- 1 hour ago
After more than four years of war, Vladimir Putin is still acting as if time is on his side — but every one of his bets has an expiry date. Elvira Bary breaks down the calculations behind Russia’s refusal to compromise, from the battlefield to oil prices, missile pressure, Europe, and the United States.
This political analysis follows the Kremlin’s strategy of attrition: Russia trying to outlast Ukraine while managing rising costs at home, sanctions pressure, and growing strain on its economy and military. It also looks at how high oil prices, attacks on Ukrainian air defenses, Europe’s energy and security anxieties, and shifting U.S. support shape the war’s next phase.
For viewers interested in Russia-Ukraine war analysis, Putin strategy, geopolitical commentary, and current affairs explained clearly, this episode connects the battlefield to the wider contest over energy, defense, and Western support. It is useful for anyone searching for Ukraine war updates, Kremlin strategy, European security, and U.S. foreign policy in one long-form analysis.
This political analysis follows the Kremlin’s strategy of attrition: Russia trying to outlast Ukraine while managing rising costs at home, sanctions pressure, and growing strain on its economy and military. It also looks at how high oil prices, attacks on Ukrainian air defenses, Europe’s energy and security anxieties, and shifting U.S. support shape the war’s next phase.
For viewers interested in Russia-Ukraine war analysis, Putin strategy, geopolitical commentary, and current affairs explained clearly, this episode connects the battlefield to the wider contest over energy, defense, and Western support. It is useful for anyone searching for Ukraine war updates, Kremlin strategy, European security, and U.S. foreign policy in one long-form analysis.
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LearningTranscript
00:00After more than four years of war, Putin is still behaving as though time is on his side.
00:06Russia has lost an enormous number of men and equipment, its economy is slowing,
00:12the federal budget deficit is growing, Ukraine drones are reaching deep inside the country,
00:18and yet Putin is still not substantially reducing his demands.
00:23That tells us something important. He is waiting for something.
00:27In fact, when you look closely at Russia's strategy, you can see several enormous bets Putin is making at the
00:35same time.
00:36On the battlefield, on oil, on Europe, on the United States, and on how much punishment Russia itself can absorb.
00:43None of those bets is guaranteed to work. But Putin does not need all of them to work.
00:49He only needs enough things to move in his direction before Russia's own problem becomes too expensive to manage.
00:57And that may explain something that otherwise looks irrational from the outside.
01:03Why, after four years of enormous losses, he still appears unwilling to seriously compromise.
01:09So what exactly is Putin waiting for? And which clock runs out first?
01:15Ukraine's? Russia's? Or the patience of the countries supporting Kyiv?
01:20I am Elvira Barry, a writer born in the Soviet Union.
01:23On this channel, I try to explain the mechanisms underneath Russian politics.
01:29They have calculations, incentives, and institutional pressure that make decisions
01:34which look irrational from outside much easier to understand from within.
01:38Today, we are going inside Putin's calculation.
01:41What keeps convincing him to continue?
01:44What events he hopes will change the balance?
01:47And where those expectations could fail?
01:50Here is our roadmap.
01:52The attrition bet.
01:53Why Putin believes Russia can endure the war longer than Ukraine.
01:57The oil bet.
01:59How high oil prices can buy Moscow more time.
02:03The missile bet.
02:04Why Russia is trying to exploit weaknesses in Ukraine's air defenses before they close.
02:11The European bet.
02:13How economic pressure, security fears, and political fragmentation could weaken European support.
02:19The American bet.
02:21Why changes in Washington matter so much to Moscow's strategy.
02:24When the bets fail.
02:26What happens if Russia's own problems mature before Ukrainians do.
02:31This channel exists because of you, my viewers.
02:35I work for you and I am very happy to have an audience willing to look beyond the daily headlines,
02:41connect the dots, and understand how this crazy world actually works.
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03:16I've been publishing my memoirs there, stories about growing up in the Soviet Union, becoming
03:21a writer, immigrating, and some of the stranger and funny things that happened along the way.
03:28Now let's look at Putin's first bet.
03:32The attrition bet.
03:37Putin's first calculation is brutally simple.
03:41Russia has to stay alive longer than Ukraine.
03:44There is a Russian saying that captures the logic perfectly.
03:48Пока толстый сохнет, тонкий сдохнет.
03:51That means, while the fat man gets thinner, the thin man dies.
03:56Both Russia and Ukraine are losing people, equipment, money, and infrastructure in this war.
04:02But both still have resources and the political will to continue fighting.
04:08Putin looks at this and sees an endurance contest.
04:11Russia has a much larger population.
