00:00Could the new year bring another general election? Andy Burnham's arrival in Downing
00:05Street has helped Labour recover ground in the polls, fuelling speculation that he might ask
00:11voters to back his own plans. He's ruled out an election in 2027, but would Labour's recovery
00:19make an early vote a winning move, or a gamble with its majority?
00:26Napoleon reputedly said when he was choosing his generals, there can be many things, but
00:30I want them to be lucky. Well, it seems that Andy Burnham has been lucky. The nearly man
00:36who tried to become leader a number of times while he was actually in Parliament, but then
00:40left, not necessarily in a half, but went to Manchester, apparently had success there.
00:46Although, of course, we know with the recent issues of Manchester City, and the deals were
00:51done, that might come back to haunted. But nonetheless, Andy Burnham, who's only been
00:55Prime Minister for just over 100 days, and of course, those 100 days, all we've seen
00:59as being said, what has he done? Well, nothing especially radical thus far, but everything
01:04he seems to have done has been reasonably popular, as opposed to, of course, his immediate predecessor,
01:09Keir Starmer, who was not lucky. Lucky enough, of course, to win this election after the dreadful
01:17period, under Rishi Sanak, who inherited a very poor legacy. But nonetheless, Andy Burnham,
01:22he's there. He's got the opinion polls up. He looks, certainly if we believe the opinion polls,
01:29as somebody who could win an election, which you couldn't have said about Keir Starmer.
01:33But of course, and we've also had the, coincidentally, that Nigel Farage, who was the man who was
01:39destined, at one point, to be the next Prime Minister.
01:41Part of Burnham's appeal is how he comes across. In YouGov research from September
01:472026, supporters described him as down-to-earth, likeable and different. But others called him
01:55out of his depth, and many remained unhappy with Labour itself. The recovery looks different
02:01depending on which poll you read. Freshwater Strategy polling for City AM put Labour on 30%. That's
02:09eight points ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives. YouGov put Labour on 26%,
02:15with the Conservatives just two points behind. Both polls were published in November 2026.
02:22Burnham is offering people practical help, including a £100 energy payment for millions of households
02:29in England. Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, argues Labour is postponing difficult decisions,
02:35and that higher taxes on banks could hurt economic growth. An early election would
02:42let Burnham seek voters backing for his own plans. But Labour would be risking its majority.
02:49National polls don't tell us exactly how many seats each party would win.
02:54There is a very good argument that his opinion polls are such that if he goes now, he wins an
03:00election,
03:00or does he wait? Now, of course, if he waits right to the end, that will take us well into
03:052029.
03:06And the view is that the financial situation is probably going to not get any better. Indeed, it
03:12may get a whole lot worse. And indeed, hidden in the weeds, if you like, of the budget in the
03:18OBR report,
03:19was the fact that there are commitments to reduce the debt by large cuts to public departments within government.
03:27So, of course, any government going into election, particularly a Labour government,
03:31trying to win an election with people being made or done in public services,
03:35which, let's face it, are not brilliant at the moment, and will get a whole lot worse if you reduce
03:40the staff.
03:40So, what does Andy Burnham do? Well, you know, coming back to the fact, he certainly seems to have a
03:46sort of a, something of a Midas touch. And I suspect that if he does go for election,
03:50he may go for sort of one sooner rather than later. Now, how soon could that be?
03:55Well, you know, we're coming up to Christmas. We did have an election back in 2019.
04:00That was the Boris Johnson, where, of course, he was completely sort of stymied by Parliament
04:04in terms of getting the Brexit deal through. And that was the sort of get Brexit done election.
04:08Could Andy Burnham be going for the sort of the 2026 December election?
04:14And this will be to get the Brexit undone, if you like, because, of course, he's raised that particular issue.
04:19And I suspect that won't sort of go away anytime soon. That's going to sort of bubble away.
04:23The only thing, of course, is he sort of judging the mood correctly?
04:27Now, of course, there's a whole issue of sort of reparations.
04:29And it seems to sort of put King Charles in a difficult situation.
04:33But nonetheless, in most cases, and with sort of very, very few exceptions,
04:39he seems to sort of be judging the mood correctly.
04:42And he's somebody who is able to, as I say, be in contact with the people.
04:46He has that sort of ability that the common touch, the sort of, if you like,
04:50the Heineken politician can reach the past. Others can't.
04:53Well, Andy Burnham has ruled out an election in 2027, saying his priority is governing.
04:59So for all the speculation, there's no announced plan to send voters back to the polls.
05:06Labour's challenge is to make its recovery last,
05:09while people judge whether a change of leader brings a change in their own lives.
05:14Labour start of Wales.
05:14Brexit
