- 12 minutes ago
Rich asked Ted Johnson if there was a path to a Patriots victory against the Bills in Buffalo this weekend. Ted was able to break down the matchup and give Pats fans a little bit of hope.
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00Where do you see the drop-off between weeks two and weeks three
00:02with that defense?
00:04It was pretty significant.
00:07Yeah.
00:07They just, I mean, they're just too leaky in the run game.
00:11And then the red zone defense.
00:14Cool.
00:15Five for five against.
00:16Five for five against.
00:17Red zone and third down defense are, to me,
00:21two big indicators on how well you played that day.
00:25And for them to be 100% in the red zone, not good, man.
00:28Well, so you've got Drake May, obviously, who's having a hard time.
00:32And you also have the Bills with the highest scoring offense in the league.
00:36I think it's like 33.6 points or something like that.
00:39I mean, you know, we talk about Josh Allen's turnovers,
00:41but the one thing about Josh Allen is he makes up for it
00:43by doing something else ridiculous.
00:44Yeah, so they averaged 33 points, and the Patriots offense averages, what, eight?
00:49Is that what it is?
00:49Like eight points?
00:50It's early.
00:51It's quite a swing.
00:52You've played the toughest schedule.
00:54You threw that out in the article that Tice wrote, right, for Yahoo,
00:56that was like the toughest schedule, best defenses in the league.
00:59You're causing that because you don't score against them,
01:02so their defensive numbers are good.
01:03But anyway, just to finish the injury report,
01:05Barmore and Gonzalez out, yes.
01:07Schooler out.
01:08Seven players questionable, including Christian Ellis, Reggie Gilliam,
01:11Draymond Jones, Morgan Moses, Eli Raritan, Craig Woodson,
01:14and Channing Canada.
01:15So it could be even worse than that.
01:17Wow.
01:17Week four, and they've already had more injuries than they did all last season.
01:19Oh, yeah.
01:20That's wild.
01:20So that begs the question, how do you win this game?
01:24It just seems like this is one of those where you're just about to walk
01:28into a meat grinder, but I've never played the game.
01:32There are certain things that people who have played the game see
01:35that nobody else does.
01:36And that's why, Ted, I was just like, there's got to be some sort of path
01:42that the Patriots see.
01:44And now they might have to execute everything perfectly for it to work
01:48and also have a little luck on their side, but what is the path?
01:51How do the Patriots beat the Bills this weekend?
01:55If they can't make 10 trades for five offensive guys and five defensive guys,
02:00if they can't do that, well, this is what I would suggest, all right?
02:03And I'm going to get a little technical, but I'll try not to bog down too much.
02:08I'm taking notes here.
02:09All right, here we go.
02:09You ready?
02:10First thing, and our guy, Pat Boyle, he said the way you stop Buffalo's offense.
02:17So I'll just say, from a defensive standpoint, what the defense needs to do
02:21is make them one-dimensional.
02:23Make them almost have to pass the ball.
02:27Can you stop James Cook from being effective?
02:30But you have to do it with too high safeties because you've got to protect
02:34the big play.
02:36Josh Allen's a big play guy, but you've got to stop the run.
02:39So you've got to put two safeties deep.
02:40If you have two safeties deep, that means you have a light box.
02:43You've got to stop the run with a light box.
02:46That's going to be hugely important.
02:47You cannot have James Cook averaging five yards per carry, or they're screwed.
02:51And by the way, Cook's averaging over five a carry in their three tight end sets.
02:55So they do go to that a lot, which is bizarre.
02:56You think they're open and high flying.
02:59You know what sucks is that the Patriots might match it with their base personnel.
03:02They're worse against the run in base personnel than they are in their lighter
03:07defenses, which is not...
03:09You can't win!
03:10You can't win!
03:11All right, so no big plays.
03:13Make Josh work for everything.
03:16The more opportunities he has, the more you kind of make him dink and dunk, the more opportunities
03:22you give yourself on defense a chance to get a turnover.
03:26Okay.
03:26So the more plays he runs, if he's just striking fast, you're screwed.
03:32Real quick.
03:32If you make him...
03:33Scale of one to ten, how probable is that for the Patriots?
03:35They're going to be able to do that.
03:36Yeah.
03:36They did that last year in Buffalo.
