- 2 years ago
Will Putin and Zelensky heed Trump's push for peace? Analysis with top foreign polcy expert Pankaj Saran
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00:00It wasn't easy. It has taken the personal capital and involvement of the three of the top leaders,
00:07Trump, Putin and Zelensky, nothing less than that. And Trump is being helped by a set of very,
00:14very close confidants and advisors who are actually not very good at foreign policy.
00:20They're coming with so much animus, and so much baggage, and so many wounds. I mean,
00:28not physical, but strategic and political, that both the leaders are going to require
00:34a huge amount of courage to go back to their people and talk to them and say,
00:41why did we lose so many young men? As you said, we are talking not thousands,
00:46but hundreds of thousands. So effectively, it's a huge loss. They have 20% of Ukraine,
00:52which is now part of Russia as per their constitution. These have been annexed. So
00:58that is one clear gain which they have. Secondly, they have done a shock and awe in terms of
01:04decimating Ukraine's energy infrastructure, transport infrastructure, inflicting very
01:11huge damages on men and material, including a lot of the Western material. But yes, I mean,
01:19if you're saying that they could not occupy Kiev or the whole country, then true. I mean,
01:26that's not happened. But the question of whether that was ever the goal. But what they have also
01:31achieved apart from the battlefield is Zelensky is certainly a weaker man today than he was
01:37three years ago. So reputational damage, which Russia has suffered significantly,
01:44they are put on the back foot. They have to keep justifying whether they
01:48accept a rules based international order. That's something which they will be living with.
01:54Thirdly, the level of animosity today between Europe and Russia.
02:02Nothing but the truth. Hello, I'm Raj Chengu of India Today and your host for Nothing But
02:08the Truth. This is my weekly X-ray of key issues of concern to bring you perspectives
02:13and clarity as to why they matter to you without holding back on the truth.
02:23After more than three years of the Russia-Ukraine war, there is finally hope that it may be ending
02:30soon. Last week, US President Donald Trump pushed hard for an interim 30 day ceasefire deal
02:37as the first big step. He spoke to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President
02:44Vladimir Zelensky to hammer out a tenuous agreement with both sides having their own caveats.
02:52So in this episode of Nothing But the Truth, we would look at whether the flooding of negotiations
02:58will pave the way for a broader peace agreement. And to help us analyze the situation, I'm delighted
03:04to welcome Pankaj Saran, a former Indian ambassador to Russia and also an ex-deputy
03:09national security advisor and currently convener of Natstrat, a Delhi-based think tank. So,
03:15Pankaj Saran, welcome to Nothing But the Truth. Thank you very much, Raj. Delighted to be on your
03:20show. Thank you. Thank you, Pankaj. And let's go straight to the big question. What is the
03:25significance of this interim 30 day ceasefire agreement that is being negotiated by President
03:30Trump? And do you see it as the first big step towards maybe a broader peace agreement?
03:39Yeah, thank you, Raj. I think it's very significant. I mean, it was not easy to
03:44change the narrative and turn the ship after three years of very, very intense fighting and brutal
03:49fighting. So even this one small step is very significant. It, I think, changes the whole
03:56contours of the discourse of the last three years. It wasn't easy. It has taken the personal
04:04capital and involvement of the three of the top leaders, Trump, Putin and Zelensky, nothing less
04:11than that. And Trump is being helped by a set of very, very close confidants and advisors who are
04:20actually not very good at foreign policy. They're very good at deal making. And so I would say it's
04:26a very significant step. But it's a long way ahead on the road to what they call a durable
04:33and a sustainable peace. But, you know, as the saying goes, the long journey always begins with
04:40the first step. And I think he's cracked the ice. And I think we are on to further progress
04:47in the weeks and months ahead, for sure. Now, let's look at and you had mentioned the toll
04:52while you were, you know, analysing the points that you made. People are looking at something
04:57like 400,000 or 400,000 Ukrainians who have either been killed or military personnel who have either
05:04been killed or injured. And the Russian toll is also equally high. Some figures put it at about
05:09700,000 Russian personnel that have either been killed and wounded. This is huge. Right. And so
05:17what are the kind of things when they are going to sit down and negotiate? What would be the key
05:21areas of concern for both? And what are the caveats they will be putting on this?
