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Ragananthini Vethasalam sits down with Ilham Centre executive director Hizommudin Bakar to unpack the dynamics shaping up for the Melaka state elections.
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00:05Hello everyone. Welcome to the Poll Position Podcast. We are back again with another state elections edition. This time, it
00:13is Melaka.
00:14We just had a busy couple of months with Negeri Sembilan and Johor. Now we have Melaka which shares borders
00:22with both states.
00:23So this will be an interesting elections to watch because this is also the last state polls in Peninsular Malaysia
00:30before we head straight into GE16.
00:33So expect an eventful month ahead with polling dates set on November 14. And there's a lot to unpack here.
00:42And to help us do that, we have a very special guest in the studio today, Encik Hisaw Mudin Bakar,
00:48Executive Director of Earlham Centre,
00:50who is known for his elections and political analysis. So how are you feeling today, Encik Hisaw Mudin?
00:58I'm okay. I'm fine.
01:01Are you ready for another election?
01:03Yes.
01:04Yes. No election fatigue.
01:06No election fatigue.
01:08Okay.
01:09So, Encik Hisaw Mudin, we just saw two different situations down south in Negeri Sembilan and Johor.
01:21The elections were called under different circumstances. Now we have Melaka. Melaka shares a border with Negeri Sembilan and Johor.
01:29How is the Melaka elections going to be different from both Negeri Sembilan and Johor?
01:35Firstly, thank you for this session, Raga and The Star, especially the Pole Position Podcast for inviting me today.
01:48To answer that question, Melaka have a very special situation based on the result itself.
01:58If we look into the result of the late of state election in 2021, it shows PN is very strong
02:13there.
02:15And then, after that, if we look at the GE result, GE 2022 result, the signal or the message from
02:26that GE result is very different from the state election result.
02:31So, from 2021, BM secured 21 out of 28 seats. That's more than two-thirds of majority, right?
02:42And then, after that, if we look into the GE result, 2022, if we break down the result based on
02:55the state boundaries,
02:57PN won round four DUN only from 2021, the result from the state election.
03:09So, difference is very huge. This result shows us the set of different environment of political environment and the set
03:23of voters.
03:26Because in 2021, state election, without undi 18 and automatic voters registration not implemented yet.
03:39After that, when the new cohort of demographic based on new age and the automatic voters registration not implemented,
03:51and then the results are very, very different from the state election.
03:56How is it different from Johor and Negeri Sembilan?
03:59Based on the latest, what we call the trend about penyatuan Melayu from maybe begins on Johor and then continue
04:15to Negeri Sembilan.
04:17But, for me, to read this situation, we must read how BN missionaries and BN strategists to mapping their maybe
04:32electoral pact or political cooperation with other party.
04:36In Johor, BN or UMNO not give clear electoral pact with other parties like PAS or Perikatan Nasional at that
04:50level.
04:51But, in Negeri Sembilan, this cooperation within two parties, especially Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional is very clear.
05:01So, in Malaika, still, I believe, still this party still negotiate the best, what we call the best situation for
05:14both parties, especially BN and PN.
05:18And, in Malaika also, you know, after a register of society ban of Perikatan Nasional logo, maybe, this election, PN
05:32is no more can use their logo.
05:35And, PN maybe, maybe use a PAS logo.
05:40So, that's maybe slightly different from that situation based on how voters see this dynamic in state election.
05:53And, now that they might use the same logo, how does it, how will it play out for Bersatu and
06:01PAS if they use their own logo?
06:04Yeah, Bersatu, three parties, three parties can play the effect of this result based on, you can see, eh, Perikatan
06:20Nasional have four components, right?
06:22Hmm.
06:24Uh, perawasan, PAS, MIPP and, eh, gerakan.
06:29Gerakan, yeah.
06:30For components party.
06:32And, eh, Bersatu, uh, maybe not, uh, in this component anymore.
