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10:23And they could and should a compelling message for their policies and ideas.
10:29And what would be Trump's political agenda for his remaining two years in office following the midterms?
10:36Well, you know, Trump never really has had a legislative agenda.
10:40He governs, you know, as an aspiring authoritarian.
10:45He governs by executive order, essentially bypassing the legislature.
10:50He only had one big legislative victory, his tax and spending bill.
10:55So I expect he will govern once again by executive order, perhaps even more aggressively, if, in fact, the House
11:04and the Senate or either one of them turns Democratic.
11:07So when I talk to the pundits, the strategists, the observers,
11:12they tell me that Trump, over the last two years of his term, will be occupied by, you know, subpoenas
11:21and lawsuits, et cetera, and the Iran war.
11:24Do you share that?
11:26No question.
11:27Democrats will investigate, investigate, investigate the Iran war, the corruption, the grifting, the revenge tours.
11:34But none of that is going to stop Trump because he doesn't care.
11:40You can't shame Donald Trump.
11:43You can try impeaching him.
11:44That hasn't worked before in the Senate.
11:46He's been acquitted.
11:47It won't work again.
11:51U.S. historian Alan Lichtman from American University in Washington.
11:56Ukrainian President Zelensky says his country is still waiting for the Pentagon to sign off on defense patriot interceptors,
12:03while Russia continues to pound Kiev with ballistic missiles.
12:07Ukraine receives patriot systems from a special mechanism at NATO,
12:11where allies purchase U.S.-made weapons to transfer to Ukraine for the war.
12:15But lately, confusion reigns as to what exactly is happening.
12:19And more importantly, when will Ukraine receive the patriots?
12:23Let's make sense of all this with our NATO correspondent, Shona Murray, here on the set.
12:27Good morning, Shona.
12:29So I guess the basic question is, why is Ukraine so reliant on these patriots?
12:34Well, quite frankly, because the PAC-3 patriot system is the most advanced technology to intercept the Russian ballistic missiles
12:40that are raining down on Kiev.
12:42The Europeans don't have anything comparable.
12:43But these are very complex systems.
12:46They cost about $4 million for one of the missiles.
12:50They can cost a billion dollars just for the whole system itself.
12:55And the problem is there's a global shortage because the United States has burned through its stockpiles because of the
13:00war in Iran.
13:01And why is Washington delaying them?
13:03Well, that is the key question.
13:04Nobody knows exactly why this is happening.
13:06Some people believe that maybe it's about resuming the war in Iran.
13:09The United States needs its stockpiles.
13:10But others are saying that perhaps that the United States is trying to pressurize President Zelensky, as we know, into
13:17stopping attacking Russian diesel refineries ahead of the U.S. midterms, where we know the United States President Donald Trump
13:24is not doing so well in the polls.
13:25So I caught up with former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, who believes that this may be the
13:30case.
13:31President Trump is seeing what everyone is seeing, that it's going to go very, very badly for the Republicans.
13:37Certainly losing the House of Representatives, probably also losing the Senate at this stage is the way it looks, although
13:43you never know.
13:45And he wants to be seen to be doing something about the issues that are making voters unhappy.
13:53One of them is the price of diesel.
13:56And that particularly affects farmers, mid-state, red-state voters in the Midwest and the United States.
14:02So he wants to be seen to be doing something about that.
14:04So he thought it would be a great story for him to be able to say, I've got Vladimir Putin
14:09giving us diesel, and I've got Zelensky to stop attacking the refineries.
14:14So I'm fighting for you.
14:16I'm on your side.
14:17The problem with that is it is an insignificant amount of diesel.
14:22It won't do anything to U.S. or global prices.
14:28All right, Shona Mari, thanks for breaking it all down for us.
14:31And now to the energy crisis.
14:33The European Commission is treating the loss of refining capacity as a vulnerability that Europe can no longer afford to
14:40ignore.
14:41Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen warned that the prolonged war in the Middle East should serve as a wake-up call.
14:47The EU should ensure that there is an adequate refining capacity at home, he said.
14:53This morning came as the prices for crude oil and diesel rose across the board yesterday.
14:58Markets reacted to reports that the U.S. is preparing to renew strikes against Iran after the midterm elections.
15:05To discuss the latest developments, I'm now joined by Osama Rizvi, Global Markets and Product Strategist at Primary Vision in
15:13Lahore.
15:13Good morning to you.
15:15Good morning to you as well, Stefan.
15:17I'm in UAE at the moment right now.
15:19Wonderful.
15:20So, oil, diesel and gas prices are all up again.
15:24Are we witnessing another temporary market panic or the beginning of a much bigger energy crisis?
15:31Well, it has never been temporary since the start of the war, actually.
15:35Whatever you see right now is a long extension or rather something that has become a structural feature characteristic of
15:42the market.
15:43Whether the war restarts or not, whether there is an escalation or not, it is going to take some months
15:49for the supplies to restore
15:51and hence for the refiners to get what they want and hence for the prices to come down and consumers
15:56to feel okay.
15:57So, this is a structural baked-in factor, unfortunately, and we'll have to suffer from it from the next 7
16:02to 12 months minimum.
16:04Why are especially diesel prices rising so sharply?
16:07Is there something fundamentally wrong with the global market for refined fuels?
16:13Well, diesel, above all the fuels, is really central to the global economy.
16:19Up-country movement, down-country movement, agriculture, farmers, all of them, food transportation, they use diesel as a feedstock, right?
16:28So, diesel has low stocks already globally.
16:32Then, we discussed it last time as well, lots of refineries are closing down.
16:361.5 million barrels of refined products going down as well.
16:40In Europe, 10 to 15 percent of refinery capacity has been disrupted in the previous few years.
16:45So, all of that had culminated into what is called a diesel crisis.
16:50And many analysts are, I'm also on the verge of declaring this, this war is actually a diesel war.
16:55It's becoming a diesel war and that is going to choke the global economy if it gets worse.
17:02And Europe seems particularly exposed to the diesel crunch and the comments of Commissioner Juergens and its testament to that.
17:11Why is the continent still so vulnerable to disruptions in global fuel surprise?
17:19Well, interestingly, and, you know, Europe has had some issues with the policymaking, policy direction, actually, according to myself.
17:28The shift or move for renewables, at times we saw that triumphed the realities of the energy security.
17:36And hence, what we are seeing right now is that there is a crisis of refining.
17:40There is a crisis of diesel production plus diesel reserves.
17:44Moving forward, I think it will really benefit not only Europe, but also the world.
17:48And this is happening east of Suez, actually, that there needs to be a refining, you know, revolution in the
17:55world.
17:55More refineries spread across the world so that they don't become vulnerable to such geopolitical crisis.
18:03And, Osama, if tensions in the Middle East ease tomorrow, how quickly would oil and diesel prices actually fall?
18:11I don't think it is going to be very quickly.
18:14The crude oil prices, yes, they can fall.
18:16We have seen some restoration of both the flows through Hormuz and the production facilities in the Gulf.
18:22So that is one thing.
18:23However, that reaching to the refineries will still involve a lot of high transportation costs.
18:29$3 of transportation costs before the world.
18:33Now it costs around $20 to transport the same boat.
18:36So it is going to take three to five months for this to die down and the dust to settle
18:42down.
18:43So well into next year then?
18:45Definitely.
18:47All right.
18:48Osama Rizvi, as always, thank you for your analysis.
18:51And that's all for today.
18:53Thank you for watching.
18:54I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:16I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:16I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:17I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:17I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:18I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:19I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:19I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
19:20I'm Stefan Grobe and I see you tomorrow.
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