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Sammy P's favorite bets for this weekend.
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00:00Sam Paniadovich. Sam loves a lock.
00:03I don't want to assume anything here, but I do want to ask, just in case,
00:07were you listening to us the last 20 minutes?
00:10No, we were taping a segment. I apologize.
00:13No apology necessary.
00:15Yeah, no, exactly.
00:16You can't believe you got the nerve to be doing your job, Sam,
00:19before you join us for free like you do every week year-round.
00:22I just wanted to know if I was going to need to lay the whole thing out again.
00:26How many people...
00:27Go ahead.
00:28Okay. No, no, you got it.
00:29How many people do you need in a room or anywhere
00:34for the odds to be better than 50-50 that two will have the same birthday?
00:41Not year, just date.
00:44You want to know the number or you want to guess?
00:46I'd probably start at 100.
00:49So the number is 26.
00:50Yep, that's kind of what I thought, Sam.
00:52If you have 26 people in a room, like you say, a kid's classroom or something,
00:59it's like 50-50 that two will have the same birthday.
01:02I don't believe that.
01:04No.
01:04What do you think?
01:05I don't believe that.
01:07You don't believe it?
01:08Mm-hmm.
01:10What you do is 1 in 365 times 2 in 365 times 3 in 365 until you get to, like,
01:18plus 0.5,
01:20until you get to that number, and you just sort of reverse it.
01:23And so this is a fun little game to play at bars.
01:27If you have 40 people in the bar, right?
01:30Because your odds are going to be...
01:32What did we say?
01:32I thought maybe closer to 90%.
01:34The two will have the same birthday.
01:35I just got told by a friend of mine, my friend John Gale, this piqued his curiosity,
01:39so he did a quick search, and he says 50 people, the odds go to 97.4%.
01:45Yeah.
01:46I thought it might have been higher than that, but still pretty likely.
01:49So I don't know.
01:51Do with that what you please, Sam.
01:53I don't know why this triggered a memory like this, but it reminds me, we had this really,
01:58really funny teacher in high school who used to always, like, make life difficult on 16
02:05and 17-year-olds, and he gave us a true or false test once, 50 questions, and every
02:11answer was true.
02:12I love it.
02:14And he's watching this room, like, look around, like, there's no way these can all be true.
02:18So mentally, you get to seven or eight, and you're like, that's got to be false, right?
02:23Right.
02:24If not two.
02:25Everyone you're on the fence on is false.
02:27I am blowing this, right.
02:30And he's sitting up there just dying laughing, watching us take this test.
02:34And I think the highest score somebody got was a 34 or something like that, because nobody
02:39was going to have, you know...
02:41A clean sheet of truths, right, right.
02:43You got to have at least 12 falses.
02:4712 falses.
02:48I love that.
02:50Very good.
02:51So, what's the week in betting here looking like?
02:55Bills-Ravens might as well start there.
02:57Bills have been three or three-and-a-half-point favorites.
03:00Which is the public side?
03:03I think it's good two-way at this point.
03:05I mean, there's an appetite, obviously, to always bet Buffalo.
03:07People love the Bills as short favorites, and that's going to be one of the most popular
03:12money line plays.
03:13But also, the Ravens are rarely getting points.
03:15So, you know, when you hang a line three and it doesn't really move that much, that's
03:21indicative of good two-way action.
03:23You know, there's always going to be, like I said, people that are going to go, ooh, Buffalo's
03:27only minus three.
03:28But then you're going to see people take this really talented Ravens team catching points.
03:32So, it's good two-way.
03:33I think Buffalo's a smidge more public, but Baltimore's going to be very trendy as well.
03:39It's a really, really well-lined game.
03:41The total has been bet up as well.
03:42Shocker.
03:43Was that the game last year that Buffalo rallied back and won the game in the 30s and 40s?
03:4841-40 opening day.
03:50Yeah.
03:50I mean, that total was like 56, I think.
03:53And obviously, it goes over 81 points.
03:55So, open 53-and-a-half, and now I see a 55 in Vegas.
04:00So, definitely some over-appetite and should be a pretty good two-way game with action on
04:06both sides.
