00:00This year is on track to tie 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
00:04And next year looks likely to be even hotter.
00:07Climate publication Carbon Brief averages six major temperature records
00:11and gives 2026 a 67% chance of a new high.
00:15August was the warmest August on record in all six.
00:18Western Europe had its hottest summer on record, and so did the contiguous U.S.
00:23A big driver is El Nino, a Pacific pattern that releases ocean heat into the air.
00:28This one broke a key Pacific record in September and is expected to keep strengthening.
00:33Nearly all forecast models make it the strongest El Nino on record.
00:37But global temperatures lag the Pacific by about three months.
00:40So the biggest effect should land in 2027.
00:43Carbon Brief gives 2027 a 96% chance of becoming the warmest year on record.
00:49Temperature groups announced their 2026 results in January, and they may not agree.
00:54Disclosure. This video contains stock footage and content created or enhanced using AI-assisted tools.
