- 2 days ago
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund joins Brock & Alex to break down both Los Angeles football teams, Matthew Stafford's arm soreness, the Kyren Williams vs. Blake Corum backfield split, and whether Sean McVay can scheme the Rams into the postseason.
Plus, Cynthia dives deep into Justin Herbert’s struggles under pressure, the Chargers' winless skid, and why Andy Reid's fourth-down play-calling cost the Chiefs against the Broncos.
Plus, Cynthia dives deep into Justin Herbert’s struggles under pressure, the Chargers' winless skid, and why Andy Reid's fourth-down play-calling cost the Chiefs against the Broncos.
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00:00We are so excited for our first guest of the day.
00:02She's one of the smartest minds in sports.
00:04She's the queen of NFL data science,
00:07creator and host of Numbers Games.
00:08You see her all over NFL Network and ESPN.
00:11My bestie, please welcome Cynthia Freeland.
00:18I'm sorry to keep you waiting
00:19as you were listening to us debate our hot or not.
00:22I love it.
00:23I love a good hot or not.
00:24It's fun to watch it like firsthand here.
00:27I get a little, you know, nervous.
00:29It makes me, making me nervous.
00:30You're like, who won?
00:31I don't even know if we got like the final answer.
00:33We'll get to that after you.
00:35So let's dive right into football
00:36because I know we have you on a, on a hard out here.
00:39Rams getting back to back wins for the first time this season.
00:41They also announced Miles Garrett is coming back,
00:44but then they're losing Jalen Watson for the season.
00:47Matthew Stafford is dealing with some, our soreness.
00:50Does this team have enough right now to make a run?
00:55Well, let's just take it one game at a time.
00:57And I think they certainly have enough against the commanders
01:00to do some damage.
01:01I think this is going to be a very interesting game
01:04for Pukunukua to really have a good chance
01:07to make the Washington defense, you know, regret playing them.
01:10But I'm looking at the, the, the fact that Washington blitzed
01:14the pants off of the Eagles last week,
01:17and there did bring a lot of pressure.
01:19I'm not going to pretend that this is an Eagles team.
01:21That's the same that we thought would be the same Eagles team
01:24from the beginning of the season, but it still was interesting
01:27to note how much pressure they got and the run game
01:30was more stout for them than it had been.
01:32So I expect this to be a big Pukunukua game.
01:35And again, one game at a time, I think health will determine
01:38how this team can really, what's the ceiling on this team.
01:44Really the only healthy room for the Rams right now
01:47is the running back room.
01:48What do you make or what do the numbers show regarding the splits
01:52between Kyron Williams and Blake Corum?
01:56You know, they're both effective and they both kind of do like
01:59similar and different things at the same time.
02:01So I'm looking at Blake Corum with fewer touches,
02:03but making the most of it with, you know, bigger yards per carry numbers.
02:08I think that's silly though, because some of it really is
02:11what they're being asked to do and what the situation happens to be.
02:14So I like both running backs being, again, they're similar enough
02:19in terms of how it looks pre-snap, but then they do different things
02:22after the snap.
02:23So that's actually a really good advantage against most defenses.
02:26This is an interesting defense.
02:29You know, the Dan Quinn defensive principles are pretty good
02:32against run concepts, but I trust Sean McVay to make, you know,
02:36is the running back playing tight end in this one?
02:39Is he lined up in the slot?
02:41Like what are the different tricks that you can pull?
02:44And what's the rabbit that comes out of the hat?
02:45I think the run game is right now their most reliable rabbit.
02:49Now moving to the team that they beat last week,
02:53Chargers now 0-7, losing coming off the bye.
02:56Justin Herbert just looked lost mentally.
03:00We heard Quentin Lake say he was throwing deli meat.
03:03If anything, what needs to happen against Houston this weekend
03:07to see either changes for the good,
03:10or is there something that needs to happen where personnel, trade deadline,
03:15like something needs to change that way for the Chargers?
03:19Well, first off, this is not the Texans defense that we were expecting ahead of the season at all.
03:25Sure, Will Anderson Jr. is great.
03:26Sure, Daniil Hunter, also great.
03:28But the back end of that defense, they've been giving up a bunch of deep plays.
