- 5 minutes ago
Gary Meyers hosts the Friday Fast 15 with Don Day, Carlos Legaspy, and Robert Genetski. Weather, markets, and the economy, with discussion of water, energy, the election, earnings, and the market outlook.
Recorded October 30, 2026. The Meyers Report.
Recorded October 30, 2026. The Meyers Report.
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00:07Welcome to the Myers Report, Friday Fast 15. It is October 30th, 2026.
00:14Today, Dayweather's Don Day will project the winners of the rain runoff and Election Day.
00:21Carlos Legaspi of Precise Investments, which operates in the U.S. and throughout South America,
00:28is going to analyze the markets in this tumultuous election season, and our own regular friend,
00:37Bob Janetsky, is going to give us his take on the markets and the times. Don, what is happening
00:43in Lake Powell, and where is it, and why is it important? Well, it's important because water,
00:51water, water, and especially in the western United States, places like Las Vegas, places like Phoenix,
00:59places like Albuquerque, the most populous part of the southwestern United States. Keep in mind that
01:06the metropolitan area of Phoenix is now well over 5 million people. I mean, it's huge. So they have
01:13more people than they have water. And the wet weather, which is the start of this El Nino pattern
01:20we're seeing, is really helping. Because as you can see from this graph, Lake Powell, which is in
01:26northern Arizona, into southern Utah, and is connected to the Lake Mead system, which is by
01:35Las Vegas, they got dangerously close to water being so low it was going to stop going into the
01:41intake. But in the last six weeks, we have seen a 14-foot increase in the levels at Lake Powell.
01:49That is a tremendous amount of water. So for the western United States-
01:53How often does that kind of an increase occur?
01:56Well, not very often. And it rarely happens in the fall. So this is a bit unusual to have it
02:04happen
02:04in the fall. But this is, in terms of the economy in this part of the country is going to
02:14really be
02:14dictated in the coming years by water. They've decided to build very large cities and deserts,
02:21which is not the most wisest thing in the world, but it's happening. So this is good news. This
02:27doesn't last forever. But this is going to kind of stave off what could have been a big water crisis
02:33next year.
02:35Don, why are energy prices going up in Europe? Is there something to do with the weather?
02:40Sure. Surprise.
02:41Yes. So this is also a bit unusual. Usually in an El Nino, the fall can be warm in Europe.
02:47But this has kind of caught some people off guard. And it's caught the markets off guard
02:51because they were told an El Nino is going to be meaning a mild October and early November. And
02:57the opposite has happened, as you can see there on all the blue and the green. And if you look
03:02at
03:02natural gas prices in Europe, this goes back to a year. Look at this spike. So here we go. Whether
03:12or not this continues throughout all of winter, this is something that the energy markets and
03:18gas, natural gas storage in Europe, they weren't anticipating this. So we'll see if this continues
03:26throughout the winter or not. My guess is going to be some ups and downs this winter. We're going to
03:30have some warm periods. But this is not a good start to energy costs in Europe this winter.
03:37It's interesting. Two days ago, the new British prime minister spoke to parliament and they are
03:43cutting back on their climate policies. They want to make Great Britain more energy independent
03:51because they see what they've done in the past has totally killed them in terms of energy
03:57availability and costs. What is your forecast for election day, November 3rd?
04:03Well, if we're talking about a forecast for weather, this is what it looks like.
04:08We don't have like a major snow event really anywhere forecasted for the lower 48. But you can
04:15see in the middle of the country there and into the northern Great Lakes and northern parts of the
04:20upper Midwest down into East Texas, down into the Gulf Coast region. It is going to be wet with rain
04:27and
04:28some thunderstorm activity, but the rest of the country pretty quiet on election day.
04:32So basically, if you want to avoid getting wet, vote early if you can. And interestingly enough,
04:41since most Republicans tend to vote on election day, this could have an impact on the results. Interesting.
04:49Carlos Legaspi, what will be the impact of the Brazilian election and Bolsonaro's fleeing to the US?
04:59What will be the impact for us and over there?
05:03Well, the Brazilian market had a huge correction after the election dropped about 20 percent from
05:12the highs. But given that it had gone up 20 percent before the election, it kind of just took us
05:19back to
05:19even versus where we were at the beginning of the year. So it gave up all the gains were about
05:25flat
05:25for the year across all markets, equities, the currency, interest rates. So definitely the market was
05:35this was a surprise for the markets and and corrected accordingly. In terms of the impact outside Brazil,
05:44very limited, you know, though the even though it's the largest market in Latin America is still tiny
05:50compared to US markets. So the main drivers in for the US markets have been the the earnings that
05:59they're being reported and and of course interest rates and price of energy.
06:05So how are how are our markets being impacted by this election season?
06:11Right now, I think the market has already discounted
06:17a flipping of the House of Representatives in terms of economic policy is somewhat irrelevant,
06:26whether it's the Senate flips or not, because all you need is one of the two chambers to flip to
06:32prevent reconciliation. And so you get gridlock, whether you get one or two chambers. So that's
06:38already baked in. So right now, primarily focuses is interest rate trajectory and what is
06:46the expected what happens if the market if the house does not flip? How will the markets react then?
06:56I think you would have a big rally.
06:58Okay, interest rates are falling despite the uncertainty. Is this because investors are anticipating a post-election sell off?
07:08Well, it's depending where you see, you know, what part of the curve you're looking at. So you're seeing a
07:16higher bond prices, lower yields on the 10 year or the longer end of the curve. And it's a lot
07:27of it is
07:28it's it's flight to flight to safety. You know, though, you know, you sell you sell equities and what do
07:36you buy?
