is if
02:17it's 10 or less
02:18that's not a real large working majority we've seen how that's impacted republicans and speaker
02:22johnson and his leadership team and how tough it is for them to corral votes i think the same thing
02:28would be true for democrats but uh i if you asked me today i'd say republicans are looking at holding
02:37the majority but maybe just with a 50 50 uh ratio and that would mean democrats had netted three seats
02:44uh it's entirely possible that they could have a clear majority and actually be in control but if
02:50it's 50 50 the vice president is the president of the senate would break ties and we've been through
02:55that as a country several times here recently um but that that would have major implications for
03:03the administration in terms of oversight and that will bleed not only from the white house through
03:09you know uh national security and the pentagon and those agencies that are affected but certainly
03:14into the housing space as well so um if we take a concert not conservative but maybe a middle of
03:20the road view that you know one house we're gonna is gonna change as per normal what does that look
03:25like versus if there's a you know uh a blue wave if you if you will both houses yeah and
03:31i i'm kind
03:32of laughingly referring to a way a blue wave would mean a majority of more than 10 seats and definitely
03:40having the senate flip to go uh democratic it would be more like purple rain if only one
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