00:00Welcome back to Against the Cage. It is officially UFC 333 Fight Week. We're in the main event. Featherweight champion
00:06Alexander Volkanovsky aims to defend his title against undefeated challenger Movsar Ivloyev.
00:12My name is Jake Arie. I'm joined here by my esteemed co-hosts Scott Fontana and Eric Richter, who will
00:17be breaking down this main event for us in the style of a classroom debate.
00:22Scott will be making his case for the champion while Eric will be taking the side of the challenger. We'll
00:28be going through the striking and grappling before they each give one more factor of their choosing and finally give
00:34us a prediction of how the fight will go.
00:36So without further ado, let's get to debating. Starting off with everyone's favorite, the striking. Scott, I'll hand it to
00:42you first. What is your case for the striking of Volkanovsky?
00:46Look, Volk knows how to turn up the volume on anyone. Out of 18 fights in the UFC, he has
00:51outstruck his opponents 17 times, including all three fights against MMA Volume King Max Holloway.
00:57You are not going to outland the champ. He's also got a great track record of mixing up his offense
01:01with the low kicks particularly potent.
01:04On the other side, you've got Ivloyev, who in 10 UFC fights has landed just 470 strikes from distance without
01:10a single knockdown.
01:11He's never stopped a fighter in the UFC. He's not even secured a KO or a TKO as a featherweight.
01:16All three of his finishes that way came by a bantamweight.
01:18Volk, by the way, six official knockdowns in the UFC, and that includes the only one against Issam Mahachev in
01:24the last 11 years.
01:25That's why when I spoke to Volk ahead of this fight, he conceded some truth when knowing that all of
01:30this about Ivloyev, it emboldens him to be more aggressive.
01:33The stand-up is the Aussie's world. Ivloyev has shown throughout his career a willingness to strike, especially a stubborn
01:39refusal to wrestle in the first three rounds against Leroy Murphy earlier this year.
01:42That would be a massive mistake this time.
01:46Eric, how about you? What do you got for Ivloyev for the striker?
01:48Totally fair. Alexander Volkanovski might be the best striker in featherweight history.
01:52It's he and Max Holloway, as you said.
01:54Now, I see your situation, and I'll raise you a situation.
01:57I'm sorry, Ivloyev does have the age advantage.
01:59He is 32 years of age. He has the ability to wrestle and strike, maybe keep Volkanovski, maybe on his
02:05back foot a little bit.
02:06I'd like to see that.
02:08Movistar Ivloyev absorbs just 2.8 significant strikes per minute, which is far better than Volkanovski, who's 3.31.
02:16So the defense is there. I think that the striking helps him a little bit.
02:20The wrestling helps him a little bit with the striking, keep their opponents on their back foot rather than coming
02:26forward.
02:27Easier said than done. Volkanovski, about 25 of his strikes are leg kicks.
02:31I'm interested to see if Movistar Ivloyev is able to counter that.
02:35Usually kicks feed themselves into wrestling and feed themselves into takedowns.
02:38We haven't really seen Volkanovski go against a significant wrestler.
02:41Obviously, we saw him against Islam Mahachev. He looked really good in that first fight.
02:45Not so much in the second one.
02:46We will see. The striking is not the advantage I'm looking for Ivloyev to really pull.
02:51If Ivloyev were to win, we're looking a different direction.
02:55Anything to say to that?
02:56I just feel like the lack of power on Ivloyev's part is really going to be a massive disadvantage for
03:02him here
03:02because it will, again, allow Volkanovski to really press with that offense.
03:07He'll be able to turn it up in a way that maybe he wasn't able to do
03:10or would have had a harder time doing against someone like an Islam Mahachev
03:13or even an Ilya Toporia.
03:16Ivloyev, 10-0 in the UFC, zero knockdowns.
03:20He has no power.
03:21I did say that.
03:23Well, let's get to some of the grappling.
03:25Eric, maybe this is more in the wheelhouse of your guy.
03:27What would you say for the grappling of Movsar Ivloyev?
03:31Yeah, 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes for my guy Movsar Ivloyev.