07:36You know, and so a lot of it is typical, you know, safety trade.
07:43So could this could this be people selling off anticipating the possibility of a market decline and
07:50they'll get back in as soon as the election is settled?
07:53Correct. So it's the the the the the big the biggest many mutual funds close their fiscal year
08:02today. So whatever gains or losses they've had year to date, that's what's going to be their performance
08:09report and all of their year end reports. So so if they're up, they have an incentive of liquidating
08:16and then liquidate and then where you put the money, you know, treasuries.
08:21So we're very interested in what's going to happen the first two weeks of November.
08:26There are two window dressings, October 30th and December 31st, depending on the
08:32reporting period for these large institutions. So I don't think that the appreciation in the bonds is
08:42driven on any change of expectations on inflation. It's just more, you know, well, I sell one thing,
08:48I got to buy something else. So you don't see much of a change in the markets after the election?
08:55I see a potential rebound, but not because of the election, just because of the seasonality that
09:02that that occurs this summer year.
09:04The summer year. OK, Dr. Bob, how did the stock markets do this week?
09:11They were all over the place. Some markets were up. The small, small cap markets were up. The
09:19the S&P 500 was just the main market had very little change. It's up and down,
09:27very close to key support areas. One day it will be above that support area. The next day will be
09:33below
09:34that support area. That support area is generally the 21 day and the 50 day moving averages.
09:41But we're still above the 200 day average. So from a technical standpoint, we still have the bull
09:47market going. Are the what are the indicators showing a strong economy?
09:53They are, at least as I look at them. You know, we had a pretty good report for the third
09:59quarter,
10:00with the market up three and a half percent at an annual rate. That's that's a pretty good, pretty good
10:06march. There are some questions regarding how strong it is going into the fourth quarter.
10:14Some of the data we got last week shows that the important factor from my standpoint,
10:20that's incomes and wages had slowed pretty significantly in September. That was the first
10:27indication of maybe things weren't as good as we as they appear from business surveys. We've got some
10:34bunch of business surveys for October coming out next week, and that'll help determine the extent to
10:41which the economy is growing. My forecast is that the fourth quarter is going to be a strong quarter.
10:46The aside from the business surveys, we've got some really good performance in terms of
10:52new orders for durable goods, both in the total and when we take out the highly volatile aircraft and
11:00defense components. Both of those in the past three and six month periods are growing at 11 percent
11:08annual rates. So double digit annual rates. That's really good. And the final thing is the corporate
11:14profits. Third quarter corporate profits with maybe 40 percent of the S&P having reported are up about 30
11:24percent from a year ago. That's the third quarter in a row of gains of more than 25 percent in
11:32the S&P 500
11:34company profits. That's really spectacular. And it's a function of the AI, which is where the earnings are
11:42so strong. So the question, and Carlos referred to it also, the question is, is the AI development real?
11:54And are those profits and revenues going to continue to come in at what seem to be such extraordinary rates?
12:01My opinion is that, yes, the AI is real and that we are going to get concerned over time about
12:09too much debt,
12:11too fast a growth in profits would start to slow down. But on balance, I think the AI is for
12:18real.
12:18I think this is a technological revolution that's going to reshape everything that we do. And there are
12:25going to be a lot of profits to be made. And they're not just for the AI companies. The profit
12:31figures that
12:31are coming in are pretty broad based across different industry factors. To me, that tells me that it's not
12:39just the AI companies, but just as people benefited from the smartphone, companies are going to become more
12:46productive based on the AI revolution. So how does your model show the market growth after the election?
12:56You know, daily, it flips each day. When we see the market going below the
13:06technical areas of support, the daily reading moves down to close to a neutral. And when you go back
13:15above, it moves back to a positive. I usually take a seven day moving average. But this has been
13:22happening now for the past four months almost. So if you look at the past four months, you'd have to
13:29say all the momentum is out of the market. If you look, however, at the fact that it's still above
13:34the
13:35200 day moving average, there's still some positive momentum. What does all that mean? It means to me that the
13:42odds
13:43of a continued bull market in the next couple of weeks are only slightly positive. I put them at 55%.
13:52And the odds that we will go in the opposite direction of 45%. Those odds have been roughly
13:59the same for the past four months. So we really have an undecided market.
14:06Okay, guys, we are less than only a few days away from election day. This is your last chance. So
14:17the
14:18question of the the week is, will the Republicans retain the House or the Senate, or will the Democrats
14:25regain some power? Don Day, your call.
14:28I think it's going to be a split. I think they win the House, the Republicans keep the Senate.
14:34Bob.
14:35Well, I looked at the betting odds and the betting odds are so overwhelmingly in favor of the Democrats,
14:42almost winning both houses, that you'd have to lean that way if you're better. I've got two people.
14:50I've got you as one of my associates, Gary, and my son Dennis, who's been very accurate over time,
14:56who are both saying that both houses are going to go with the Republicans. And I'm going to join
15:01you guys. I'm going to say, yes, this is going to be a great election.
15:05Carlos.
15:07Right now, we have 90% probability of Democrats taking the House and about 60% probability taking
15:14the Senate.
15:16That's where the betting odds are.
15:18But what do you think?
15:19I'm betting against the betting odds.
15:21I concur with it. I think that I still consider it within margin of error in the Senate,
15:29so it's a coin toss, but it's pretty much baked in the cake, the House. It's only four seats.
15:36I'm betting with my heart, not my mind.
15:39Okay. On that, have a nice weekend. Be well, stay safe, and God bless America.