00:00So let's just talk about numbers here for a second because Kelly's from
00:05Arizona that has 11 electoral votes, Shapiro's from Pennsylvania that has 19
00:11electoral votes, and Walsh's from Minnesota that's 10. So who do you think
00:16or which state rather matters the most in this election? Yeah well I mean I was
00:24terrible at math but I definitely can tell you that 19 is more than 11 or 10. I
00:28feel very safe in acknowledging that. So you always want to go to states that
00:35count more right? 19 electoral votes is still a very big haul of electoral
00:41votes and that's why I tend to think Josh Shapiro is the pick. You know I
00:45think we could argue that there are there are past 270 electoral votes for
00:50Kamala Harris that don't include her winning Pennsylvania but man there
00:54aren't that many and I think outside of her inner circle I'm not sure you could
00:57convince anyone that they are plausible that she could make. Winning
01:01Pennsylvania to me seems like a thing that has to happen for her to have a
01:07chance to win. It's not a guarantee that she'll win but I think it's the most
01:11important state in the country for her bar none. Every strategist, pollster,
01:16commentator that I've talked to have said historically VP picks don't matter
01:21they can only hurt not really help. A, is it different this time because of the
01:27historic nature of this election and B, what is the number one goal of Harris's
01:32VP pick? So let me do let me answer your question the second question first. I
01:38think the number one goal of any VP pick is do no harm. You don't you don't
01:43want to make things worse when you're adding someone. Plus it's her only big
01:48decision that she gets to make as a candidate for president right? This is
01:52she can talk about all the policy she believes and she can talk about the
01:55things she's done as VP but as the presidential nominee you really only
01:58get to make one big choice and it's this. So you want ultimately it to not be a
02:03problem. Do I think the VP pick could matter? I would say it matters both good
02:10and bad at the margins. I think the truth of the matter is most people vote for
02:15the top of the ticket. I always say if you're a big-time recruit for example in
02:19college basketball if you go to the program and you really like the assistant
02:24coach but you hate the head coach you're probably not gonna go there right?
02:29So it can be additive if you like the assistant and you like the head coach
02:33maybe that makes you a little bit more likely to go to that school. That's how I
02:37think of VP picks. They're the assistant coach. You're probably not making your
02:42final decision based on that but could it matter at the margin? I do think it
02:47could particularly when we're talking about a race in Pennsylvania that's you
02:52know it's a one-point race it's a two-point race depending on what polls
02:55you see but it's going to be very close. I don't think that if Kamala Harris
03:00picks Josh Shapiro all of a sudden she wins Pennsylvania 60 to 40 right? That's
03:03not going to happen. But if it's a 50-48 race could he make a point difference?
03:10Sure he's a popular governor of the state. He was the Attorney General prior.
03:14He's been elected three times successfully in Pennsylvania. He's had 58,
03:1859, 60 percent job approval including four in ten Republicans at least back in
03:23May who say they approve of the job he's doing. So yeah I think it could make a
03:26difference at the margin. That's the key.
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