03:36That is the path to victory here.
03:38As I had mentioned, a lot of leg kicks from Alexander Volkanovski who really likes to download data.
03:43He is in a spot where if he's able to maybe catch a couple kicks, stay offensive on the wrestling,
03:51you have a good opportunity for Ivloyev to get some takedowns.
03:55Like I said, 53% accuracy as well on his takedowns.
03:59So he's shooting, he's getting takedowns.
04:01Now Volkanovski stuffed 69% of his takedowns thrown at him.
04:04But we're getting to the edge of the age curve here.
04:07Didn't allow two to Diego Lopez, two credited.
04:10I believe that those are just double leg takedowns by Diego Lopez.
04:13And Volkanovski went for a submission, which didn't land.
04:16However, Movsar Ivloyev has landed multiple takedowns in each of his last, you know, seven, eight fights.
04:25Like, he's a high-level pressure wrestler.
04:28And like I said, 69% takedown defense is solid.
04:31It's not amazing.
04:32A lot of those came against Islam Ahachev.
04:34But I think that Ivloyev, at 32 years old, pushing for wrestling the entire fight,
04:41that's really going to be his path to victory.
04:44And, you know, look, Volkanovski's getting older.
04:46I think that as we get into the late rounds, Ivloyev could wear on him a little bit.
04:50That's the game plan, at least.
04:53Scott, what about the wrestling for Volk?
04:56You know, look, I don't want to beat around the bush here.
04:59State in the obvious, Ivloyev has the better wrestling.
05:01He's displayed that. I won't deny that.
05:03Here's the question, though.
05:04Is Ivloyev a better wrestler against 145-pound Volkanovski than Mahachev was against 155-pound Volk?
05:11And I don't think so.
05:12Over 28 minutes across two fights, Islam was only 4 of 10 on takedowns with under 8 minutes of control
05:18time.
05:19If Ivloyev can't keep this fight down for at least half the time, he's not going to win.
05:23And in the UFC career of him, he's got, as far as control time, only about a third of his
05:29in-cage time.
05:30So he'd have to outdo not only his own trends, but also beat an all-time great against an all
05:36-time great in this facet.
05:38There's virtually just no threat of an Ivloyev finish on the mat either.
05:42He's got one win by a submission in the last decade.
05:44Once again, that was at 135 pounds.
05:47He's not got any...
05:49No finishes at 145 pounds.
05:50Volk has shown superhuman submission defense at the championship level before.
05:55I think we all remember that insane sequence against submission ace Brian Ortega.
05:59He escaped first a mounted guillotine and then a triangle choke.
06:02So the champ, look, he's a 5'6 powerhouse.
06:05He told me he's going to dare Ivloyev to try and take him down, to try and hold him down.
06:09And with Alex, I just don't think it's empty words.
06:13Eric, any response to that before we move on?
06:16It's careful what you wish for if I was Alexander Vokonovsky.
06:19I think that he should be, like, he's going to win the striking exchanges, like, for sure.
06:24You know, to be down on the ground at any point, it's just going to sap your gas tank.
06:29I'm interested to see what kind of, how he looks in rounds four or five.
06:33You know, obviously he's got legendary cardio, but we're going to get to it.
06:36The age curve is coming.
06:38It's coming quickly.
06:38Well, Eric, let's get to it.
06:40We've each got one more factor for you guys.
06:43What is your factor going into this fight?
06:46What's right, Ivloyev is undefeated.
06:48What's right, Ivloyev is 32 years of age.
06:50Alexander Vokonovsky is such an outlier.
06:52Like, I can't, like, put this into perspective better than this.
06:55UFC featherweights age 38 or older are combined 11 and 20 from between the age of 38 and later.
07:02If you take Cub Swanson out of that, by the way, it's way worse.
07:06It's like 7 and 20, 7 and 19, excuse me, 7 and 19 if you take Cub Swanson out of
07:11the equation.
07:12Alexander Vokonovsky is such an outlier in so many ways.
07:16At some point here, it has to end.
07:19Mozart Ivloyev should be the better athlete with better cardio.
