- 6小时前
八点最热报 | 马六甲州选，希盟正式公布21名候选人，却留下7个选区没有上阵！这7席，究竟是留给谁？尽管希盟与土团党还没有正式宣布合作，但这套21加7的布局，已经被视为是双方可能进行选举配合的政治伏笔。问题是，昔日让希盟失去联邦政权的土团党，如今真能成为希盟的救命稻草吗？（主播：萧慧敏）
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00:00A reminder before watching the video
00:01There's more content on trending websites.
00:04Malacca selected
00:05The military unification and the one-party system have officially announced their joint siege of the city.
00:07When Simon announced his lineup...
00:10Only 21 candidates were announced.
00:13The remaining seven seats remained unchanged.
00:15So who will get those seven seats?
00:18Different people have different answers
00:19But anyone with eyes can see that
00:21This could very well be what was left for the Sheraton Move.
00:24Bersatu, the party that caused Simon to lose federal power
00:28Although neither side has announced specific arrangements
00:30However, from the perspective of political enemies of the West Japan
00:32Today, we may join hands to fight the enemy.
00:35Simon's political turn
00:37Ultimately, it was to put aside past grievances in order to win the election.
00:39Or facing a joint attack by witch doctors
00:41They've been forced to borrow troops from the enemy to survive.
00:45But the more brutal question is
00:47Bersatu, which is struggling to protect itself
00:48How many Malay notes do they still have to borrow?
00:51Can Simon be saved?
00:52If the witch doctor successfully consolidates the Malay vote
00:55Simon, however, was unable to penetrate the Malay voter base.
00:57Will the Justice Party ultimately prevail?
00:59Honesty Party members both hung up
01:01Only the DAP remains, guarding a few Chinese strongholds.
01:04How could he single-handedly hold up the entire Simon?
01:06Undoubtedly a joint project
01:08Simon seeks survival by borrowing troops
01:09Is Simon looking for a chance to turn the tide in this match?
01:12Even the last line of defense is about to crumble.
01:15Unable to react
01:17The Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition approached PAS in hopes of regrouping the previously fragmented Malay votes
01:21Take it back
01:22Simon considers Bersatu
01:23The hope is to penetrate the increasingly difficult Malay voter base.
01:27chisel a new gap
01:29But can this gap really be made?
01:32The most dangerous change in this election
01:34It doesn't matter how many seats UMNO and PAS can win.
01:38And after the cooperation between the two parties
01:39This could potentially change the entire electoral structure of Malacca.
01:43That past triangular battle
01:44UMNO, PAS, and Simon split votes.
01:46Even if PKR and Amanah don't get a majority of Malay votes
01:49There is still a chance to rely on non-Malay votes
01:52Plus some middle Malaysian tickets
01:54Breaking through in mixed constituencies
01:56But now
01:57UMNO and PAS attempt to join forces
01:59To consolidate the previously scattered Malay votes
02:02As long as vote consolidation achieves certain results
02:05In marginal constituencies where a few hundred votes could have decided the outcome
02:09They might quickly side with the witch doctor.
02:12Analysis by Xisomudin, Executive Director of Inspiration Center
02:15Although the cooperation between UMNO and PAS cannot guarantee supporters
02:17Able to transfer 100% of the votes
02:20But as long as the grassroots organizations can coordinate
02:22That would be enough to exacerbate Simon's situation.
02:24The competition is more difficult in Malay constituencies and mixed constituencies.
02:28And the knife is most likely to strike...
02:31It's the Justice Party and the Amanah Party.
02:33Because the DAP still has at least a relatively stable base.
02:36Chinese American base
02:37But the PKR and Amanah
02:38It is necessary to win the support of cross-ethnic groups.
02:41Only then can it be within the Malay population
02:42Winning in a significant proportion of constituencies
02:45Moreover, the previous Malacca weekly election
02:48The People's Justice Party has been completely defeated.
02:49Amanah only relies on Adly
02:52They held the fifth-level enemy's most important position.
02:54If the witch doctor successfully consolidates the Malay vote this time...
02:57Will the People's Justice Party fail to win two consecutive terms?
03:00The Amanah party couldn't even hold onto its last seat.
03:05Malacca Weekly Selection
03:06Simon officially announced 21 candidates
03:08However, he did not contest in seven constituencies.
03:11Who will these seven seats be reserved for?
03:13Although Simon and Bersatu have not yet officially announced a cooperation.
03:16But this 21+7 layout
03:19This has already been seen as a political foreshadowing of possible electoral cooperation between the two sides.
03:23The problem is
03:24The Bersatu party, which once caused Simon to lose federal power.
03:26Can it truly become Simon's lifeline now?
03:29From political enemies of the 2020 Sheraton Move
03:32Today, we may be able to cooperate again.
03:34Will Simon's supporters swallow this insult?
03:37I think if you want to participate in the government
03:46If they can win the vote
03:48We might be able to win the vote.
03:50Every political system can
03:53Politics is not like a hole now.
03:59If Simon really seeks cooperation with Bersatu
04:01His plan is actually not hard to understand.
04:04UMNO and PAS join forces to consolidate Malay votes
04:06Simon, however, lacked a sufficiently strong grassroots mobilization force in Malays.
04:10Therefore, they hope to fill the gap with the help of Bersatu.
04:13But how many Malay votes does Bersatu itself still have to bring over?
