00:00Ohio State, Indiana, in Bloomington, at noon, a three-point number in favor of the Buckeyes.
00:10These three-and-a-halves are all gone right now.
00:15And I did tweet about this yesterday, just trying to, you know, let people know,
00:20hey, these are starting to vanish.
00:22I did play Indiana plus three-and-a-half.
00:26Yes, I think you can still play them at the three.
00:29I think Indiana will win this football game.
00:32But obviously, as Dave and I talk about every Saturday, you want to get the best of the numbers.
00:38And three-and-a-half was the best of the number in this football game.
00:43So why do I think Indiana are going to win?
00:46Well, I flatly don't agree with the perception that Ohio State have been that much better than Indiana this season.
00:56And Ohio State has played a slightly tougher schedule.
00:59That is true.
01:01Ohio State right now is the best yards-per-pass attempt offense in the country.
01:06Indiana all the way back at second.
01:10Second.
01:11So right there.
01:13Indiana is the fifth-best yards-per-carry offense, though, in college football.
01:18So a little bit more balanced attack.
01:20Ohio State has been excellent defending the pass.
01:22Indiana has been excellent defending the run.
01:26This is a game where you say, okay, Julian Sands is going to have to go get it.
01:30A.K.A. Jeremiah Smith is going to have to go get it.
01:34And Jeremiah Smith going and getting it, he can do it a win.
01:39He can do it a loss.
01:40A.K.A.
01:41I don't know, the Big Ten title game last year, 8-for-1-44.
01:45They lost.
01:46How about the Texas game?
01:478-for-1-64.
01:48And a score.
01:49They lost.
01:51Listen, the Heisman Trophy is about individual excellence, maybe more than MVP.
01:57There's a reason why MVPs are usually quarterback awards, because that is what is most valuable.
02:02You can still win a game while Jeremiah Smith goes absolutely nuts.
02:07And I think that these are closer to even football teams.
02:13And I'm getting Indiana and a field goal at home.
02:20That is too heavy, in my opinion, here.
02:23I'm happy to play the Hoosiers, Dave.
02:25Again, played three and a hook.
02:27You played a three.
02:28I think that's fine.
02:29I think Indiana will win this football game.
02:32Yeah, and if you match up team-for-team talent-wise,
02:34you're going to lean on an Ohio State side, because they've got two Heisman Trophy candidates,
02:38as well as probably the better roster top to bottom.
02:42We think they're the best roster in the country.
02:44But three to three and a half at home, with a team that has not lost since the calendar said
02:492024 on it?
02:51Like, that means something.
02:53And I think if you're going to get those points at home, that doesn't bother me.
02:58It's hard for me to pick against Ohio State, even though I did it with Texas.
03:01And you've got to keep in mind, Ohio State lost to Texas.
03:04That doesn't hurt them in the Big Ten.
03:05They win this game.
03:06They're the frontrunners to go to the Big Ten title game and, of course, get a bye in the playoff.
03:10That's still 12 teams for now.
03:12What I like about this game is the two defenses.
03:15And I know the offenses can score.
03:17They're two of the most explosive offenses in the country.
03:19But in my mind, their defenses are better than their offenses.
03:23This game was 13-10 last year.
03:2713-10.
03:28And whereas you're not going to post a total at 23, that's less than a half of the 50.5
03:34that's up there right now.
03:35Indiana allows under 12 points per game, best in the conference.
03:39And to borrow your line, Ohio State is all the way back at second and 13.2 points per game.
03:47Combine them, you're at 25 points per game, still half of this 50.5 total.
03:52Ohio State, fifth nationally in total defense, eighth in pass defense.
03:56The Hoosiers allow just 75 rushing yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry.
04:02You look at recent performance, Indiana scored 20 points and had 328 total yards against Nebraska last week, winning 20
04:09-17.
04:10These teams are capable of winning low-scoring games as well as shootouts.
04:15And you ask about the offenses, yes.
04:17They're high-scoring, but they also, Kevin, operate at a very deliberate pace, approximately 28 and 29.5 seconds per
04:26play for these two teams.
04:28Slow teams go towards unders.
04:31And I think this is going to be a very close game that could very well end up with an
04:35Indiana win or cover the 3.5.
04:37But I'm looking at under 50.5 as my play today.