07:23He's just so much younger.
07:25And, you know, he's got the higher, I think he should have the higher motor in this fight.
07:30You know, like we had talked about this last time, I didn't believe that Ian Gary had a higher motor
07:34than Islam Mahachev.
07:35I just thought that he was, you know, maybe a little bit bigger and stuff.
07:38Mozart Ivloyev should be the opposite.
07:40I think that Alexander Vokonovsky is, you know, definitely the smarter fighter.
07:45This is a really just against the age curve bet.
07:49Mozart Ivloyev should be able to score some takedowns.
07:53He struck pretty well against Arnold Allen.
07:55He outstruck Arnold Allen in that fight as well when they fought.
07:58So I think that Mozart Ivloyev, you know, age curve wise, you have to fade 38 years old at this
08:05weight class.
08:06I have to fade it.
08:06I can't ignore it.
08:08Scott, what is your factor for Volkanovsky?
08:12Well, just to answer Eric really quick, I would just like to point out that Diego Lopez, who he's now
08:16fought twice in a row, is younger than Ivloyev.
08:20So I don't think that really that was much of a problem against him.
08:22I don't know how much more he aged in, you know, six months or whatever.
08:25Diego Lopez has eight losses.
08:29And one of them is to Ivloyev, but that was a competitive fight for the record.
08:32And that was on short notice, like two days notice.
08:34But anyway, my third thing, let's get to this.
08:37It's fight IQ.
08:38Volk has elite fight IQ routinely dictating where the fight goes and ensuring it's where he has the greatest advantage.
08:45That's in contrast to Ivloyev, who in his last fight, bizarrely chose not to wrestle at all until the fourth
08:51round.
08:51Happy to eat cap, but would have been essentially a three round split decision lead to that point on the
08:57scorecards.
08:57A lot of speculation as to why he did that, you know, makes us wonder if he was just trying
09:01to be entertaining.
09:02Fighting that way against his nature, I think would be the wrong call against Volk.
09:06But he just might, given the current UFC climate, the pressures on these fighters to entertain now.
09:10I don't know.
09:11Volk, by the way, doesn't have to worry about that at all because he's a man with five fight of
09:15the nights on his resume.
09:17And also a consensus 2023 fight of the year against Matachev in that first fight.
09:21Volk is also incredibly clean with his technique.
09:24He's shown great control of his weapons without committing dumb or even sneaky fouls.
09:28Meanwhile, you've got Ivloyev, who has lost two points in two of his 10 UFC fights, even against Laurel Murphy
09:35earlier this year.
09:36That's crazy considering how infrequently points get taken in high level MMA.
09:39So he's doing something wrong here, right?
09:41It's not necessarily that he's dirty.
09:43I think he's more reckless.
09:45Losing a point in this fight, especially, would be devastating for a fighter who only ever wins in the UFC
09:50on the scorecards.
09:52Eric, any response to that before we get to predictions?
09:56I just think that most are you below is a step up in competition from where Diego Lopez was the
10:00last two times.
10:01And obviously, Ilya Toporia is a beast, and so does Matachev.
10:06But compared to the rest of featherweight, I think that most are you below is a step up in competition
10:10with better cardio.
10:11And eventually, eventually Volkanovski has to call it, right?
10:15I mean, he has to.
10:17He's 38.
10:18Well, Scott, briefly, let's give our predictions.
10:21How do you see this fight going?
10:24Eric thinks he's due.
10:25Are you saying he's due?
10:26I don't think he's due.
10:27I think Volk wins a competitive but clear striking fuel decision.
10:30He's keeping the belt.
10:32And Eric, what is your brief prediction for how this fight will go?
10:35Going opposite.
10:36Most are you below it by decision.
10:38You get plus 140 on Fandor right now.
10:40And new, by the way.
10:42All righty.
10:43Well, there you have it, ladies and gentlemen, watching back home.
10:46Let us know what you think.
10:48Who won this debate?
10:49That's what we really want to know.
10:50But either way, enjoy the fights this weekend, and we will see you on the next one.
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