04:17Political scientists Pan Yongqiang and Azmi Hassan both believe
04:19If Bersatu leaves Perikatan Nasional and PAS
04:22The number of Malay votes that one can actually control is actually limited.
04:25Simon's political gamble
04:27It may not be able to bring the expected return in votes.
04:30Therefore, Simon is also cooperating with Bersatu.
04:34It's obvious he'll leave some seats empty.
04:38Let Bersatu (Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) run for office
04:40Simon hopes to strengthen his Malay support through Bersatu.
04:46However, this possibility is not high.
04:49Because Bersatu itself, when he left the country or left PAS...
04:55After cooperation
04:56Bersatu itself doesn't actually control many Malay votes.
05:01His party organization itself wasn't very strong.
05:30What truly put Simon in danger was
05:32It's probably not about how many votes Bersatu can bring in.
05:35Rather, it was after UMNO cooperated with PAS
05:37Changing the entire rules of the election game
05:40Past triangular warfare
05:41Malay votes were split between UMNO and PAS.
05:44Simon still has a chance to rely on non-Malay votes and some middle-ground Malay votes.
05:48Breakthrough in mixed constituencies
05:49Now Witch One is trying to join forces
05:51This effectively shut down the election loopholes through which Simon had previously relied for survival.
05:55Especially since the People's Justice Party and the National Trust Party were neighbors in the last state election.
05:59Only one seat left
06:00Now facing further integration of Malay votes
06:02Will we even lose our last foothold?
06:05So if we use the election results as a baseline for prediction
06:10Today, in the 28 state constituencies of Malacca
06:13Four of them are within the PAP's grasp.
06:16Even if Malay votes merge
06:18They can still stand up
06:19The other constituency is where former Chief Minister Adly Zahari...
06:24The inevitable success of Bugogchus
06:26In the wave of Malay unity
06:29He will be like the deep beauty of Lanzhou.
06:33Former Chief Minister Aminuddin has four preferred districts.
06:37The other 24 state constituencies
06:39As long as the call for unity between UMNO and PAS is effective
06:43Then he would get a two-finger rating.
06:46For the Chinese community
06:47The most dangerous thing about the Malacca state election
06:49It's probably not just about whether the DAP will lose its seats.
06:52Instead, some Chinese-American voters lost enthusiasm for Simon.
06:55They are unwilling to support UMNO and PAS.
06:57In the end, they simply chose to give up.
06:59It was thought that not voting was a punishment for Simon.
07:02The result, however, may further amplify the witch doctor's winning advantage.
07:05Last state election
07:06The Barisan Nasional coalition only garnered 38.4% of the vote.
07:09Simon 35.8%
07:11Perikatan Nasional 24.3%
07:13If the witch doctor successfully consolidates the votes now
07:16In addition, a large number of Simon supporters dropped out of the vote.
07:18The percentage of votes for the Witch Doctor faction may be further increased.
07:21Huang Jingfa, a political scientist at Shuangwei University, warned
07:24Elections are not just about who wins how many seats.
07:27More importantly, how much popular mandate did the winner actually receive?
07:31If they concentrate their votes this time...
07:33We expect it to be close to 60%.
07:37That 60% wouldn't be surprising.
07:40But if you don't come out to vote
07:43The Witch Doctor Alliance became 70%.
07:45After 75% of the election results are released, the state government will have to make a decision.
07:51I want to tighten the restrictions on the freedom of our intellectual culture.
07:55Do you have any reason to object?
07:57There is no reason to object
07:58Because this is a government with the support of 75% of voters.
08:03What do you oppose?
08:05So, are you going to come out and vote?
08:07It's not just a question of who runs the government.
08:10But after becoming a government official
08:12Do you remember that you still exist?
08:14You don't come out to vote
08:15It means making political parties and politicians forget about you.
08:1928 seats in Malacca
08:21Barisan Nasional and one-party joint project
08:22Simon, however, hoped to break through the siege by borrowing troops from Bersatu.
08:25But if Bersatu fails to bring in Malay votes
08:28The People's Justice Party and the National Trust Party failed to retain their mixed constituencies again.
08:31In the end, the DAP will be left fighting alone.
08:34Malacca may only lose a few seats in this battle.
08:37But if even the trust of Malay voters and Chinese voters is lost...
08:40They all disappeared together
08:41Simon's next national election
08:43Will there be no way out at all?
08:49The most terrifying thing about no one joining forces is not winning a few more seats.
08:52Instead, it expanded Simon's already cramped living space.
08:55That further compressed the situation to the point where there was almost no way out.
08:58Once the Malay votes are successfully consolidated
09:00It seems likely that the 28 seats in Malacca will indeed be decided.
09:03A miraculous 24-on-4 battle
09:05PKR wins the ballot for two consecutive terms
09:07Amanah couldn't even hold onto its last seat.
09:09The two major allied parties were completely wiped out.
09:12That leaves only the DAP with four seats, which dominates the overall situation.
09:15But the problem is
09:16A political alliance that claims to be cross-ethnic
09:18If only the Rockets remain and win one of the remaining spots...
09:21What else can Simon use to prove that he has cross-ethnic support?
09:24After none of them joined forces
09:26The more concentrated the Malaysian vote
09:27Simon's political sphere shrinks more and more
09:30Is the 24-to-4 result just a prediction for an election in Malacca?
09:33Simon gradually retreated from the inter-ethnic alliance.
09:37Is this a political warning sign that the DAP is becoming isolated?
09:41good
09:42yes
09:45Subtitle volunteer Yang Qianqian