05:26You know, the key areas are, look, you know, they're coming with so much animus.
05:31Right. And so much of baggage and so many wounds. I mean, not physical, but strategic and political
05:40that both the leaders are going to require a huge amount of courage to go back to their people
05:46and talk to them and say, why did we lose so many young men? As you said, we are talking not
05:54thousands, but hundreds of thousands. So effectively, it's a huge loss. So the first
06:00thing you have to do is what has been done in the last eight weeks since Trump was inaugurated
06:07is to do a cold stop to the rhetoric, to the poison, to the public narrative,
06:14and turn the ship and turn the narrative away from talking about war incessantly to begin to
06:21talk about peace. Right. That by itself is a huge shift. And then, of course, if you try and address
06:27all the issues at the same time, it's going to be very difficult. That's the first thing. Second
06:33thing is, you know, if you are trying to do it bottom up, then you will get stuck in the weeds.
06:39This peace process is a lesson where the leaders are coming right from the top and they're trying
06:44to approach it through a political prism. So they are deliberately not getting into the weeds.
06:52They are taking it one step at a time because there is a host of issues. You can get stuck in
06:57any of them. Right. So that's the kind of, you know, the nature of what we are going through
07:02at the moment. Now, you take a look at Russia's campaign that is there. What, in your opinion,
07:10are the major gains that Russia has made? They did set off with a set of principles that they wanted
07:15and, of course, have occupied quite a substantial amount of territory. People say 19 percent of
07:21Ukrainian territory, particularly in the Donbass region, which they say is Russian dominated.
07:26What is the, you know, in your estimate, what are the kind of gains that Russia has made
07:30from the original so-called military invasion or whatever they called it?
07:34They didn't call it a war. What has Russia gained in this so far?
07:39You know, one can answer that question at different levels. Right. If you're talking battlefield
07:44territorial, then obviously they have 20 percent of Ukraine, which is now part of Russia as per
07:51their constitution. These have been annexed. So that is one clear gain which they have. Secondly,
07:57they have done a shock and awe in terms of decimating Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
08:03Right. Transport infrastructure, inflicting very huge damages on men and material, including a lot
08:10of the Western material. But yes, I mean, if you ask, if you're saying that they could not
08:16occupy Kiev or the whole country, then true. I mean, that's not happened. But the question of
08:23whether that was ever the goal. But what they have also achieved apart from the battlefield
08:29is Zelensky is certainly a weaker man today than he was three years ago. So from a political lens,
08:35they have achieved the objective of weakening Zelensky, of creating a rift within Ukraine
08:43on the question of whether the war should continue or they should settle for a peace.
08:48So that strategic gain certainly I feel is with Russia. And thirdly, at a broader level,
08:57what they have done is to, they have succeeded in creating a rift in the transatlantic alliance.
09:03And they have also succeeded in creating divisions within Europe. They have succeeded in slowing
09:09down the European economy, almost on the verge of deindustrialization. So there are lots of
09:15gains for them. But the question is, is it so simple? I don't think so, because they have paid
09:21a very heavy price. Yes, can you detail that the heavy price that Russia has paid also? I mean,
09:27on one side, they've made tremendous gains, as you pointed out, both territorial and in terms of the
09:32world order changing. But on the other side, what are the big negatives that they face?
09:38You know, look, firstly, of course, the reputational damage which Russia has suffered
09:43significantly. They are put on the back foot. They have to keep justifying whether they accept
09:50rules based international order. That's something which they will be living with. Thirdly, the level
09:57of animosity today between Europe and Russia is at an all time high, perhaps as the highest it's
10:04ever been since, let's say, the World War. So that's a big setback for them. Secondly, of course,
10:13the men, the loss of people, the demographic battering that they have got. The economy
10:20has not tanked, but it's definitely slowed. They are under a whole slew of sanctions, which is
10:26hurting, which will hurt in the next few years. And, you know, they have been pushed, in a sense,
10:34their strategic options have been narrowed and they've been pushed to the Chinese for strategic
10:39comfort, etc. So these are the kind of losses which Russia has faced. And it will take a long,
10:46long time before they can go back to the normal integration that they had and enjoyed with the
10:55West. So these are all the major losses. Now, they don't have much to negotiate. Of course,
11:01they have the territory, but they have to recover and recoup the confidence and the trust
11:06that has been completely lost. That will take a long time, many years, I would say.
