00:00Where can Lula get the votes to overtake Flavio Bolsonaro?
00:04For Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, the night of Sunday, October 4th, left an uncomfortable figure.
00:092.2 million. That's the gap separating him from Flavio Bolsonaro after the first round and the
00:15number of Brazilians he needs to win over to stay in the presidency.
00:19With 100% of the polling stations counted, the far-right senator obtained 47.03% of the votes.
00:26about 56.1 million, and the president kept 45.16%, about 53.8 million.
00:34It's a small gap, but nobody expected those numbers, as almost all the polls
00:39They gave the leftist leader the upper hand. Politically, for example, they gave Lula 43.1%.
00:45compared to 40.7% for his rival. The president himself admitted that the result was unexpected.
00:56People never get everything they want. I confess to you that I was convinced
01:02that I was going to win the election in the first round. But I've thought that before too.
01:10And now it's time for people to show the true picture of Brazil.
01:16There are three places where you can look for votes. The largest share isn't with any one candidate.
01:21Abstention reached 21.08%, which is equivalent to about 33 million Brazilians who did not vote.
01:28Analysts agree that the absence hurts Lula more than Bolsonaro.
01:32because their base is in the poorest sectors, for whom going to vote costs more,
01:36and in the northeast, far from the major urban centers.
01:39On Sunday, storms in Sao Paulo and a fine of just 3.51 reais for not voting,
01:45They didn't help. If the workers' party manages to mobilize even a fraction of those absent,
01:50The gap could close. On the other hand, there are the three candidates who trailed the frontrunners.
01:55which together garnered some 8.7 million votes. Self-help author Augusto Curi, with 2.89%,
02:02about 3.4 million. Renan Santos, from the right-wing party, Misao, with 2.24%, about 2.7 million.
02:11And the former governor of Goyas, Ronaldo Callado, with 2.18, about 2.6 million.
02:16The problem for Lula is that the numbers don't match the ideology. Santos and Callado
02:21They come from the right, and although their voters did not want to vote for Bolsonaro in the first round,
02:26It's not certain they'll switch to the Workers' Party either. Flavio already considers it a done deal.
02:30On Sunday he asserted that a significant portion of anti-Lula voters had already joined his cause.
02:35candidacy. Curi, with a more difficult-to-define electorate, may be the most contested piece.
02:41Finally, Lula has an advantage his rival doesn't: he can govern while campaigning.
02:46This week, Congress is scheduled to vote on ending the 6x1 pay scale, reducing the workweek
02:52a work stoppage of 6 to 5 days without loss of pay, a very popular measure among workers such as
02:59who voted on Sunday. In his speech, the president also defended fiscal stability and
03:04investment in education, and pointed to Flavio's sinister biography, due to his alleged
03:09links to paramilitary groups and to the Master Bank scandal.
03:12There is also an issue that could sway undecided voters: the Supreme Court. The next president
03:18He will be able to appoint four of the 11 justices of the Supreme Federal Court, the seat he left vacant
03:23Luis Roberto Barroso in 2025 and those of Luis Fux, Carmen Lucía and Gilmar Méndez, who must retire
03:30between 2028 and 2030. It's the same court that convicted Jair Bolsonaro, and Flavio already said
03:37who will choose judges who will not interfere in elections. Lula can turn that into his
03:42A banner of democracy against barbarism. The risk is that if he wins, he will have chosen 8 of the
03:4711 members of the Court, an argument that Bolsonarism will not let pass either, and where
03:52The campaign will also be played.
03:54"I'm very good at one-on-one debates," Lula said on Sunday. "We'll know on October 25th if I've made it."