03:38It was 6-3 at the half.
03:39They played a lot of man defense and just made them go long fields, and they had a couple
03:42of takeaways.
03:43Yeah, yeah.
03:43And Josh had five turnovers last week in a winning effort.
03:49So make them dink and dunk, more chance that he'll make a mistake.
03:53Timely blitzing.
03:54They didn't...
03:55Three of the touchdown passes last week, they didn't blitz.
03:59Like, they got to be...
04:01Not only are they needing to manufacture pressure with blitzing, but you've got to do it at the
04:06right time.
04:07All right?
04:08And then just be excellent, be way better in the red zone.
04:11They were 100% last week against the Patriots' defense.
04:15Make them be, you know, maybe 25%, all right?
04:18Third down defense, 30% or less conversion rate.
04:21And so...
04:21And then if you can, be plus two on the turnover ratio.
04:25There we go.
04:25You've got to be plus two on the turnover ratio.
04:27And then on the offensive side, the Patriots need to have more quick solutions on offense,
04:33meaning guys need to get open fast and where?
04:36In the middle of the field.
04:38So, out routes, that's a hard pass to make.
04:41Can we get guys open in the middle of the field?
04:43Yeah.
04:44Hunter Henry, maybe.
04:45Hunter Henry, hello.
04:45But just bunch formations, emotions, short motions to get guys free and off the line
04:52and then into the middle of the field.
04:54That's the easiest throw for the quarterback to make.
04:56And then just more run game creativity.
04:58I mean, you talked about the metrics you read.
04:59Yep.
04:59Just until it's a very predictable run game.
05:02It's the same two plays over and over.
05:03Over and over and over again.
05:04And so, more creativity.
05:06And then if the Patriots running backs can, just like Pat Boyle said, 35 carries or more,
05:13that means the Patriots are controlling the ball.
05:15They're keeping the ball out of Josh Allen's hands.
05:17That gives you a better chance to win.
05:19So, that's my game plan to stop these guys.
05:22Can they execute it?
05:24Probably not.
05:24But that's the game plan.
05:26Yeah, but that would be the goal.
05:27Yeah.
05:27All right.
05:28So, back to the two running plays that have been run over and over again.
05:33It's an amazing stat.
05:34And it wasn't just the guy from Yahoo Sports, but there are a couple other people reporting
05:37it this week, is that they've become so predictable.
05:39And of anything, in the run game, it's been blatant.
05:43Why do you think that they continue to run the same two plays over and over?
05:47Do you think that might have something to do with, like, they just don't have the talent
05:51to be able to do anything else other than that?
05:53Or what are you seeing?
05:54It goes back to Josh.
05:56So, he's basically, anytime Drake sees two high safeties, or any defense where there's
06:04two high safeties or more, they check to a run.
06:08And the run is usually what they call a draw play.
06:11You've heard a draw play?
06:12Yeah, yeah.
06:12Okay.
06:13It's basically the offensive linemen are pass setting so that you think it's a pass, and
06:19then they run a ball.
06:19Well, it's a passive way of run blocking.
06:22If you pass set, and then you kind of go on to your guy, that's not coming off the
06:27ball.
06:27That's not pushing guys off the line of scrimmage.
06:29And so, it's a very passive way to run the ball is these draw plays.
06:33And so, they would go into the call in the huddle.
06:36They make the call.
06:37It's a pass play.
06:38And they go, oh, Drake, but check into a run versus two high safety.
06:42He checks into a run versus two high safety.
06:44And it's a draw play.
06:45And it's a very passive kind of way to run the football.
06:49And that's a big part of the problem.
06:50They're predictable.
06:51And then when they do run the ball, it's a passive way to run the football.
06:55Can I ask you, why do you think Hunter Henry has regressed?
06:57There was something in this article that talked about how his speed has declined.
07:03It just continues to go down.
07:05And they've even got the numbers to back it up.
07:06But it just seems like he's been a non-factor.
07:09I think he's dealing with the arm issue.
07:13Okay.
07:14Not listed.
07:15Better get that on the interview.
07:16Nope, nope.
07:17But I think he's dealing with an arm issue.
07:20Yeah.
07:22I've heard some whispers of an arm issue.
07:24Don't you say that on this station.
07:25So, to me, his blocking has been horrendous.