06:40So, Bersatu excluded from this arrangement. So, now, what we see, the new alignment of Bersatu can see if can
06:53cooperate with Pakatan Harapan. I believe this still in negotiation process between Pakatan Harapan and Bersatu.
07:07So, Melaka is a very tourism-centric state. We all want to go to Melaka if there's a short holiday
07:16and so on. What are the bread and butter issues that is important for the voters in Melaka that they
07:22want to see the government do?
07:25So, the bread and butter issue is very important. I will draw a distinction between problem voters face every day
07:38and what issue that shape their final voters during the campaign period.
07:48Two weeks' campaign period is very important for the voters to decide.
07:53So, based on our experience during the research and survey, you know, when we interviewed the people or the voters,
08:07in the interview, you can see the rational voters respond to us about their problem about the rising cost of
08:18living and then their wage job opportunities for their children.
08:25And then, when come during campaign period, the sentiment is very different.
08:33The emotion, their anger from the voters because the campaign period may be effected by social media campaign, you know,
08:46statement from the leaders' controversy during the campaign, so that affected mostly for the people and for the voters.
08:57So, tourism, for me, tourism is not what we call, not different from the bread and butter issue because tourism
09:09is linked to the jobs, their income.
09:14Because tourism, when the tourists came to Malacca and the hotel owners and food sellers enjoy most from that situation.
09:27But from different angles or different perspective for the other people, you see, that's the tourists can bring the traffic
09:38jam and parking problems and that's a point of view.
09:46Maybe different people and different segments see this very difficult and different point of view.
09:56So, what are their expectations from the next government?
10:00I think people in Malacca or voters in Malacca still believe, when we draw the result from state election and
10:13GE,
10:13maybe, maybe, maybe, for me, maybe, the people from the state election decide who the best to handle Malacca issue.
10:26How the best party can deliver and solve the problem of people, of the people.
10:32And, but, but, for the federal level, maybe, the people or the voters think a different, different way.
10:39So, for me, in state election, this state election still, the trend from the Johor, Indonesia 9,
10:51and continue to believe that Gelombang Biru or Penyatuan Umar still, still there for, especially for the majority of Malay
11:04voters.
11:05So, for me, still have a different, but the same trend will continue to Malacca.
11:14Coming to Gelombang Biru, the blue wave.
11:18So, in 2021, the circumstance where elections were called was different.
11:24Four adorns withdrew support for the then Chief Minister, then the don was dissolved, and they called for elections.
11:31And Barisan went on to win quite big landslide majority.
11:35So, now, this time, how strong will the Gelombang Biru be in Melaka?
11:43For me, not a Gelombang Biru per se, but I call Penyatuan Umar is very right to describe the situation
11:55right now.
11:56Because, for me, the emotion of Malay voters towards Penyatuan Umar is very strong right now.
12:08If Barisan Nasional and PAS can cooperate with each other,
12:14and they draw the very clear about their seats, negotiation,
12:21not competing each other.
12:24And the Malay voters not divided.
12:28So, we can see, maybe UMNO have NBN, we can see the clear winner there.
12:40And for PAS, because you can see how the difference from state election and GE result,
12:50you can see the Perikatan Nasional scored three parliamentary seats,
12:56and three for Pakatan Harapan, and zero for Barisan Nasional, last election, you know.
13:02And this result shows that Perikatan Nasional has the strength in Melaka.
13:12Based on, for me, the youth or the young voters vote more to Perikatan Nasional compared to Barisan Nasional.
13:21So, in this state election, you can see if cooperation with Barisan Nasional and PAS not competing with each other,
13:36and they transfer their vote within their supporters,
13:41and you can see Barisan Nasional can pass the super majority.
13:45Super majority, yes.
13:48So, you expect Barisan to be the next government in Melaka?
13:53Yeah, for sure.
13:54For sure?
13:55For sure.
13:55If Barisan Nasional and PAS can draw their cooperation in this state election.
14:05Will it be bigger than 2021?
14:07Maybe.
14:08Maybe.
14:09That's a possibility.
14:10That's a possibility, yeah.
