00:00 Let's bring in our Russia analyst, Konstantin Egert,
00:02 who joins us from Kiev.
00:04 Kim Jong-un is now in Russia to meet with President Putin.
00:08 What does Russia want from North Korea?
00:11 - Well, Ben, no one knows because all the communiques
00:16 issued by the Kremlin are coached
00:18 in a very sort of watery and vague language.
00:22 We don't even know where exactly
00:23 Putin will be meeting Mr. Kim.
00:26 However, the consensus among experts
00:28 is that Russia will be seeking to get millions,
00:32 if hundreds of thousands, if not millions,
00:35 of artillery shells and other munitions,
00:38 mostly made according to the Soviet designs,
00:42 which North Korea stocks.
00:44 And it seems that the Kremlin wants to replenish
00:49 its stocks of munitions in order to continue
00:51 its assault on Ukraine.
00:53 It's not going to, it seems like it's not going to be
00:55 any kind of high-tech weaponry.
00:58 North Korea does not possess a lot of that.
01:01 But it seems like we're talking about mostly artillery.
01:04 The suspicion is that they may also talk about
01:07 North Korean models of drones,
01:10 but this is not really, we don't really know.
01:15 - Okay, how much of a difference do you reckon
01:18 this munition would make in Russia's efforts
01:21 to hit Ukraine and continue this invasion?
01:26 - Well, look, Ben, if Vladimir Putin
01:32 has to look towards Kim Jong-un for supplies,
01:35 it means that the situation at the front
01:38 is not really great and that the Russian factories
01:42 seem not to be able to supply the munitions
01:46 to the Russian army assaulting Ukraine.
01:49 So I think it will make at least some kind of difference
01:54 because every little bit helps, to put it like that.
01:58 It's another question, what kind of thing
02:00 the North Koreans would like to get from the Russians?
02:05 And of course, there's another thing.
02:08 Behind all that is a big white elephant in the room,
02:12 which is China, the main supplier,
02:14 the main sort of prop of the North Korean regime.
02:18 And question among kind of observers is
02:21 whether China will look really kindly on North Korea
02:26 helping Russia in this war in such a way,
02:29 whether, I mean, the responsibility
02:31 will not eventually land on China's shoulders.
02:34 - There's an international ban, of course,
02:36 on arms trades with North Korea.
02:39 That hasn't stopped Russia before,
02:42 but if it does strike another deal,
02:46 that would be breaching the agreement.
02:47 It would be it again, wouldn't it?
02:48 And would Russia face more sanctions and North Korea too?
02:52 - I think that the United States,
02:56 the Pentagon and the State Department,
02:59 the National Security Council
03:00 already voiced their concern about it
03:02 and told the Russians and the North Koreans that,
03:05 yes, that means more sanctions.
03:07 I think that in the current circumstances,
03:10 Putin is not particularly worried by that.
03:12 He needs to continue the war.
03:13 He needs to continue his assault on Ukraine.
03:16 And I suppose that in the current climate,
03:19 this doesn't matter.
03:20 But again, whether it matters for China,
03:22 we'll see whether it will try, for example,
03:24 to restrain its North Korean clients.
03:27 But we will not learn about it now.
03:30 For now, my proposal, if you wish,
03:33 my suspicion is that Putin and Kim
03:36 will strike a deal on the weaponry and on the munitions.
03:40 And in exchange, North Korea will get
03:42 some kind of Russian military technologies,
03:44 probably energy, probably credits
03:47 that it needs very badly all the time.
03:50 - Konstantin, tell us a bit more about
03:52 China's role in all of this
03:55 and how it could complicate the situation
03:58 for both Russia or North Korea.
04:01 - Well, without Chinese help,
04:05 North Korean regime would not have survived.
04:09 That is the consensus of most Korea watchers.
04:12 And in this respect, China is also involved
04:16 in this very, very delicate game
04:20 with trying to support Russia in its war against Ukraine
04:23 without really spoiling relations with the West.
04:26 We remember that a few months ago,
04:28 the Chinese tried to mediate between Moscow and Kiev.
04:31 So basically turning away from a deal
04:36 that is exacerbating the war
04:38 and that is raising tensions on the Korean peninsula
04:42 does not make China look good in the eyes of the West,
04:45 does not make it look good,
04:48 does not make it look as a so-called
04:50 responsible international stakeholder.
04:52 Whether this is a concern in Beijing,
04:54 we'll learn very soon, I'm sure,
04:56 especially if the deal between Moscow
04:59 and Pyongyang goes through.
05:01 - You heard it from Russia analyst, Konstantin Egert.
05:04 Thank you very much.
05:05 - Thank you, Ben.