04:07Two things on that from me.
04:09One is that last year's game, I mean, those teams didn't walk into week one with any kind
04:16of reputation for having sloppy defenses.
04:19And it's still got over 80 points in the game.
04:23And they've got injuries, too.
04:24I mean, this seems even more ripe for a game like that.
04:29I talked to Jeremy Kahn, a radio host in Baltimore, a couple of days ago, and he's a gambler, as
04:34he said.
04:35And he said, like, I'm not even going to look at the under.
04:37I'm not even going to think about it.
04:39Just with these two teams together.
04:40So, I mean, you know how that can be.
04:42But, yeah, I mean, I think it's probably on paper more of a game you could see going skyward
04:50than last year's was.
04:52Yeah, and Lamar's got the high ankle, so that's something to certainly monitor.
04:56But after not playing in three games, for him to come back and be a full participant
05:01in practice, that tells me that he feels good enough to do what he's supposed to do.
05:06That's the type of guy that, you know, when he's out there, you get his all.
05:10He's not going to be, you know, taking it easy, if you will.
05:14Like, if he's cleared to play, he's going to play, and he's not going to change his
05:18style.
05:18So, I don't think the high ankle is going to be a concern.
05:21We'll know right away, though, guys.
05:23I mean, they're probably going to have him taped up and all that, and you'll be able
05:26to tell first, second quarter how willing he is to run and boogie about the cabin.
05:30But, yeah, that's not a fun under to bet.
05:33Like, wide guys like to bet under in games like this, but a lot of times they know that
05:36in the second quarter they're cooked.
05:39What else do you like Sunday?
05:41I love Arizona, plus seven.
05:44I just, I don't understand.
05:46Yeah, with that defense, I mean, Tanner McKee was moving the ball pretty nicely until they
05:51had the really bad interception in the fourth quarter.
05:54That was just a public hammering, too.
05:56The public was all over the Cowboys, like four, four and a half, and public got their money
06:00in that one.
06:01But now Dallas is laying seven.
06:03I just, I can't with their defense.
06:06That total tells us a story, too.
06:07Fifty-four and a half.
06:08Arizona's going to score.
06:10So I think it's just one of those NFL games that's, you know, tied late, and the protection
06:15of the seven is very important to me.
06:17Like, I hate betting six and a half in the NFL.
06:19We get seven, though.
06:21So we're protected on, you know, 28-21 or 35-28 or whatever.
06:25I like Arizona, and then the wise guys bet the Jets.
06:28They move them to the favorite against Vegas.
06:32Vegas opened up small favorite.
06:33Now the Jets are like one, one and a half.
06:35I don't love betting on Aaron Glenn, but the wise guys did it this week.
06:39Did I get away with it on Dallas and Survivor last week?
06:42I didn't need to cover.
06:43I never felt worried about it, but maybe I was a little bit of a sucker picking them
06:48in that one.
06:50No, I mean, like, Philly wasn't going to win.
06:53I don't think I was ever worried for your Survivor.
06:55I just, I think they could certainly have covered, though, because they were down, they
06:59were down seven, and then I think Dallas kicked a field goal to make it ten, and the backdoor
07:03was wide open.
07:04Like, if a touchdown would have made it three, but Tanner McKee threw it away.
07:07This is that time of the year, though, guys, where you just get bad quarterbacks.
07:10I mean, some of these guys shouldn't be in the league, and they're quarterbacking teams,
07:14and it's very fun.
07:16You want to build, like, a money-line parlay going against a couple backup quarterbacks.
07:20Usually those aren't bad ideas.
07:21That was Bill's Raiders.
07:23That was Bill's Raiders.
07:25Bulldog had the Bills, and it was ten, and then they scored.
07:28So, cover.
07:29Backdoor cover.
07:30Kirk Cousins, backdoor.
07:31What do you, you got any thoughts on KC Denver?
07:34I know some guys that played a little under in that one at 41.
07:39I mean, both of these offenses are just not great right now.
07:42I couldn't believe, I was watching the game.
07:44That was Monday, right?