14:11Okay.
14:12So, Cik Isom, so, you think that it's now that you said that Barisan and Perikatan, I mean PAS,
14:21would may work together.
14:23So, what are the chances that we will see a unity government?
14:27Is this going to continue from here on?
14:30For me, unity government with, Barisan Nasional with Pakatan Harapan,
14:37for me, it's quite low.
14:39It's quite low.
14:43The unity government can happen if BN cannot secure simple majority numbers.
14:55Below 15, I don't see Pakatan Harapan can challenge that numbers.
15:02But, for me, that situation, maybe the cooperation within BN and open to Pakatan Harapan to negotiate.
15:13But, in this situation, I don't believe Pakatan Harapan can deliver to deny simple majority from the Barisan Nasional.
15:25How about a unity government between Barisan and PAS?
15:30Is that possible?
15:32I don't think so.
15:34I don't think so, so.
15:35Because the relationship between this party, yeah, no, no talking about,
15:45we talking about the cooperation within Pakatan Harapan and PAS, it's very difficult.
15:51So, Barisan and PAS.
15:53Barisan and PAS, for me, it's clear.
15:56For me, it's very clear to form the government.
15:59Because you can see, what we see, the strength from PAS itself,
16:06they have a young voter fish with Pekata National,
16:11a trend from the GE.
16:13And then, if this transfer and maintain with the Pekata National,
16:18so, the combination, bank vote or deposit from the Pekata National and Barisan National,
16:25they easily can form the government.
16:28So, a unity government between Barisan and PAS is possible.
16:31Yeah, it's possible.
16:33Why are young voters attracted to PAS?
16:37What are they doing, right?
16:38Based on previous GE, the sentiment is why the shifting support from the young voters
16:51is very clear towards Pekata National.
16:54Because UMNO and Barisan National at that time, they are divided.
17:00They are quarrel or internal problem within UMNO, UMNO leadership.
17:08So, that's problem, bring for the young voters, they see UMNO is no more.
17:15They want to put their hope for BN anymore.
17:21So, they shift their hope for Pekata National.
17:27So, and then, the campaign from TikTok, especially in GE,
17:33is very strong from Pekata National side.
17:36So, that's attract more young voters to give their vote towards Pekata National
17:45compared to BN or Pakatan Harapan.
17:49So, you expect this to continue with now that Mersatu is also having problems with PN and PAS.
17:59But you expect PAS to continue getting these votes from the younger voters?
18:06For me, right now, the playing field is quite open because the TikTok not, for me, not control
18:17or position of media, social media not solely belong to Pekata National anymore
18:28because the contestation field is quite open right now.
18:33In Malaika itself, it's a very small state.
18:37The population size around 700,000 voters only.
18:44So, we see that it's very small and the distinction between urban and suburban or rural areas is very thin.
18:57It's very thin, you know.
18:59And the message can cross across this city and village.
19:07It's very, very easy and very quick, especially in the campaign period.
19:13So, the transfer information from the rural area or in the city, urban area is very fast, you know.
19:25So, you can see how people react to the information and the sentiment is growing very fast in state election
19:36campaign.
19:37It's very interesting to monitor in this state election.
19:44Okay.
19:46Bersama Wawasan Muda, how does these three come in when it comes to the Melaka elections?
19:55What can they do?
19:57We put aside Wawasan because Wawasan, you know, he got help from the PAS factor.
20:08It's component, part of Pekata National component.
20:12But for Bersama and Muda, for me, quite interesting to see how this new party or small party like Bersama
20:24and Muda to position themselves towards this state election.
20:28For me, Bersama starting very early in this state election, they appoint maybe the new, the candidate before other parties.
20:46But for me, Bersama is a struggle to have what we call to attract the segment because the segment Bersama
21:01is sharing with Pakatan Harapan, the same segment.
21:06But for Muda also, they are competing in this segment, the rational voters, urban and suburban voters.
21:17So, difficult for Bersama and Muda to compete with Pakatan Harapan and maybe can divide the vote from the Pakatan
21:29Harapan bank vote.