07:30Like, he's been terrible.
07:32So, I think he's dealing with something that he's good enough to play,
07:37but he's not nearly as effective as he usually is.
07:39Just one note on the speed on this article that Tice wrote.
07:42His average route speed has dropped from 12.06 miles per hour to 11.53 miles per hour.
07:48So, we're talking about a half a mile per hour.
07:50It's minimal, you know.
07:52Once again.
07:52We're reaching a little bit there.
07:54Well, listen.
07:55Maybe we're reaching, but the one thing we can say is that with our own eyes,
07:58the guy hasn't been effective.
08:00But I'll just say this.
08:01That much decline, that's all it takes in football.
08:04I mean, in that league, you know, a little bit of decline like that is all you need
08:09for the defender to, now he's getting blanketed.
08:11He forced the missed tackle, though.
08:13Nobody else on the receiving end.
08:14That's insane.
08:16That was another stat that came out of this, is that the wide receivers have forced zero
08:21missed tackles this season.
08:22Zero.
08:23Hunter Henry's only forced one.
08:25And everyone else, zero.
08:26I mean, the minute they catch it, boom, they go down.
08:29That is damning.
08:31Let's go to Boston Bar Guy in line one.
08:33Hey, Bar Guy.
08:33What's up there, buddy?
08:34Perfect.
08:35Hey, what's up, guys?
08:37KDG, I was just listening to your rundown.
08:39And I got in my car like five minutes ago, and I was listening to Bar Guy.
08:43I had no idea about all these injuries.
08:45I didn't know Gonzalez was out.
08:46I didn't know that.
08:47But the only hope I'm thinking of right now, because after listening to you guys,
08:52when I got in the car for like two minutes and going on, I'm thinking we're going to
08:56get beat 45 to like 10.
08:59I think this is what I'm forced to get a W.
09:04Our defense is banged up.
09:06Our offense, Drake's got to have a breakout game.
09:09And we've got to win a 38-33 bond burner.
09:14That's all I can see right now.
09:17Boston Bar Guy, I love your optimism.
09:21You've been boozing?
09:22What you doing right now?
09:25I did just start.
09:29But, Teddy J, I'm listening to you, and I'm saying to myself,
09:32he's grasping you at straws here and there.
09:36And you know you're stuck, Teddy J.
09:38You're a homer.
09:40You're a homer.
09:43If you weren't a homer, you'd be going like, they're going to get their ass kicked.
09:47You're the one who just predicted them to win 38-33.
09:50The guy is drunk.
09:52I'm saying that because I'm a homer, too.
09:56And I'm just thinking of the way out.
09:57The only way we win is for Drake to snap out of his funk, for our receivers to get open,
10:03and run the right routes, and let's go.
10:05Boston Bar Guy, I do have to clarify one thing, because you obviously didn't hear the beginning
10:09of the break.
10:09I asked Ted.
10:11I was like, I don't see any way to win this.
10:13Ted, if there is any possible way for them to win, give me that route.
10:18Ted didn't offer and say, here's how they're going to win.
10:20It was like, man, the roads are murky.
10:24Just give me some sort of hope.
10:25And they have to do all of those things for that to happen.
10:29It'll be a huge job, you boys, if we get it done.
10:32But it's going to be tough.
10:33Yeah.
10:33All right.
10:34See you, brother.
10:35Douglas, if they win.
10:36But by the way, can I bet you about this?
10:37Third straight home game for the Bills.
10:39What's that about?
10:41You get the Patriots at the end of a three-game homestand in your new stadium.
10:45Talk about unfair for a division game.
10:47How rare is that?
10:48Every now and then, you get that in the schedule, though.
10:51Patriots have had hosted three home games before in a row.
10:54Yeah, I'm sure they have.
10:54I just don't.
10:55For a division game, what a cushy lead-in here.
10:59By the way, can we all just step back and just say that Boston Bargay thought that the
11:02Patriots are going to score 38 points?
11:04Yeah.
11:04I like it.
11:05Yikes.
11:06How many of those are the defense score?
11:08Yeah, seriously.
11:09The guy is drunk!
11:10Five defensive touchdowns on a board of Dallas field.
11:12Hey, maybe that could happen.
11:14Maybe that could happen.
11:14Chris Jones is due on special teams.
11:16That's right.