03:33It's just not.
03:34So the good news is, is that the thing that Justin Herbert can do really, really well,
03:38which is throw under pressure.
03:39He actually threw more yards under pressure last week against the Rams than when he was from a clean pocket,
03:44and he threw his interception from a clean pocket, which is baffling, but that's what happened.
03:48So you're looking at what this defense really brings to the table,
03:51and it is something where Justin Herbert's strengths could be emphasized.
03:55I just think we need to see it look like it's not such a lopsided game, right?
04:01I don't necessarily think the score needs to be something within the number or whatever against the spread,
04:07you want to call it, but I think it needs to look like a team that's moving in the right
04:11direction.
04:12Sure, what I love to see at the trade deadline, some reinforcements.
04:15You know I'm always going to pick an O-lineman here for this one.
04:17I just really don't want Justin Herbert to be under this much pressure ever,
04:21but it doesn't mean that that trade exists in the marketplace.
04:24So you could bring in another wide receiver.
04:28What do you get?
04:28Brian Thomas Jr.
04:29But then here's the question.
04:30Is there enough time to throw the ball to him?
04:33So there's a lot that needs to – that could be up for consideration.
04:38I think Joe Hortiz has his work cut out for him figuring it all out.
04:41But I do think if you have a little bit better – just keep chopping the wood.
04:46Just get a little bit better.
04:47Don't make it look so – like you're in the fourth quarter.
04:51You're like, can we just – like, is there like a rule where we're just like not play this one?
04:54I don't want to see him get hurt anymore.
04:56That kind of thing.
04:56So, you know, as long as it doesn't look like that, I think we're moving in the right direction.
04:59And the Chargers defense is better than people give it credit for.
05:03That's not saying much because they're 0-7, but, you know, it's not – things aren't as terrible as they
05:08see.
05:10The Texans, the Jets, and the Lamarless Ravens are on the horizon for the Chargers.
05:17If the Chargers are going to get a win, is this not the best window to enter?
05:24They better get a win.
05:25I mean, I'm a Lions fan, and I know what 0-16 felt like.
05:29So, there we have it.
05:31It doesn't feel good.
05:33So, I think – I mean, realistically, I think we're in the window right now.
05:38I think, you know, obviously, given all of the defensive – you know, we've seen the Jets have a bunch
05:43of players on their defense that have been –
05:46you know, especially on that front that have not been playing.
05:48So, maybe that's a chance for it.
05:51I think it will depend on Houston's ability to – you know, this one feels harder.
05:57I feel like coming off of a bye, C.J. Stroud's been – you know, he's thrown far fewer interceptions
06:02than last season.
06:04I think last season he's thrown one now, and he's already thrown five at this point last season.
06:08So, if you're looking at his ability to hold on to the ball, it's a lot better this year than
06:13last year.
06:14So, I think the Jets might be the one I'd be circling.
06:16But, you know, we'll see.
06:20Let's talk about the Broncos win over the Chiefs.
06:23You were at that game covering it.
06:26They showed that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can be stopped.
06:29What was your biggest takeaway from that game?
06:33My biggest takeaway was the decision on fourth down was treacherous.
06:39So, it's a 54-yard field goal.
06:41That's the attempt.
06:43It's a – it's raining, by the way.
06:45It's that weird, cold, wet rain that's like – it just – it's not – it was like icky rain,
06:50not like –
06:51and it's just lightly sprinkling and it's fine.
06:53It wasn't like that.
06:54It was like thick rain or whatever, heavy rain.
06:56Yeah.
06:56So, it was weird.
06:59And so, you got that.
07:00So, do you punt and give them terrible field position and they haven't done anything
07:04and under pressure, Bo's passer rating is like, I don't know, 43, something like terrible for the game, right?
07:11Do you punt it?
07:12Do you try for the field goal to extend your 11-point win?
07:15Or do you try for on a fourth down?
07:18And I think of those three options, trying for the field goal was the worst option.
07:22And that's the one, unfortunately, that they did.
07:24Now, you give the ball back to the Broncos at such a favorable field position,
07:28considering they hadn't really moved the ball.
07:30And now you're asking for one missed tackle to become a difference maker.
