00:00 China is one of several countries that have condemned the United States for
00:03 rejecting a ceasefire vote at the UN Security Council.
00:07 Now for more of this let's talk to Colin Clark, he's director of research at the
00:10 Suphan Group, a private security and intelligence firm. Colin, thanks very much
00:15 indeed for joining us. First of all, you know, the US has traditionally provided
00:19 top cover for Israel. For the last
00:23 70, 80 years it's guaranteed Israel's existence but it's getting
00:27 harder for the White House to do that, isn't it?
00:30 Well, it is, domestically and so particularly among the younger
00:34 generation or what we call Gen Z, which according to polling data sides
00:40 overwhelmingly with the Palestinians against the Israelis. So that's a big
00:44 challenge for the Biden administration, especially in an election year. And I
00:48 think globally we also see large segments of the world, the global south
00:53 writ large if you look at the UN votes, you know, calling for a ceasefire as well.
00:57 So the US is kind of bucking global public opinion as it were.
01:01 Well it is, it's not often we hear the Chinese foreign ministry for example
01:04 issue some sort of condemnation about issues in the Middle East. So certainly
01:08 things are, the tempo is rising, isn't it? Within the administration then, the
01:13 Pentagon has very close links with Israel, of course, because of all the
01:17 military exchange that goes on between. The State Department has plenty of
01:21 diplomatic contact, very frustrating talks one imagines going on between
01:26 State Department and Tel Aviv as well as the White House. Can Joe Biden manage
01:31 this kind of split that we imagine he must have in his administration?
01:36 Well, that's, you know, one of the most important questions that the
01:39 president's facing. And I think there's a lot of pressure on the
01:42 administration and frankly, the Netanyahu government doesn't really
01:47 seem to be swayed significantly by the pressure that the United States is
01:51 attempting to administer. So, you know, from the start, basically from
01:56 October 8th, the Israelis have lacked a military campaign that's been
02:01 connected or married to some kind of political vision, at least one that's
02:07 realistic. And so it's a tough place for the Biden administration because
02:11 they're unable to move the needle at all with Netanyahu. They're being
02:14 blamed for failing at home. And there's a lot at stake because this is just
02:17 one of several issues, the border domestically with Mexico and the war
02:22 in Ukraine that the administration is attempting to juggle.
02:25 We understand, of course, that the White House is trying to put out
02:28 various fires on different fronts. What about this, the military venture
02:33 that's going on in Gaza? Presumably there's a huge amount of contact
02:37 between American military leaders and IDF leaders in Israel. The IDF seems
02:44 determined to push on, perhaps with a ground attack into Rafa. Presumably
02:49 there's advice coming to the contrary from the United States. Do you think
02:52 those relations might be getting strained as well?
02:54 I think from a military to military perspective, it's largely leaving
03:00 policy aside, right? That's the domain of the White House, of the
03:04 executive branch. But certainly, as we're watching urban warfare, as we're
03:09 watching Israel and the IDF potentially move to a counterinsurgency
03:13 strategy, it's going to become more difficult for the U.S. to lend overt
03:18 support, especially if the forthcoming offensive in Rafa amounts to
03:23 significant civilian casualties, as many expect, as I expect. I recently
03:28 penned an essay in Foreign Affairs warning against Israeli mission creep
03:33 in Gaza. So we'll have to see. I think the Netanyahu government's pretty
03:40 intent on moving forward with this and likely will do so in the coming weeks.
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