00:00Well, Steve, thank you for joining us.
00:02We were promised a budget that was going to make life easier for everyday people.
00:07Is that what we've got?
00:10Well, the big problem that we've got coming, and indeed, I suppose we're sort of into it already,
00:15but of course, is the sort of the impending jet energy crisis.
00:18We're told that energy costs are going to go up by something like 25% in January.
00:23And who knows?
00:24Of course, it's done every sort of quarter, so it may even sort of continue to go up.
00:27So the fact that there's £100 coming back to all houses in A to D,
00:33something like 20 million houses across the UK, is a good thing.
00:37But dare I say, of course, it's not going to be a sort of a tremendous amount of money,
00:41given that people may be spending so many more hundreds of pounds each year,
00:45and maybe more than that, depending upon their energy uses,
00:47because, of course, they talk about average usage.
00:50But, of course, the more you use, the more you pay for.
00:52I add that also to the fact that the standing charge is going to disappear on gas bills,
00:59although that won't be immediate.
01:01I think that's going to take probably the best part of a year to sort of come in.
01:05So, yeah, there is some sort of assistance,
01:07but I think the headline still is that it's going to be difficult for people out there.
01:13I mean, we didn't get anything on taxation.
01:17So, I mean, if you remember, of course,
01:20at least the sort of the tax thresholds, they are frozen and continually.
01:24So there was some sort of rumour, or there were rumours, rather,
01:28that that was going to be sort of changed.
01:30But, you know, that's not happened.
01:32So we'll continue to pay more tax.
01:34Now, that's what's called the fiscal drag.
01:36And, of course, that's become sort of pretty acute.
01:39But, of course, the sort of chancellor is going to sort of do something about this
01:41with pensioners or state pensioners,
01:44whose pension will actually sort of take them above the sort of the tax threshold.
01:48So they'll have to start sort of paying tax,
01:50or at least if they would have to pay.
01:52But, of course, the chancellor is going to sort of do something about that.
01:56So it's kind of complex.
01:58But, of course, I think the sort of the overall sort of sense
02:01is that it's going to be sort of difficult.
02:03Times are going to be really challenging.
02:05There's a whole lot of stuff about sort of jobs and investment
02:08and sort of business rate support, all of which is really good.
02:12But I suspect for sort of many businesses,
02:14and I speak on the sort of the day that we still have sort of uncertainty
02:18about sort of Poundland, you know, that's sort of a well-known brand
02:21going into business, or potentially going into business
02:24with the loss of many thousands of workers.
02:26So the whole backdrop is going to continue to be, to use that expression,
02:30once again, very challenging.
02:31And I think the sort of the chancellor has done as much as he could
02:34to sort of to alleviate that.
02:36But obviously, of course, he's caught in a bind
02:38because, of course, he can't whack taxes up anymore
02:41because people sort of feel they're sort of they're overtaxed already.
02:44And indeed, our taxes are now the highest they've been
02:46since the Second World War.
02:48So nowhere to go on that one.
02:50And, of course, it's difficult.
02:52He's done a very good job of saying an awful lot,
02:55but sort of not actually sort of saying anything in particular,
02:58I might sort of say.
02:59Well, growth is just forecast to be 1% next year.
03:03Do you think within that, the chancellor has enough
03:06to get the economy moving?
03:07Is there any moves there that you've seen?
03:09Well, I mean, quite clearly, there are sort of incentives
03:12to sort of a business.
03:13But, I mean, and every sort of incentive you sort of put
03:16is always going to be good.
03:18Whether it sort of gets sort of growth moving
03:20sort of more dramatically is highly questionable.
03:23At 1%, you know, it's okay.
03:25But, of course, it could be a lot more.
03:27I mean, we've sort of seen some recent years in the likes
03:29of China, for instance, which I know is probably
03:30a very poor comparator for many reasons.
03:33But, of course, you know, when you're getting up to 10%
03:35sort of increasing growth in the sort of the gross
03:38domestic product, you know, that's huge amounts of money.
03:41But, of course, that's what you really need.
03:42You know, large amounts, which, of course,
03:45also produce more money into the exchequer,
03:47which will then go into sort of paying for all the sort
03:50of the things that we need to pay for.
03:51Defence was also mentioned today.
03:52That's obviously a big concern.
03:54And, indeed, defence and, of course, allied to sort of two,
03:57well, that's in particular to Ukraine.
03:59But, of course, the sort of the conflict in the sort
04:01of the Middle East, you know, we are sort of under assault,
04:04it appears to me, from sort of various sort of enemies
04:08we sort of gather.
04:10So, yeah, I think this is the real difficulty that sort
04:13of the Chancellor had is he'd obviously like to sort
04:16of provide more money.
04:17I know that sort of those on the right will sort of say the one
04:21thing he's not really sort of tackled, which is really difficult
04:23given the sort of the dynamics of the Labour Party,
04:26is the sort of the burgeoning sort of welfare bill.
04:29You know, that continues to go up.
04:30And, indeed, the sort of the view is that that will go up by many
04:32sort of billions more.
04:34But, of course, the only way you get that down is to sort of take
04:36people out of welfare and back into employment.
04:39But, of course, that is a really sort of difficult one for people
04:42who are also long-term sort of illness.
04:43And also, let's face it, of course, the sort of the jobs are not
04:46sort of as plentiful as they sort of once were, certainly sort of
04:49going back to my youth.
04:52Because, of course, you know, and it comes back to this whole sort
04:54of difficult, this conundrum, you know, getting enough money
04:58into the economy or at least enough incentives or sufficient
05:01incentives to create the sort of those who want to sort of to invest
05:05in business and take the risks, which, of course, are inevitable.
05:09Steve, we're out of time.
05:10Thank you so much for your analysis today.
05:13You're welcome.
