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Economists are warning Victoria’s state budget would get worse under the coalition's plans because it fails to cut spending while reducing taxes. State opposition leader Jess Wilson has made budget repair central to her pitch but economists say the coalition's fiscal plans could make an already bad budget position worse, with a potential multi-billion-dollar hole.

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00:01The current government has made a dreadful mess of Victoria's finances.
00:06And that's part of the reason Labor is staring down its first election loss in 16 years.
00:10State debt is forecast to rise from $160 billion this year to nearly $200 billion in four years' time.
00:17The government has been forced to tighten its belt, but the public sector wage bill continues to rise.
00:21We will repair the budget and restore accountability.
00:25That plan includes a return to a cash surplus by 2032.
00:28Jess Wilson is promising to cut taxes by $7.5 billion over four years.
00:33Strap the tax! Strap the tax!
00:37Including replacing the unpopular emergency services volunteer levy,
00:40reduce payroll tax, slash stamp duty and exempt private schools from payroll tax.
00:45Sold!
00:46It's all contradictory.
00:48She's led with something like $7 billion of tax cuts over four years,
00:52while promising in five years' time to return the budget to a cash surplus.
00:55They've got to close a $9 billion gap to achieve their promise.
01:00Professor David Hayward has crunched the Coalition's pledges,
01:02and says the opposition have not spelled out how it will cut costs and boost revenue.
01:07The Coalition's biggest saving is a $22 billion hiring freeze in the public service.
01:11It relies on attrition over 10 years.
01:14The Coalition says it will fix the budget by stopping waste.
01:17It's all pie in the sky stuff.
01:19So when you look at the actual figures, the figures are actually quite worrying.
01:23Only my team has a credible economic plan.
01:26A 10-year vision for this state.
01:28Policies that are costed.
01:29More Coalition's savings measures are expected to be announced as the election inches ever closer.
01:34But some Liberals are concerned the current fiscal plan is flimsy, leaving it open to political attacks.
01:40Jess Wilson has also cast doubt on whether Treasury figures are reliable.
01:44I think it's simply wrong to suggest that the books have been cooked.
01:49The books look pretty bad, but I don't think they've lied about it.
01:53He's urging Jess Wilson to spell out a proper plan, or face difficult decisions should a Coalition win.
01:58There has to be some combination of spending cuts and tax increases.
02:03There isn't a lot of scope for tax increases in Victoria,
02:06because it's already by a wide margin the highest taxing state.
02:11There's considerable scope for cutting spending in various areas of the budget,
02:17without Victorians having to suffer worse than average levels of public services.
02:23Right now, that plan doesn't exist.
02:25And that plan doesn't exist.
02:27And that plan doesn't exist.
02:28I'm not sure, but I'm not sure.
02:28I'm not sure.
02:28To the future, I'm not sure.
02:28I want to find out what you've been here.

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