00:00The polls got it wrong. Brazil just delivered the biggest election shock of the year.
00:05Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has beaten President Lula in the first round of Brazil's presidential
00:10election, and almost nobody saw it coming. With more than 97% of votes counted,
00:17Flavio Bolsonaro took 47.45% of valid votes. President Lula finished second, with 44.66%.
00:26Neither candidate crossed the 50% mark needed to win outright.
00:30So, Brazil is heading to a runoff, and it is set for October 25th.
00:36Let us break down what just happened, and why it matters far beyond Brazil.
00:40First, the man of the hour. Flavio Bolsonaro is 45 years old,
00:45a sitting senator, and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
00:50His father is in prison right now, serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup
00:55after losing the 2022 election. Now the son is trying to bring his father's right-wing
01:01movement back to power, and he is closer than anyone expected. Flavio represents the liberal
01:07party, and he campaigned as the business-friendly challenger promising change.
01:11But here is the real story of the night. The final opinion polls had Lula leading by about
01:17three percentage points. Almost every major survey said Lula would finish first. Instead,
01:23Bolsonaro beat the forecasts, and the pollsters missed badly. One leading expert put it bluntly.
01:30The pollsters missed badly, he said, and the runoff polls may be understating Bolsonaro too.
01:36So why did the polls get it wrong? Analysts point to what they call protest votes.
01:42These are voters who oppose Lula, but were expected to save their vote for the second round.
01:47Instead, they voted for Bolsonaro early in the first round, pushing him well past the forecasts.
01:54The campaign itself was dominated by the cost of living, corruption, and insecurity on the streets.
02:00Despite worries about public finances and slow economic growth, there was almost no real policy
02:05debate. Both leading candidates skipped the major television debates. Nearly 160 million Brazilians
02:12were eligible to vote in Latin America's largest economy. Voting is compulsory in Brazil,
02:18and electronic voting machines counted the ballots within hours. Bolsonaro voted in Rio de Janeiro,
02:24telling reporters that Brazil needs change and that the country cannot bear any more suffering.
02:30His liberal party also performed strongly in Congress, where all 513 lower house seats were contested.
02:37And the markets noticed. Brazil's currency and stock market have been rising on the prospect of a
02:43business-friendly challenger. Lula, who is 80 years old and seeking a fourth term, called the result
02:49unexpected. He told supporters that a new campaign would begin tomorrow. Now, all eyes turned to October 25th,
02:57and the stakes could not be higher. A Bolsonaro victory would extend a wave of right-wing wins across Latin
03:03America, with leaders aligned to United States President Donald Trump. A Lula comeback would
03:09be a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security.
03:14The next presidential term begins on January 5th, 2027. Twelve candidates started this race. Only two
03:22remain. In three weeks, Brazil decides. For daily coverage of the Brazil runoff and breaking world news from
03:29every corner of the globe, subscribe to News Plus Globe. Turn on notifications and never miss a story.