11:13Now, let's analyze why both sides should come to some agreement and maybe peace is possible.
11:20So if you take a look at the Russian point of view, why should Putin sit on the table now?
11:25Does it suit him to have an immediate agreement or does it suit him to sort of, okay, play along
11:30with Trump and say, yes, we'll work out things, but these are my caveats. And does it actually
11:35domestically benefit him to continue the war? Or does he see he needs a six-month timeline to
11:41actually work things out domestically? And what is the internal situation in terms of Russia and
11:46the support for the war? And Putin, of course. Yeah, I think Putin has been waiting for the
11:52elections in the United States. And he's a very clever tactical person. So he was waiting for
12:00the outcome. And for him, there could not have been a better outcome, because he correctly
12:07assessed that if it was a Trump administration, that would offer him the best chance for finding
12:14a way out of this mess. It's a complete mess. And I think he also understands it. Trump has
12:19publicly repeatedly said it's a classic mess. So I think Putin sees this as probably his best
12:27opportunity to find a way out. On the battlefield, he's more or less achieved what he wanted.
12:35You know, he's got the four republics. He has incorporated them into the Russian constitution.
12:42But is he satisfied? I don't think so. Does he want an escape route? Yes, he does. So
12:50politically, he sees the alignment in Washington to be good to find an honourable peace. Now,
12:57the question is whether he will be given an honourable peace. A lot also rides on the way
13:02he is approaching Trump's efforts to stop the war. I mean, Trump also expects something in return.
13:10I mean, Trump has put his own reputation online. And he's the kind of person who does not countenance
13:16humiliation or defeat. So there is a big burden even on Putin on how he can respond to what Trump
13:24is offering him. So to answer the question, I think Putin was looking for a way out. It's not
13:31as if he's sitting pretty. He finds this as his best opportunity. If he does not take this
13:36opportunity, I'm afraid things are going to get much worse. There will be nowhere he can go,
13:43because he's in any case completely alienated the Europeans. This is his only lifeline. And
13:50the people of Russia are suffering. I mean, Russian economy, as I said before,
13:54all those things are real. So these are the reasons why he is. And again, the very,
14:01very important point is the Russians under Putin and before have always, you know,
14:08when there is a kind of a power which has lost its superpower status, it's a very prickly power,
14:14you know, self-esteem and pride become very important. One of the things which Putin and
14:20the Russians have been always asking for is equality and equal standing and stature with
14:29Washington. So here you have a situation where Putin sees that an American president is ready
14:36to talk to him and level up with him and talk to him as an equal. This is a big gain for Putin. I
14:41mean, that's what Russia and Putin always wanted that you come to me, negotiate directly. Don't
14:49send your proxies to me. Don't send the Europeans to me. Let's sort this out as two major powers.
14:56And so in that sense, Trump has guessed Putin's requirements correctly of satisfying his,
15:07let's say, his ego, if I can use that word. So both men are playing this for their own purposes.
15:18But the stakes are high because neither can really afford to fail. There will be a lot of
15:25people and a lot of situations and a lot of issues which will come in the way of success.
15:33And they both know it. It's not going to be easy. It will require a big heart,
15:41a lot of steely determination. So we could be witnessing something historic out here. And so
15:50when the history is written 2025, 5, 10, 20 years down the line, 2025 will definitely
15:59be go down in history as a major landmark. And the personalities of Donald Trump and
16:06Putin and Zelensky, you know, these will all become names which will go down in history books.
16:10That is if everything goes well. And that's what I wanted to come to in terms of the pitfalls.