04:14It produces a lot of oil, gas, metals, and grain.
04:18Its government can redirect enormous resources toward war without asking voters for permission.
04:23If civilian industries suffer, the Kremlin can simply demand that society absorb the pain.
04:29And Russia is absorbing plenty of pain.
04:32This year, the government originally expected a federal budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP.
04:41It now expects something close to 3%.
04:45Military spending, fuel shortages, and the need for more air defense are among the reasons.
04:51Moscow plans to borrow more to cover the difference.
04:55That sounds bad, but bad is not the same as impossible.
05:00This is where I think people sometimes misunderstand the strategy.
05:03People does not need Russians to become richer.
05:07He does not even need the Russian economy to grow.
05:10He only needs enough money to pay soldiers, produce weapons, keep the bureaucracy loyal,
05:16and prevent domestic problems from becoming politically unmanageable.
05:19His hope is that Ukraine reaches that breaking point first.
05:25But there is another clock ticking.
05:28Every additional year of war has changed Ukraine and Europe
05:32in ways Putin cannot easily reverse.
05:35Finland joined NATO in 2023.
05:38Sweden followed in 2024.
05:40Two countries that had spent decades outside the alliance
05:44changed course because of Russia's invasion.
05:47Europe also rebuilt its energy system.
05:50In 2021, Russia supplied 45% of the European Union's gas imports.
05:56By 2025, that share was down to 12%.
06:00Russian crude is now only 2% of EU crude imports.
06:05Then there is defense.
06:07European military spending increased sharply in 2025.
06:11This year, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, and Poland are all expected to spend
06:15well above 4% of GDP on core defense.
06:19Across European NATO members and Canada, the average is now around 2.5%.
06:25Ukraine has changed too.
06:27It has built an enormous wartime drone industry.
06:31Ukrainian technology is now valuable enough that Kyiv and Washington are discussing joint production
06:37inside the United States.
06:39Ukraine's strategy is to survive while making every additional month more expensive for Russia.
06:46Deep strike drones already destroy Russian military equipment far from the front line.
06:52Hit logistics and disrupt energy exports.
06:55I have a dedicated video about why Russia is struggling to protect itself against Ukrainian draw
07:00attacks and why this problem has no quick and clean solution.
07:05The oil bet
07:10Putin's second bet received an unexpected gift this year.
07:13Another war in the Middle East.
07:16Earlier in 2026, low oil prices were becoming dangerous for Moscow.
07:21The Kremlin still depends heavily on money coming from outside the country
07:25and oil provides a large part of that flow.
07:28Then the conflict around Iran disrupted supplies from the Gulf.
07:33Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel again.
07:36By mid-September, Russia's ESPO crude was selling above $120, while Urals had climbed to around $110.
07:46For Moscow, that changes their arithmetic.
07:48Russia does not need Europe to buy this oil anymore.
07:51China remains a major customer. It has increased seaborn purchases as refiners
07:58search for alternatives to disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
08:02India imported roughly 2 million barrels of Russian oil per day in August.
08:07Much of the trade moves through the network Russia created after Western sanctions.
08:12Non-Western traders, old tankers, obscure ownership structures,
08:18alternative insurers and ports far from Europe.
08:21So high global prices help Putin twice.
08:25Russia can sell fewer barrels and still earn substantial money.
08:29And sanctions become politically harder to tighten because anything that removes
08:34more Russian oil from the world market can push prices even higher.
08:39But Ukraine is attacking another part of this machine.
08:43Russia's ability to turn crude oil into usable and exportable fuel.
08:48This year, Ukrainian drones have repeatedly hit refineries and porting infrastructure.
08:53By September, half of Russia's largest diesel-producing refineries had reduced output after attacks.
09:00Russia responded by restricting exports of gasoline, diesel,
09:04jet fuel and other products to protect its domestic market.
09:08On September 20, drones struck the Moscow refinery.
09:11Two major processing units were damaged and crude processing stopped.
09:16The repairs are expected to take weeks.
09:19This creates a strange situation.
09:21If a refinery stops working, the crude oil does not disappear.
09:26Russia can sometimes export that crude instead.
09:29In fact, Moscow's own forecasts now expect higher crude exports this year,
09:35partly because damaged refineries cannot process as much oil at home.
09:39Much of that extra crude goes to China and India.
09:44So, you may look at Russian export numbers and think the Ukrainian strikes are failing.
09:50Not necessarily.
09:52Selling crude is one thing.
09:54Turning crude into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, chemicals and other high-value products is another.
10:02Russia needs those fuels inside the country to keep its agriculture, industry and military moving.