21:30Bersama announced its candidates on the day of the PKR Congress in Melaka.
21:38Do you see this as a symbolic move from Bersama that they announced it in Melaka during the same time?
21:49Yeah, well, for voters, when we interview based on Johor, Bersama, Contest in Johor, but not in the Disneyland.
22:01Based on our experience, interview the respondent in Johor, the respondent described Bersama is just a fraction from the Pakat
22:14PKR.
22:15You know, they are members mostly from the PKR members, especially for Rafizi supporters in PKR.
22:25So, the question when we interview the respondent, there is the, how, if we vote for Bersama,
22:38which party Bersama will align for, to form government, stand alone, we just, yeah, not important for us, if Bersama
22:49stand alone.
22:50If Bersama join with Pakatan Harapan, so, why you, yeah, why you split from Pakatan Harapan?
22:59That's, for me, that's a question matter for, for the voters.
23:06Is there any chance for Bersama and Pakatan Harapan to work together? Any chance at all?
23:13I don't think so.
23:14I don't think so.
23:16The personal matters.
23:18Yeah.
23:19Between Rafizi and Datuk Seri Anwar.
23:21Yeah.
23:23So, if at all they need to work with someone who would they choose barisan or passlet perikatan?
23:31Bersama.
23:31Bersama.
23:32I think they stand alone.
23:34Stand alone.
23:34Yeah, stand alone.
23:35They won't be part of the government.
23:36Yeah, part of any party.
23:39So, that's, yeah, that's the problem for, to, to, to convene the majority of voters.
23:48Bersama stand, stand alone.
23:51So, do you think they can win at least one seat Bersama?
23:58Based on their strategy and campaign, how creative they are to persuade and to convince the segment,
24:09which segment Bersama want to get the voters.
24:17So, for me, I believe if the party is Bersama can compose the right strategy, the right narrative.
24:27Because, for me, this is open card, you know.
24:30So, if you can attract and your campaign is very attractive, very creative, and the people can choose you as
24:40an alternative.
24:43For me, Bersama has an opportunity here.
24:45Opportunity here.
24:46It's not a close session for Bersama.
24:51So, there is still a chance, but depends on how they, how creative they can get with their campaigning and
24:57how they can attract votes.
24:59They still can win.
25:00They won't be there just to divide Pakatan's votes.
25:05Yeah, based on my experience, observe Thailand general election, the people party, you know,
25:11the people party for, maybe for the Thailand democracy process, the people party or before this, for future forward parties.
25:24It's very small party.
25:28The yellow party, you know, the yellow party, the people party.
25:32But the campaign is very creative.
25:34They are candidates very young, below 40 years old, the candidates, and the candidates very visible and very, you know,
25:48very energetic from voters' point of view.
25:51So, their messaging is very clear, their manifesto.
25:56So, for me, the campaign focus on social media, very aggressive.
26:01So, for Bersama, if Bersama can get into this factor, so for me, Bersama can get the segment, which segment
26:16attract to their campaign.
26:19So, in Melaka, you believe social media will still be one of the biggest factors to attract votes from social
26:29media?
26:29Yeah, sure. Based on our data, social media now around 56%, how the voters decide to vote based on social
26:45media.
26:46Very, very huge numbers.
26:48This is for any elections.
26:49Yeah, maybe 56% to 60%.
26:54Yeah, people decide based on social media.
26:58So, maybe the others' media or others' factors below than that.
27:10Melaka will be the last state elections in Semenanjung, before we head straight to GE16.
27:17Of course, we have Sarawak, which is due very soon also.
27:20But then, the political ballgame is different there.
27:24Even the parties are different there, compared to what we have here and in federal politics,
27:30in the peninsula and federal politics.
27:33So, how will Melaka decide what...
27:39How will Melaka influence what we will see in GE16 later?
27:45I would like a slightly different point of view, because Melaka maybe...
27:53It's a state election.