07:45Or Sunday night, Seattle and Kansas City.
07:47I think it was Sunday.
07:48I saw a graphic at the end of the game that that was the first time ever that Mahomes and
07:52Andy Reid never got into the red zone in a single game.
07:55I'm like, that's a problem.
07:57Jeff Schwartz was actually on Bear Bets talking about their offensive line and how it's a real
08:02problem right now in Kansas City.
08:03And they just can't complete downfield throws.
08:07Like, all their stuff is short.
08:08Everything's, like, short and intermediate and screen passing.
08:11They don't really have a take to cover off the top guy.
08:15And Denver certainly is very good defensively as well.
08:19So, I saw some bets under 41 for sure.
08:23And then the other NFL play I think we should talk about is the Chicago side.
08:28I believe we discussed this last Friday on your show.
08:31Ben Johnson is a play caller.
08:33He just makes you money.
08:3418-4-1 against the spread.
08:37No, that goes back to Detroit when he's calling plays with Jared Goff.
08:40And, you know, maybe it's a wide scope from a stat standpoint.
08:46But I believe it.
08:47And, I mean, like, Ben's guys just perform in prime time.
08:50That was true in Detroit.
08:51It's true in Chicago.
08:52So, 18-4-1 against the spread.
08:55Ben Johnson is a play caller in prime time.
08:57And the Bears are catching three on Monday night.
09:00They just got Jeffrey Simmons, too.
09:02That's a massive trade for them.
09:04They gave two first-rounders up to get Simmons.
09:06But he's going to play Monday night.
09:07How about that?
09:08It's Jeffrey Simmons for the Bears going up against Quentin Nelson for the Seahawks.
09:12Right.
09:13Which is very cool.
09:14Yeah, they talked to Nelson the other day.
09:16He's like, I can't escape this guy.
09:18Right, in the division the whole time, right?
09:20Yeah.
09:21So, now they're going to play Monday night.
09:22But that's a side Chicago plus three that will definitely get my money.
09:26How'd you do last night, quickly?
09:29I didn't have a single bet last night.
09:31Okay.
09:31I've had a very good year in their little pick segment.
09:34But I took Carolina.
09:36And I feel like it's one of the worst picks I've ever made.
09:39Always easier in retrospect.
09:41But, I mean, I'm watching that game like, what am I doing?
09:43Why did I take...
09:46I feel like that's a bad team against a good one.
09:49And I decided maybe that wasn't true.
09:51And took Carolina.
09:52Bad.
09:52Just a bad job.
09:53It can be hard to trust Green Bay, though.
09:55They can be erratic.
09:57Bad team, good team.
09:59Isn't it?
10:00Isn't that sort of one where you look back and think you could have just bet the house?
10:03I mean, you could always do that, I suppose.
10:06Anyway.
10:07What about tomorrow, Sam?
10:09What stands out?
10:10Our favorite bet is UConn against Air Force.
10:13Air Force is on quarterback three.
10:15Famous last words.
10:16I think last time we talked about a third string quarterback.
10:19UMass went down the field with a third stringer and ripped my heart out.
10:24But, I mean, I don't need to tell you guys that Air Force isn't exactly stocked with quarterbacks.
10:29So, their first guy's been out.
10:31And then the second guy got hurt last week.
10:32They ruled him out, I think, Tuesday or Wednesday.
10:34We bet UConn plus three.
10:37The market is now one, one and a half.
10:39We just think UConn should be favored.
10:40They're a lot better than people realize.
10:42And I don't believe in the third string quarterback at Air Force.
10:45So, that one got our money.
10:46And then we also bet, naturally, you want to fade these teams that have big wins that aren't that good.
10:53You want to fade them the next week.
10:54So, Illinois was at home last week and they beat Oregon.
10:57Huge win.
10:58Huge win.
10:59And now they're on the road against Maryland and the number's only three.
11:03And you're like, wow, that looks so easy.
11:05They just beat Oregon.
11:06And you know they're going to lose.
11:07So, Maryland has the old fired coach bump, which is usually a nice trend.
11:15And it usually makes you money when you go to the team that just fired the coach.