10:08When refineries keep breaking, the government faces an unpleasant choice.
10:13Export valuable fuel and earn much-needed foreign currency,
10:17or keep it at home to prevent shortages.
10:21This year, Moscow has repeatedly chosen the second, but still it faced fuel shortages.
10:29The missile bet
10:33Putin's third bet is much more immediate.
10:37Russia believes it has found a temporary hole in Ukraine's defense
10:41and it wants to exploit that hole before it closes.
10:45That opening is ballistic missiles.
10:48Ukraine can shoot down Russian drones and intercept cruise missiles.
10:52But ballistic missiles are different.
10:54They fly extremely fast, descend steeply and leave defenders very little time to react.
11:00For Ukraine, the most important defense against them has been the American Patriot system.
11:07And Patriot interceptors are scarce.
11:10This summer, Russia began taking advantage of that shortage in a particularly cynical way.
11:16Instead of using only Iskandar ballistic missiles, it started firing large numbers of old RM-48U missiles
11:25that were originally built as targets for air defense training.
11:29They are less accurate, but accuracy is not always the point.
11:34According to Ukrainian data, these repurposed missiles made up more than half of 228 Russian
11:42ballistic and hypersonic strikes during July and the first eight days of August.
11:48At the same time, Russia could preserve its more advanced Iskandar and North Korean KN-23 missiles for later attacks.
11:57Last month, one of these converted missiles struck a railway platform near Kyiv.
12:04Eight people were killed.
12:05This is attrition in the sky.
12:07And drones add another layer.
12:09Russia is now using faster jet-powered Shahed drones that fly too high for many of the cheap mobile
12:16teams Ukraine uses against ordinary Shaheds.
12:20Ukrainian officials say interception rates against these new versions are much lower.
12:26So Moscow can mix the threats.
12:30The goal is to exhaust the whole defensive system.
12:33That gives Putin another reason to believe time is on his side.
12:38Russia has spent years expanding missile and drone production.
12:42Ukraine still depends heavily on weapons whose factories are thousands of miles away
12:48and whose output must be shared with other American allies.
12:53But again, this advantage is not permanent.
12:55American industry is finally expanding Patriot production.
12:59In August, General Motors defense began supplying components for PAC-3 interceptors
13:04to Lockheed Martin only weeks after signing a manufacturing agreement.
13:10Lockheed is investing billions of dollars to increase production of Patriots and other missiles.
13:17The European bet
13:22Putin's fourth bet is that Europeans begin protecting themselves first
13:27and helping Ukraine second.
13:29You can already see why this could work.
13:32Europe is facing another energy shock.
13:35Gas storage is only about 69% full, compared with an average of 85% at this point in recent
13:43years.
13:43Gas prices have risen sharply.
13:46Diesel is expensive.
13:48And governments are under pressure to protect households from energy bills.
13:53And when voters become frightened about their own heating bills, jobs, or security,
13:59Ukraine has to compete for attention.
14:01This is where hybrid operations become useful.
14:04In August, Germany said Russia was behind an attempted explosive drone attack at Leipzig airport.
14:11France says Russian-linked cyberattacks, sabotage, and drone operations across Europe have intensified.
14:18Moscow denies responsibility and says European accusations are baseless.
14:23French President Emmanuel Macron described the purpose very clearly.
14:29Intimidate Europeans and weaken their willingness to support Ukraine.
14:33You do not actually have to invade Poland for this strategy to work.
14:37You only have to make a Polish voter wonder whether those missiles being sent to Ukraine
14:43will soon be needed in Poland.
14:45Make a German politician wonder whether money should go to Kyiv or to German air defense.
14:53Make a French voter ask why France is spending abroad while fuel prices rise at home.
14:59Then elections do the rest.
15:02Germany gives us the clearest example.
15:05The alternative for Germany has called for ending Germany military aid to Ukraine and
15:10restoring economic relations with Russia.
15:13Its leaders are even preparing talks with Putin's economic envoy about eventually starting Russian gas supplies.
15:22In France, Marine Le Pen's national rally has questioned the level and
15:27conditions of French financial support for Ukraine and calls for more diplomacy.
15:31However, in September, Le Pen and Jordan Bardella issued an
15:37unusually strong statement condemning Russian hybrid operations.
15:40They said Russia must not be allowed to dictate French policy through intimidation and that hostile
15:47Russian actions must not result in France helping Moscow achieve its war aims.
15:52So there is no unified army of pro-Putin parties marching toward power.
15:58The real danger is fragmentation.
16:01One government wants cheaper Russian gas.
16:03Another wants to keep its air defense missiles at home.
16:07Each decision can sound reasonable in isolation.