27:55The time matters.
27:57The timing of where...
28:00When general election can be held by the government.
28:07So, if GE come not so long from this state election, Melaka or Sarawak...
28:19So, the pattern or the trend is still there.
28:23So, maybe for me, BN has had an advantage in this situation.
28:32When GE...
28:33So, have very soon from this state election.
28:38Melaka state election and Sarawak state election.
28:41But, if Pakatan Arapano, Datuk Sri Ano Ibrahim drag...
28:48Maybe after five or six months from this state election, the situation, this environment,
28:58the political situation is very different.
29:01The change of this factor or this variable can...
29:05So, for me, maybe not the same with the result from Johor state election, Negeri Sembilan state election and Melaka
29:14state election.
29:15It's very different.
29:15So, if it is held sooner, then Barisan...
29:20Has an advantage.
29:21Barisan has an advantage.
29:23But, if Anwar decides to dissolve parliament later...
29:27Later, yeah.
29:28Then it's...
29:29Yeah, open for all.
29:31Open for all.
29:31Yeah, still.
29:32Okay.
29:33So, do you think PM will dissolve parliament soon?
29:38Or he will want to wait until the end of the term, which is December next year?
29:45I think Prime Minister will drag at the end of this term.
29:53End of this term?
29:54Yeah.
29:55So, end of next year?
29:56Yeah.
29:57Not soon.
29:58Not soon.
29:59Yeah.
29:59Because if election soon, disadvantage for him and they are component party.
30:10So, yeah.
30:12Because this seragam, we observe the situation.
30:17If you can see it, the Penyatuan Umar, the wave, the blue wave and the Penyatuan Umar wave, still there.
30:25If general election around the corner from the state election.
30:31But, after maybe six or and above from the state election, so the changes from the situation, political situation, maybe
30:46can bring more opportunity for Pakatan Harapan to mapping their own strategy.
30:55To, how to manage the blue wave or the Penyatuan Umar wave.
31:02They have a time.
31:04Pakatan.
31:05So, what are the chances for Pakatan Harapan to even win and form a government in any of these elections?
31:16Maybe it Melaka or G16 as the federal government.
31:20So, the best scenario for Pakatan Harapan is to secure around 80 to 85 parliamentary seats for Pakatan Harapan.
31:32That's the best for Pakatan Harapan.
31:34To maintain their support around 82 to 85 parliamentary seats.
31:41And then, they can cooperate with Sarawak and parliamentary from Borneo, Sabah and Sarawak to form the government.
31:52We can see, maybe, the next GE, the composition is very challenged composition to have one party or one component
32:07party can form a government itself.
32:10Because, in Peninsula, we have 165 seats.
32:16That numbers is very important.
32:20Because, the crucial numbers is very competing within Pakatan Harapan, Perikatan Nasional and Parista Nasional.
32:29Competing in 165 seats in Peninsula.
32:34So, it's very difficult to get 112 from this number in Peninsula.
32:42So, if party have around 80 or 290 seat, parliamentary seat in Peninsula, so you can negotiate with Borneo, Sabah
32:53and Sarawak.
32:54So, Sarawak, maybe you can get 30 seats and you can form the federal government.
33:00So, Unity Governments will be the way to go from here on.
33:04We won't see one government anymore.
33:07Yeah, sure.
33:08Okay.
33:09Alright.
33:11Thanks for all the insightful information, Ije Isof.
33:17It was a pleasure having you here.
33:19Thank you again.
33:20And, stay tuned for more podcasts on Pole Position.
33:24We'll be bringing you more in the days to come.
33:28We'll be unpacking more issues related to the Melaka State Elections.
33:32Until then, take care.
33:35Bye-bye.
33:36Bye-bye.
33:37Bye-bye.
33:38Bye-bye.
33:38Bye-bye.
33:39Bye-bye.
33:41Bye-bye.
33:42Bye-bye.
33:42Bye-bye.
33:42Bye-bye.
33:42Bye-bye.
33:48Bye-bye.