07:34I mean, I know it sounds unsexy to be like, they should have punted then.
07:38But they probably – it would have been better to try for it on fourth down than it would have
07:41been –
07:42God forbid Andy Reid sneak too.
07:44Just so we're clear, what is the anti-sneak?
07:48Like, that whole game, I was like, one of these quarterbacks needs to sneak.
07:51Bo needs to sneak at the goal line.
07:53What are we doing?
07:54A designed rollout?
07:55Like, no, absolutely not.
07:56And that's what's happening.
07:57And so I was driving myself crazy about that.
08:00But the long story short is that the Chiefs, it was – I think it was that decision that I
08:04–
08:05at that point, you felt a palpable switch in what was going on.
08:09The sidelines looked different.
08:10The Broncos were like, oh, you're going to give us this little field.
08:13But, like, all we need is one Jonah Coleman run, and there you have it.
08:17Definitely some questionable decision-making from Andy Reid.
08:22A head coach that is making all the right decisions right now is Liam Cohen.
08:25The Jacksonville Jaguars take the field tonight.
08:28Are we comfortable saying that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a Super Bowl threat from the AFC?
08:32Whoo!
08:34100%.
08:35In large part because who's coming for them in their division?
08:40The Colts?
08:41Absolutely not.
08:42The Texans?
08:42Nope.
08:43The Titans?
08:44Nope.
08:44So, yes, making the playoffs is one of the main ways to make the Super Bowl.
08:49And I feel most comfortable saying that they're going to make the playoffs,
08:51especially the 85-point margin difference.
08:55That's crazy.
08:5785 points.
08:59That's huge.
09:00The point that it really shows is that both their offense and their defense are aligned.
09:04When you close your eyes and you think about the Bills, right,
09:07you think great offense, dicey defense, right?
09:11When you think about the Chiefs, you close your eyes, you're like, is the Kenneth Walker trick over already?
09:16When you think about the Broncos, you close your eyes and you're like, can Bo Nix complete a pass?
09:21Like, there are pieces from these other teams that really do seem to be hit, like, great and show upside
09:28potential.
09:29But, I mean, Joe Burrow even.
09:31Like, the Bengals, like, the first half, they decide never to show up.
09:34And then in the second half, they're requiring him to score six touchdowns.
09:38Like, it's crazy.
09:40So, I think right now, the Jags are the most complete team in the AFC, which is wild to say.
09:45But I think on both sides, they're the most complete team.
09:48That is wild to say.
09:49And looking at that Monday night football game, now that Carson Wentz is going to be stepping up for the
09:54Vikings as a starting QB,
09:55what is your model telling you about Bills and Vikings?
09:59Well, Wentz introduces a lot more volatility.
10:02I think if you're a Justin Jefferson fantasy manager, then you're going to be happy because Wentz will get the
10:08ball out.
10:08Now, Kyler Murray has just – he did have a little bit more of a downfield presence,
10:13but we're going to asterisk that against the Lions secondary being not there.
10:18Do they – I mean, they've got two good safeties, but one of them had – anyways, they were –
10:23the Lions don't have a good secondary.
10:25But I'm looking at – Carson Wentz, it's more volatility both ways, though.
10:29Like, he could throw for a lot of yards and a bunch of touchdowns, or he could have a bunch
10:34of picks.
10:35It's not – it's like – it's roulette.
10:37You're playing roulette with Carson Wentz compared to Kyler Murray, who's more reliable,
10:41but less upside from the standpoint of, like, what we've been able to see them pull off.
10:46And I think they've got to be – if they're going to do a 90% blitz rate again, that
10:51is their blitz rate last game, 90%.
10:52It was a high than next-gen stats era after they just said it the week before at a 73
10:59% blitz rate.
10:59You're going to try to blitz Josh Allen like that, he's going to run all over you.
11:05But that's just what's going to happen.
11:06So that's my read on that is I'm very curious to see if the – I love Brian Flores.
11:12We went to college together.
11:13We get it.
11:13But that is a big trick, and eventually the trick stops working.
11:19Cynthia, we appreciate you every single week.
11:21We love you.
11:22Thank you for your time.
11:22I know you've got to get going.
11:24Thank you so much.
11:25Make sure –