00:00Jose Manuel Barroso was President of the European Commission from 2004 to 2014.
00:13For the Europe Conversation, he tells me why he believes Crimea will never be returned
00:18to Ukraine, but that the West must support Kiev for as long as it takes.
00:22He's also head of the International Vaccine Alliance, where he describes as criminal those
00:27spreading disinformation and lies about vaccines.
00:33So President Barroso, it's 10 years since you left as President of the European Commission
00:37and a lot has happened.
00:38I mean, even when you started, it was the beginning of enlargement where we went from
00:4215 countries to 25, then to 28 and now 27.
00:46Yes.
00:47So it's in fact 20 years before, after my first commission.
00:52It was this month precisely, 20 years ago, and a lot is happening.
00:56But I think it's important also to keep in mind that there is continuity, that the European
01:03Institution, par excellence, is the European Commission.
01:08And as one of the founding fathers of the European Union said, the European Community,
01:13Jean Monnet, he said, nothing happens without men.
01:17Now we should say, nothing happens without people.
01:19So nothing happens without men, nothing lasts without institutions, and the European Commission
01:24is a great institution.
01:26Well, look, let's go back to 2014, or even further, I think we'd all like to go back
01:30to those days, and look at what could have been done differently, or maybe not done at
01:34all.
01:35But let's say where we are with Ukraine and Putin.
01:38In 2008 we had the invasion of Georgia, 2014 was obviously Crimea, we also had the assassination
01:44of Litvinenko in the UK and so on.
01:46And the Baltics were constantly saying to the EU, we need to be much stronger when it
01:52comes to Putin, and stop being so naive when it comes to Russia, having interdependence
01:57when it comes to oil and gas.
01:58I mean, what's your assessment of that time now, when you look back, at the warnings you
02:03were given, what was going on?
02:06I think I always like to put Ecclesiastes, the Old Testament of the Bible.
02:12There is a time for everything.
02:15I think it was, there was some time where we tried with the best of our efforts to have
02:20a constructive relationship with Russia, and we've tried, but Russia has been changing
02:26progressively.
02:27Now, OK, some were more keen to understand Russia, congratulations.
02:34By the way, also to be honest, some of them, they did not prepare for what happened afterwards,
02:40and they were not always right on some of their positions.
02:44Having said that, I think now it's obvious.
02:48We had the invasion, the full invasion of Ukraine.
02:52What I hope is now that countries from the north, from the south, from the center, from
02:58the periphery, from the east, from the west, understand that what is at stake is in fact
03:03for all Europe, and in fact not only for all Europe, for the world.
03:06What we have now is a global conflict, it's not a European conflict, I mean, North Korean
03:11military are in Europe now, in one country, invading or fighting against a European country
03:17as well.
03:18This is very serious.
03:20So we need to act together.
03:22But what do you think of the period, I suppose, I mean, do you think that the warnings weren't
03:28taken seriously?
03:29Was there a belief that in 2014 maybe we shouldn't escalate by applying such extreme sanctions
03:36against Russia for Crimea?
03:37You know, like, what was the thinking?
03:39I can tell you what was the thinking, because I was in that meeting.
03:42What happened was that facing the invasion of Crimea, there were three possibilities.
03:49One is to go direct war against Russia.
03:52Nobody wants a war against Russia, still today.
03:56Another thing was to make a kind of a diplomatic communique, a regretting, almost zero.
04:04And there was a middle way, a middle way was sanctions.
04:06And that's what we approved.
04:09And with the strong support from Germany, France, UK, Merkel, Hollande, Cameron.
04:16But already then, with some voices against sanctions, the first one was in fact Viktor
04:20Orban.
04:21Orban said, if, I don't agree with sanctions, because there will be counter-sanctions, it
04:27will be negative for us, but if there is a consensus, I will not oppose it.
04:31But others, including the Netherlands, which is quite insidious.
04:36And also Malta, Cyprus, Greece and Slovakia, were, let's say, with some level of ambiguity.
04:45And the Baltics were for them, I assume.
04:46The Baltics were for them.
04:48But France and Germany were very strongly for them.
04:51And UK.
04:52The problem was which kind of sanctions, because then they could not agree, and they asked
04:57the Commission to design the sanctions.
05:00And then, of course, each country said sanctions, but one country, you can imagine which country
05:05said, not financial sanctions, not financial services.
05:08As I said, not diamonds, not ships, not agriculture, not farming.
05:14Because we had the discussion, yeah.
05:17That's why at the end of the day, the sanction package was relatively minimalist compared
05:22to what happened afterwards.
05:23So what should have been, if you went back to that time now, what should have been done?
05:27Look, we have to see what was possible at that time.
05:30The reality is that the governments were not ready to go further.
05:34That is the reality.
05:35The Commission will be ready to go further.
05:37But the governments were not ready to go further because of their own interests and probably
05:42because they thought, and that's interesting, that what I'm going to say now, it's delicate,
05:47but I'm going to say it.
05:49Because at least in the back of our minds, or the minds of the European governments,
05:53was that Crimea is a special case.
05:58That's why today, honestly, nobody believes that Ukraine is going to get back Crimea.
06:05That's the reality.
