00:00For the last, let's say, 30 days, we've been highlighting the Gulf and the Southeast Atlantic
00:07as areas to watch for development. It hasn't happened yet. And I do think moving forward,
00:13that is an area to watch. But I must tell you, as the title says, I'm not impressed for development.
00:19I think in the end, there's just going to be too much wind shear. All right, I'm going to explain
00:23why in a second. A really quick review, not too long, but here's where we are right now.
00:28Eight named storms. We should be at about 11. All right. So we're running below historical
00:35averages, maybe about a month. By the way, we're running about a month, if not a month and a half
00:43ahead of where we should be in the Eastern Pacific. So it kind of averages out below in the Atlantic,
00:50well above in the Eastern Pacific. But eight named storms below historical averages. But here's the
00:55big story. No hurricanes. This is the latest occurrence of the first hurricane in over a
01:03hundred years. Now, it gets a little tricky because before 1966, you didn't have satellites. So there
01:08could have been hurricanes out in the Atlantic we didn't see. But having said that, the last time we
01:13had a hurricane this late, and I believe it was September 21st, 1941. All right. Now, there were two
01:21years that we didn't have any hurricanes. I think it was 1907 and 1914. But again, that was before the
01:27satellite era. But I mean, it's been very quiet not to have any hurricanes. We should have five
01:32hurricanes right now. We don't have any. And of those five hurricanes, we should have two majors.
01:38That's category three or greater. We don't have any. So I mean, that that's pretty significant.
01:43We have had impacts, though, on the United States, no doubt about that. Edward, Arthur and Bertha.
01:52Bertha did have impacts, but I think it was pretty negligible. There were significant impacts with
01:58Arthur, by the way, although I must say Arthur had more impacts when it was a tropical rainstorm than it
02:04was a tropical storm, quite honestly. And Edward brought rain and wind. And that almost was a hurricane.
02:12So that's something to keep an eye on. And I believe Faye is going to have to be watched.
02:16You know, it got close to hurricane status. I believe it was Faye, but it did not in some
02:22reanalysis later in the season. Perhaps it will be. But right now, no hurricanes. All right. Now,
02:28having said that, let me show where we are right now. We do have a lot of noise going on
02:36in the
02:36Atlantic Basin as far as showers and thunderstorms. You can see it. A few tropical waves that we're
02:42watching. One, one, one, one. Look at all of this noise in the Gulf and Caribbean. You can see why
02:52we're worried about that area. You have an upper low in here, and it's pulling areas north. But here's
02:57the problem. And this has been the huge issue all year. Look at the wind shear. I mean, you do
03:03have
03:04pockets of low wind shear in here. You could see it with the light purples, right? But let's say you
03:11get a tropical wave coming off Africa that makes it into this area south of 20 degrees north. Okay,
03:17it develops. But then before we get to the United States, here's a wind shear. Here's a wind shear.
03:23Here's a wind shear. Here's a wind shear. So it nothing can develop and get to the United States. I'm
03:29not
03:29complaining about that. I mean, it makes life a lot better. But that's what's been going on. There's
03:36just too much wind shear. So the question is, is why? Well, the Super El Nino, usually doing El Nino's
03:42strong wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, and then favorable conditions more favorable in the Eastern
03:48Pacific. That's where we've been. Now, this is what we call a Super El Nino. And I have some stats
03:53for
03:54and this is the kind of stuff you got to look at here. You know, since 1950, we've had three
04:02Super
04:03El Nino's, 82, 97, and 2015. Of those years, there's only been two hurricanes during the month of
04:11October or after October 1st. That was 2015 with Joaquin and Kate. The other years, 1982 and 1997,
04:21there wasn't any. So I think odds are against any hurricanes forming from here on out. I think
04:26odds are against it. Now, when you look at the breeding grounds in October, this is where you
04:32look. You start looking closer to home. September, the entire basin is open for business. But in
04:37October, you start getting closer and closer to the United States. Now, as I mentioned, we've got a lot
04:43of noise going on right now in the Caribbean. You've got an upper low in here. You can see it's
04:49spinning. And you've got a lot of showers and thunderstorms in here. Now, this upper low
04:53is going to be sitting into the Bay of Campeche as we go forward here. But the question is,
05:01is what is going to form in there? So there's the upper low. You can see it. You see it
05:06right in here.
05:08So it's sitting in very warm water. But here's the problem for development. Look at the wind
05:12shear. I'm going to show you two different wind shears. You've got two. This is 200 millibars high up in
05:18the atmosphere. Southeasterly wind shear. Right. Let's look at the other wind shear product.
05:23Too much wind shear. Now, there's low wind shear on a top for a time in this era on Saturday.
05:29But watch as we get in the Sunday. You've got too much wind shear in here. So, OK, let's say
05:35something would try to form in here as it tries to go north Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. Look at the
05:40wind shear. It strengthens in the Wednesday. You see that? This system is going to try to develop,
05:47but I don't think there's a way it gets to the United States. And I don't think we have any
05:52concerns there. We're going to keep an eye on it. We have this highlighted in here. We have it
05:58highlighted for a low development area. I just think even if it tries to develop and comes north,
06:04it won't make it. I just think there's too much wind shear. And this is a problem we've seen all
06:10year.
06:11Now, later in the period, next week, the next thing to watch is this frontal boundary that's
06:18going to come south. Right here. See? Thursday, Friday, you've got a front in here. Lots of
06:24showers and thunderstorms in here, right? OK, what does the wind shear look like during this period?
06:30Well, take a look at it. Too much wind shear. This is next week. How is anything going to develop
06:36in here? So we're going to watch this area. But as I mentioned, Bernie is very skeptical
06:44of anything forming here in the next two weeks. We'll keep an eye on it.
06:48I just don't think it happens. And that's the feed.
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