00:00Fawaz Jejas is a professor of Middle Eastern politics and international relations at the London School of Economics.
00:06What exactly is Iran's foreign minister threatening the German leader with?
00:12Well, I don't think he's, I don't think that Iran's foreign minister directly threatening the German chancellor.
00:20I think it's part of Iran's consistent strategy of deterrence.
00:26That's what the Iranian foreign minister was saying, that Iran now is willing to take risks.
00:32And if and when the third round of war basically is renewed against Iran, Iran will respond with no headlines
00:44whatsoever.
00:44And I think the German chancellor Merz's comments in June 2025 triggered, attracted a great deal widespread criticism and anger
00:58in Iran and beyond.
01:00Here you have the German chancellor basically hailing the American-Israeli war against Iran because in his opinion, in his
01:10words, that they were doing Europe's dirty work.
01:14So the Iranians never, have never forgotten and never forgiven the German chancellor comment by supporting the American-Israeli war.
01:26And they were responding to his comments, which really, I mean, when he was in South Korea, he was not
01:32really talking about, on the contrary, he was saying there is no military solution to the conflict.
01:37But they were reminding the Americans and the Israelis that if and when war comes, Iran will respond with massive
01:46shattering, basically, attacks against the United States and Israeli targets.
01:53What sort of effect is all of this having on the current attempts at negotiations in Doha?
02:01Well, look, I mean, I think if you ask me about the big picture now, the question is not really
02:07when war will come, but in fact, whether the new round of war, whether the new round of hostilities will
02:19make any difference, will change the stalemate, the balance of power between Iran and the United States and Israel.
02:26This is really what we're talking about, because it seems to me there is a huge divide between the United
02:32States and Israel on the one hand and Iran, a huge divide in terms of how to open the Strait
02:37of Hormuz, on sanctions relief, on Iran's nuclear program, on multiple questions.
02:45The only light at the end of the tunnel is that American Vice President J.D. Vance sent a personal
02:53letter to a top national security leader in Iran, Mohsin Radai, and basically called on him to restart a new
03:03round of basically peace talks between Iran and the United States.
03:07And the Iranians basically view J.D. Vance's letter positively. They have more trust in J.D. Vance than President
03:15Trump, because J.D. Vance is one of the few American leaders who has opposed the war from day one.
03:22So the question is, the Qataris now are playing a major role, trying to really bring the Americans and the
03:28Iranians back to the negotiating tables.
03:31I doubt it very much, because as I've said before, the divide is so huge, and there is no trust
03:37whatsoever between the United States and Iran.
03:40One final point on the new Supreme Leader, Mushtabah Khamenei. Remember, for our own viewers, Mushtabah Khamenei was in the
03:48same place when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on the 28th of February.
03:54His father, his mother, his wife were killed, and his mindset is really very much scarred by that particular attack
04:02on Iran.
04:04Fawaz Jajas, London School of Economics. Thank you very much for your insights.