16:11But together, they can weaken the collective response.
16:15There is an old historical pattern here.
16:18When the Mongols conquered the Rus' principalities,
16:21they benefited from dealing with divided princes who worried first about their own survival.
16:27Each hoped somebody else would suffer the blow.
16:30Modern Europe is obviously nothing like medieval rules, but the strategic temptation is recognizable.
16:38Keep your resources, because you may need them yourself.
16:41And yet Russian pressure can produce the opposite results.
16:45Europe is currently building joint-run defenses, missile defenses, early warning systems,
16:51maritime protection, and new defenses for its eastern flank.
16:55The American bet
17:00Putin's fifth bet may be the most important one.
17:04He bets on weakening American support of Ukraine.
17:07While Ukraine produces many of its own drones and gas artillery shells from Europe,
17:13certain technologies still depend heavily on the United States.
17:17Patriot is the obvious example.
17:19It remains one of the few Western systems capable of reliably intercepting the ballistic missiles
17:25Russia increasingly launches at Ukrainian cities.
17:28Ukraine can buy more launches.
17:31But without enough interceptors, the launches are useless.
17:35That dependence has become painfully visible.
17:38President Donald Trump has entered the previous model of large-scale direct American military assistance.
17:44A growing share of US-made weapons for Ukraine is now paid for by European allies.
17:50In September, Trump even said he wanted Europe to reimburse the United States for early assistance.
17:58For Putin, this looks promising.
18:00But look more closely and the picture becomes less comfortable for Moscow.
18:06In July, Trump agreed politically to let Ukraine manufacture Patriot interceptors under US license.
18:13Production will take time, but the direction matters.
18:18Ukraine is trying to turn a permanent dependency into a manufacturing problem that can eventually be solved.
18:25Europe has also begun changing its role.
18:29Instead of waiting for Washington to donate weapons,
18:32European governments can pay American manufacturers directly.
18:36That system already exists through NATO's prioritized Ukraine requirements list.
18:41Then there are sanctions.
18:43This September, the US House passed another package aimed at Russian energy companies,
18:49defense businesses, and tankers used to bypass sanctions.
18:53It would also give the president powers to impose very high tariffs on countries continuing major purchases of Russian energy.
19:01That matters because the American financial system still gives Washington leverage
19:06Europe alone cannot fully reproduce.
19:09So, Putin's American bet is really about timing.
19:12Can Washington become distracted, divided, or transactional fast enough to create
19:17critical gaps between Europe and Ukraine-built alternatives?
19:22When the bets fade
19:26Now, we can finally put Putin's five bets together.
19:30What would the victory actually look like for him?
19:33It would look like a rush of success achieved through exhaustion.
19:37Ukraine loses enough infrastructure, soldiers, investment, and air defense that its negotiating position becomes weaker.
19:47Europe still supports Ukraine, but different governments start attaching different conditions.
19:53America continues helping, but slowly and selectively.
19:58Russia keeps earning enough from oil to replenish weapons and recruit soldiers.
20:04Eventually, Moscow hopes to obtain at the negotiating table some of what it could not obtain on the battlefield.
20:12That is why Putin can tolerate what looks to us like failure.
20:15But now let's reverse the calculation.
20:19What if Russia's own problems mature first?
20:22Russia is not currently collapsing.
20:24Its government can still borrow and national debt remains relatively low.
20:29Oil revenues have improved because of high global prices.
20:33However, Russia's economy is now growing at roughly 1%.
20:37Inflation remains high.
20:40Credit is expensive.
20:41Businesses complain about labor shortages.
20:44Fuel shortages have spread across parts of the country after repeated Ukrainian attacks on refineries.
20:50None of these problems alone stops a war.
20:53But together, they change its price.
20:55This is what Ukraine needs if Putin's time strategy is to fail.
21:00Not one spectacular collapse, but a continuous increase in the cost of keeping the same work going.
21:07Before you go, I want to ask you something personal.
21:09Have you ever watched someone keep investing more and more into a plan that clearly wasn't working because
21:15admitting the original decision was wrong had become more painful than continuing?
21:21What finally made them stop?
21:24If this episode helped you understand Putin's calculation more clearly, please like the video,
21:30subscribe, and share it with someone who is trying to understand why this war continues
21:36even after years of enormous costs.
21:39And if you want to help make this kind of independent analysis possible, you can support the research behind
21:46these videos through my Think Tank, PayPal, or SuperThings.
21:49That support helps fund source checking, translation, historical research, and the time it takes to
21:56connect developments that often look unrelated in the daily news.
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22:08I'll see you in the next one.