00:03I think one of the main issues or challenges for the region would be, and this is something that I
00:10just spoke on stage,
00:11is that we will have to deal with increasingly multi-crisis.
00:16That means having different challenges and crises in different theaters simultaneously, rather than one crisis in one area.
00:23So navies and governments and policy makers would have to attend to or address multiple different crises emerging across the
00:33theaters that they're interested in.
00:34And I think it's going to be an issue of resources, an issue of priority, an issue of capacity and
00:42national interest,
00:43and I think that is what really is going to be adding to the uncertainty and fragmentation of what we
00:49are seeing today,
00:49is that it's not just one issue and one threat, it's a poly-crisis, it's a multi-crisis, crisis across
00:58and simultaneously.
00:59I think that really is going to be a massive challenge on resource and resource constraints.
01:05I think in the last decade we have really had thresholds on what we can consider as a crisis that
01:13would create this sort of a destruction or a disruption, right?
01:17But we've seen that while we are waiting for a crisis like, say, Taiwan to happen, we are already in
01:24the midst of multiple different crises.
01:26The Hormuz crisis has completely disrupted energy lines and has impacted Asian economies.
01:32It is an ongoing life crisis that is happening.
01:35And I think the challenge again here is waiting for a crisis that has been defined by particular governments
01:41as the ultimate crisis that will have a regional impact rather than actually dealing with all the different crises that
01:49are coming around.
01:49So whether a crisis around Taiwan erupts or not, there are going to be multiple challenges in the region
01:57that will test the resilience and the security of nations across the Indo-Pacific and in Europe.
02:03And the question really is then, do governments wait around for that ultimate crisis to happen or do you have
02:09to start preparing?
02:10And do you have the space to start responding to these challenges?
02:14I think Arctic is a really important waterway and a space generally, whether it's from economic biodiversity and as an
02:21alternative route.
02:23But I still do think the way the maritime trade is designed and it functions today, the choke points as
02:31they stand today,
02:32whether it's Hormuz, whether it's Malacca, whether it's Babel Mandeb or Cape of Good Hope, they carry the bulk of
02:38maritime shipping.
02:3980% of world's trade is seaborne. It happens at sea.
02:43So yes, I think when, if and when the Arctic becomes a viable option, I think nations who have the
02:51ability to utilize that path would do so.
02:55But I am not sure that it will replace the existing ceilings of communications and choke points.
03:02So whether that becomes a continuity and an alternative that is as viable as the existing, I'm not sure.
03:10But whether that can become an alternate way nations can access in the moment of crisis, I think yes.