06:06OK, we are trying to support Ukraine, but also at the same time trying to see what could
06:11be a possible solution.
06:14So this is the problem.
06:15It was an extremely difficult situation.
06:18But I don't think at that moment it was possible to conceive a much stronger position, because
06:25in fact the governments were not ready for it.
06:29Everything gets its time.
06:31So let's not use that as a pretext not to do now what we should do.
06:35What should we do now?
06:36I mean, to support Ukraine.
06:37I have no doubts about it.
06:39We should support Ukraine.
06:42And whatever happens with our American friends, we should support Ukraine.
06:46Because if not, it's not only going to be a tragedy for Ukraine, it's a very important
06:51country, but it's a tragedy for Europe.
06:54And it's going to be the best possible offer we give to the movement against democracy,
07:02against international law, against also our own values.
07:06If Russia, and others that are now supporting Russia, continue to say all over the world,
07:11including in the so-called global South, that Europe and the West, they are gone, they are
07:15decadent, they no longer count, democracy is a completely corrupt ideology, we have
07:22to do it another way.
07:23I mean, what is at stake in Ukraine is a fundamental issue for all the world, the so-called
07:28global South is looking.
07:30Just before I let you go, enlargement, do you think Ukraine will be a member of the
07:33European Union by 2030, as Charles Michel has said?
07:36I never commit to dates, in fact, why?
07:39Because they are, they can be frustrating if you don't achieve them.
07:43But I hope and I expect Ukraine one day to be a member of the European Union.
07:48But it's important for Ukraine's future security, so it would have to happen sooner rather than
07:52later, right?
07:53Yes, ideally, yes.
07:54Do you think the EU is prepared?
07:55There is a variable here we do not control.
07:58When the war is over, we don't know.
08:00And secondly, afterwards, both the European Union and Ukraine itself should be ready for
08:05becoming a member, which has some criteria that should be respected.
08:09That's why I think it's not prudent.
08:11I understand that the idea of setting a date is an inspirational date, let's put it like
08:15that.
08:16But we cannot commit to a date.
08:17Yes, but we should, meanwhile, do everything to help Ukraine to become a member.
08:23I don't believe that Putin will, I know Putin, Putin is the leader outside the European Union
08:30that I met the most during my 10 years in office.
08:33I met him 25 times.
08:35I know what he feels.
08:37And now, when they have hundreds of thousands of young Russians being killed already now,
08:45there are 1,200 casualties per day, Russian casualties, Putin does not want to come to
08:53the Russian people and say, OK, we have gained some more territory, a little bit of Donbass,
08:58a little bit of Crimea.
09:00The goal of Putin was to avoid Ukraine to be a country.
09:07I know because I spoke with him about this.
09:09What did he say?
09:10I mean, he said one day, he said to me, why are you defending Ukraine?
09:13You know very well that Ukraine is an artificial country created by the CIA and by the European
09:18Commission.
09:19I told him, look, if it was the European Commission who created Ukraine, I should be informed.
09:22So it's completely, yeah.
09:24So in fact, he does not want Ukraine to exist, or if it exists, to be a kind of Belarus without
09:31any independence in foreign policy or in defense terms.
09:34It can be a vassal state.
09:36This is his goal.
09:38So that's why if we are able to make Ukraine a member of the European Union, it shows that
09:45his goal was not fulfilled.
09:47And what is at stake is exactly that.
09:50Are we going to support Ukraine in a way that Ukraine can be a country, or are we going
09:56to say, OK, Mr. Putin, you are stronger, we are weak, you can take Ukraine, it's not so
10:02important for us?
10:03That's the question.
10:04OK.
10:05So you're head of the Global Vaccine Alliance.
10:09Are you worried about the backlash, global backlash against vaccines?
10:13We've heard, you know, during the COVID period and so on, that people were saying they weren't
10:17going to take the vaccine and then that might impact parents giving their vaccine to children.
10:22Yeah, I am.
10:23There is a counter-information very active in the net made by very, well, I think they
10:28are criminal forces, frankly.
10:30I think it's a criminal thing.
10:33We know very well, and it has been demonstrated over decades and decades, that countries in
10:38Africa that vaccinated their children, the life expectancy and the child goes up and
10:44the child mortality goes down.
10:46Others, the neighbors, they don't do it because they don't have the means.
10:51Kids die.
10:52There is nothing more important in the world than saving the life of our children.
10:57I believe nothing more important.
10:59And so we know by experience, by empirical evidence, that in fact, vaccines save lives.
11:05It does not mean that one or other vaccine cannot have secondary effects.
11:09All medicines have secondary effects, all medicines.
11:13But overall, vaccines save life against measles, against polio, I mean, against yellow fever
11:20or COVID was a new vaccine, but also against COVID.
11:25So yes, there is now a campaign in some sectors for reasons that are hard to understand.
11:30Some of these people are completely paranoid.
11:34They give up to these conspiracy theories.
11:35It's very strange.
11:37And what they are doing, from my point of view, is somehow criminal, because they are
11:43in fact, if they have success, they will provoke the deaths of millions of people.
11:49Okay.
11:50Jose Manuel Barroso, former president of the European Commission, thank you very much for
11:53joining us on the Europe Conversation.
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