11:19Usually, they're just playing, like, you know, out of their minds because they're so happy that they don't have to
11:24listen to some idiot coach anymore.
11:26So, we bet a little Maryland plus three against Illinois.
11:30You're an Illinois guy, right?
11:31Alumni?
11:32Oh, yeah.
11:32I know.
11:33This is a game they always lose, Mike.
11:35Okay.
11:36Did you have anything on the World Series, good or bad?
11:40No, I didn't make any World Series bets.
11:42I was staring at this Mizorowski over in the last game.
11:46It was only five and a half.
11:47And I'm like, what am I missing here?
11:49Strikeouts?
11:50Yeah, over five and a half strikeouts.
11:51I think he struck out two, and then he left with cramps.
11:54So, sometimes it's the bets you don't make that make you feel good.
11:58Like, I was like, oh, man, he's going to strike out at least six.
12:01That looks so easy.
12:01And he went into the six.
12:03So, yeah, two outs in the six.
12:04So, five and two thirds.
12:05It's not like he didn't get a full runway there.
12:08Sometimes you look at a line and you're like,
12:11that stinks.
12:13Something about that stinks.
12:14So, I'm glad I stayed away from that over.
12:16But, no, I didn't have anything.
12:18I wish – I was looking at Milwaukee stock like in July and August,
12:22and I'm like, nah, I missed it.
12:23I missed the move.
12:24And what do I – those are two bets I really regret this year.
12:28Milwaukee was like 10-1, and I didn't do it.
12:31And I remember sitting on this show,
12:33and we were talking about PCA at 10-1 MVP,
12:36and I'm like, nah, we missed it.
12:38And then a month later, he's minus 300.
12:40You know, like those are the ones that make you think.
12:43You have a friend that had a bigger payout on –
12:46Yeah, he had 40-1 on PCA.
12:49That's what scared you off.
12:51Yeah.
12:51Well, I know.
12:52You never want to be late to the party,
12:53but sometimes the party goes all night.
12:54Right, Bulldog?
12:56Sometimes, Sam.
12:57Sometimes.
12:58Sometimes.
12:58What's that to you?
12:59And sometimes everyone leaves at midnight,
13:00and you're like, why?
13:01I had a house full of people.
13:02What the hell?
13:03Now I'm ready to go.
13:04Sometimes your wife begs you to leave so she can stay longer.
13:07This might have all happened last year in my attic slash house.
13:11I want – real quick before you go, Sam,
13:13it had nothing to do with gambling really,
13:14but what does Milwaukee winning do in Chicago?
13:18Like, do you people in Chicago view people in Milwaukee as farmers?
13:22Like, what is the relationship like?
13:25I've had some great times in Milwaukee.
13:27It's a great drinking city,
13:28so I'm probably the wrong person to ask because I like them.
13:31I think you can split it right down the middle, though.
13:33The Cubs fans were mostly rooting against,
13:35and the Sox fans were like, yeah, Milwaukee's a great story.
13:38You know, the Cubs and Brewers, they're not hated rivals.
13:43You know, that's more Cubs-Cardinals.
13:44Right.
13:44But I think most Cubs fans were rooting against Milwaukee
13:49because, you know, like the Bears fans hate the Packers,
13:52and the Brewers and Packers are cousins.
13:54So that's sort of the vibe here.
13:56But as a Sox guy, I thought it was a great story,
13:59and I love their manager, Murphy.
14:02I think he's just a cool dude.
14:04Clearly that locker room really respects him and loves him,
14:07and they just played such a fun style.
14:09Like, that one World Series game when they had 10 runs
14:11and none of them were via the home run,
14:13like, that's just old-school baseball,
14:15and there's a lot to respect there.
14:17Thanks for your time, as always, Sam.
14:18Enjoy the weekend.
14:19All right, let's go UConn, baby!
14:22UConn, whoever my survivor picks are,
14:24we'll have to decide on that at some point soon,
14:28and whoever else that you're on.
14:31We're rooting for you, too.
14:32We're rooting for your teams.
14:33We're rooting for your teams.
14:33...
14:33We're rooting for you, too.