00:00In fact, I would argue all the economic data over the last two weeks has been actually slightly on the
00:06weaker side.
00:07Inflation came in a little bit softer. We had the jobs report. That was not weak, but it was not
00:12strong.
00:12We're not seeing signs of overheating or demand-led inflation.
00:16Even Fed officials have come out and said maybe one or two more rate hikes.
00:20The market's pricing in three more rate hikes.
00:22So I would argue this last bit is sort of position, capitulation, technical factors, there's negative convexity in mortgages.
00:30I think people are hedging the rate move, and that's why the move looks a little overdone.
00:34So we're now thinking duration, which we've not been in duration for a while.
00:39It starts to make sense to own a little bit, take some duration risk, because that last 25, 30 basis
00:44points seems a bit overdone.
