It is being reported in the Spanish media that Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont now says he is not going to Madrid on Thursday to explain his position on independence from Spain.
He had been due to appear before the Senate.
An appearance at a Senate debate could pit Puigdemont face-to-face with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is vehemently opposed to independence for Catalonia.
ÚLTIMA HORA | La Generalitat confirma que el president Puigdemont no irá ni mañana ni pasado al Senado https://t.co/zJuA60Jzd8— EL PAÍS (@el_pais) 25 octobre 2017
Why is this significant?
Because of the timing. Puigdemont’s visit before the Senate suggests he is now unlikely to formally declare independence or call a snap regional election on Thursday.
He could still do this on Friday before the Senate meets to strip him of his powers and impose direct rule from Madrid.
Catalonia said on Monday it was confident its officials, including the police, would defy attempts by Madrid to enforce direct rule.
A rock and a hard place
Whether he travels to Madrid or not, Puigdemont is unlikely to make much headway against the Spanish government. It vehemently opposes full independence and is using all its legal and political power to stop it.
On Friday, the Senate is due to strip him of his powers and impose direct rule.
A snap election
A senior Catalan politician says separatist leaders may call a snap election to try to break the deadlock. The Catalan parliament meets on Thursday and Friday.
Some Spanish political and business leaders, along with most Catalan newspapers, have urged Puigdemont to call a regional election before he is stripped of his authority.
They say direct rule from Madrid would be a humiliation for Catalonia and pose a serious risk of civil unrest.
Calling an election could either strengthen Puigdemont’s mandate if pro-independence parties won, or allow him a graceful exit if they did not.
An opinion poll published by the El Periodico newspaper on Sunday showed a snap election would probably have results similar to the last ballot in 2015, when a coalition of pro-indepence parties formed a minority government.
A tense situation
The political crisis, Spain’s worst since democracy was restored four decades ago, has become increasingly fraught at the prospect of civil disobedience and even confrontation if Madrid goes ahead with taking direct control of Catalonia in the next few days.
The conflict has caused deep resentment elsewhere in Spain, dented the prosperous region’s economy and worried other European leaders who see it as fanning separatist sentiment elsewhere on the continent.
Homage to Catalonia
Secessionists say an independence referendum on October 1 – which attracted a 43% turnout but was mostly boycotted by those Catalans who want to remain in Spain – has given them a mandate for statehood.
The Madrid government declared the referendum illegal and has spurned Puigdemont’s calls for dialogue. It has instead opted to taken control of the region, which now has a large measure of autonomy.
Restoring legality in Catalonia is Spanish government priority: PM Rajoy https://t.co/uadv7Qikni pic.twitter.com/FAEcxYd4v8— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) 25 octobre 2017
The analyst’s view
Puigdemont is caught between radicals and moderates in the Catalan establishment, according to Antonio Barroso of Teneo Intelligence.
Radical elements want him to make the Catalan parliament declare independence unilaterally on Thursday or Friday.
This would provoke a tough government reaction, playing into their hands, he said.
More moderate voices are saying that, if he calls an early election, he could stop the imposition of direct rule.
Puigdemont is likely to repeat his call for dialogue between the Catalan authorities and Madrid and remain ambiguous on his next steps, Barroso added.
“Both sides are engaged in a game to tag each other with the blame for what happens next,” he ended.
On Social
What to know the next ten years? Study closely how the West deals with a conflict within itself. Study Catalonia. So far, the response to stress is a collapse in norms.— Julian Assange (@JulianAssange) 25 octobre 2017
El único diálogo que Puigdemont propuso fueron los términos y plazos de la independencia. Ni lo acepté, ni lo voy a aceptar #SesióndeControl pic.twitter.com/SkLmWQ6BRV— Mariano Rajoy Brey (@marianorajoy) 25 octobre 2017
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy says the only dialogue Carles Puigdemont proposes is about independence and he (Rajoy) cannot accept that.
