00:00Let's talk next to Samuel Romani, Associate Fellow at the London-based RUCI Think Tank and CEO of Pangaea Geopolitical
00:08Risk.
00:08Samuel, welcome back. Did anyone get the ceasefire memo, or is that not how all of this works?
00:16Well, it doesn't seem as if the Ukrainians or the Russians are that familiar with the ceasefire memo at this
00:21time.
00:21It does seem as if, at least from my sources in Kiev, that the Trump administration is just trying to
00:29frame the unilateral concession on Russian diesel into some kind of a win for the peace process.
00:34So it's kind of something that does not seem to be really underway.
00:38Ukraine seems firmly committed to, A, making sure that there is pressure alleviated on their grids during the wintertime,
00:45but also to push for a much more long-term ceasefire because they do see their attacks on Russian refineries
00:51as a major point of leverage
00:53and a major drain of capital to the Russian war machine.
00:56Has the United States struck a diesel deal with Russia without getting anything in return?
01:05Well, it doesn't seem as if the Russians are going to make any long-term changes in their strategy.
01:11I mean, they still seem to be more likely to be mobilizing war forces,
01:15and they seem to be more likely to be escalating their hybrid threats against NATO countries
01:20if some of the reports that were coming through from the Financial Times and other outlets about assassination attempts against
01:25defense stakeholders
01:26and other forms of sabotage have any validity.
01:29So I don't think that there has been a fundamental change in Russian conduct,
01:32but obviously every little bit of sanctions relief or sanctions waivers certainly helps.
01:38And the Russians have been looking for waivers in various points of time since the straight-over-moose crisis began,
01:43and this is the latest one.
01:45Russia's striking deals with the United States without seemingly any European or Ukrainian involvement
01:52and without agreeing to any compromises on ending the war.
01:57What does all of this do to United States-Ukraine-European relations?
02:04Well, basically, it does seem as if the Americans see the Europeans and arguably even the Ukrainians sometimes
02:11as optional stakeholders in the ending of this war.
02:14Trump seems to believe that through direct dialogue with Putin or through U.S.-Russia dialogue,
02:19the war can be kind of brought to an end and agreement can kind of be forced upon the Ukrainians
02:24and the Europeans.
02:25And that does seem paradoxical and baffling to people in Brussels and in Kiev
02:30as Ukrainians are fighting against Russia on the front lines,
02:33and this is about the future of their country,
02:35and the Europeans now are buying the weapons from the United States.
02:38It's not U.S. financial aid packages that are going in the large way that they were under Biden.
02:42It's European purchases.
02:44So given the fact that Europe is buying the weapons and Ukraine is fighting on the ground,
02:48they feel that they should be at the very least, you know, the third pillar on the table
02:53or even more important on the table than what this U.S.-Russia dialogue is going.
02:58So there is a huge disconnect between the Trump administration's approach
03:01and what the Europeans and the Ukrainians see as rational negotiating practices,
03:05and that means it's very hard to enforce anything on the ground.
03:09Let's be optimistic.
03:10Might this moment be a genuine step towards ending the war?
03:17Well, I think that there have been many attempts to bring about ceasefires and pushes to end this war.
03:23I mean, there were the Istanbul attempts that began in 2022.
03:27Qatar was trying to broker a very similar kind of energy ceasefire
03:30to what Trump is claiming that he achieved before the Kursk incursion in 2024.
03:34There have been other attempts organized and facilitated by Middle Eastern countries
03:40as well as the Alaska summit.
03:41So lots of false dawns and very few points of optimism.
03:45And the reality is it does seem as if Ukraine does not want to concede more territory,
03:51at least the rest of Donbass unilaterally.
03:53Russia doesn't want to stop the war until it's at least gained control over Donbass.
03:57And as long as that impasse is happening on the front lines,
04:01then it looks like another year of attrition seems to be much more likely than an imminent conflict resolution.
04:07Samuel, good to see you. Thanks for that.
04:09Samuel Romani, the Associate Fellow at the London-based Russi Think Tank
04:13and CEO of Pangaea Geopolitical Risk.