16:14You had mentioned that there are pitfalls. And if you look at what Zelensky did and the fact
16:20the way Trump has been dealing with Zelensky, the yo-yo approach, we saw how, you know,
16:26in the White House, this tremendous spectacle that happened between the leaders there.
16:32And then we've seen, you know, Trump again come back to the negotiation table and Zelensky also
16:38come right back. And they seem to have patched up in some senses, reached whatever agreement
16:43that's there. Trump is very keen on the mineral wealth that Ukraine has and wants a deal,
16:48the critical mineral wealth. What is your, you know, understanding of the way U.S. and Ukraine
16:54are behaving? And then, of course, we'll come to Europe and see what, you know, what is the
16:58role they could play or not play in this. I think what Trump has done is he has
17:05he has removed the cobwebs and he has come out clean. He has, you know, shed the baggage of a
17:15veneer of the whole war. And he's basically saying, let's call a spade a spade. Right.
17:25The role of Ukraine is over. He talks about repeatedly the fact that this should never
17:31have happened. It would never have happened under him. It's a war which is a complete mess.
17:39So, he has actually, in a sense, put Ukraine in a particular context and asked Ukraine
17:50to review its own posture and its own, let us say, position in the war. I mean, effectively,
17:58he's saying, look, this is something between us and the Russians. You stay out of it for the
18:03moment. Let me first sort it out. Now, for Zelensky, that has come as a shock because
18:09he had heard something totally different till two months ago. So, that is the first shock Zelensky
18:15has faced. But now the issues, of course, which will bother Zelensky clearly are,
18:26you know, how do I protect myself after the ceasefire? What kind of a peace arrangement
18:33I can get? And so, what we are finding is that you have the leader of the NATO alliance has
18:40taken a very, very definitive position. But the European allies are supporting Ukraine at the
18:46moment. But even the European allies are actually now talking in different voices. So, their war
18:54rhetoric has very significantly coming down in terms of the public posture. So, the relationship
19:03between Trump and Zelensky is very interesting, I would say. You know, obviously, for Zelensky
19:11and for Ukraine. So, Zelensky has been weakened, as I told you. But even in terms of the future,
19:16what Ukraine and Zelensky are expecting is that you have security guarantees,
19:24what happens to the whole question of NATO, of EU membership, of NATO membership,
19:30what happens to the territory occupied by Russia. And on all of this, I think,
19:38what the shock treatment which Trump has given to Zelensky, starting from the Oval Office meeting,
19:45is that he has suddenly changed the terms of the whole debate in a very fundamental way. There is
19:50no incrementalism here. It is a complete cold, hard stop and a disruption. Basically, what it
19:59appears now and what it appears Zelensky has coming to terms with is, he is not getting that
20:0520% territory back. There will be a new contact line cutting through the north-south axis of
20:12Ukraine. He is not getting NATO membership. He might get EU membership. He will get some kind
20:18of security guarantees. That is really the, you know, the hard technical negotiation. He is not
20:26getting, unlikely to get NATO, he is certainly not going to get NATO peace enforcers or peacekeepers.
20:33He might get some coalition of the willing, might, but the Russians have already said no.
20:38So, what else, you know, can he hope for? He is now looking for reconstruction.
20:45He is looking for, you know, basic things like return of the prisoners of war
20:53and all those kind of more minor details. So, his position is not a good one, actually,
21:03unfortunately. What Trump is offering him in turn is that Trump, in a sense,
21:09is taking on the responsibility of ensuring good Russian behavior on his shoulders
21:17and saying, look, through the minerals deal or today's news is that he might run the Zaporizhia
21:23nuclear plant, you know, so these kind of very innovative ways are being considered by Trump
21:30in a typical kind of real estate developer mindset that, you know, I can do all of these
21:36instead of giving you straight security guarantees, classical guarantees of the type you have seen.
21:42So, I would say it is all, it is this, it is a very innovative package and
21:51there are huge doubts in Europe and Ukraine whether this thing will stick, whether you can
22:00move from a partial ceasefire to a full ceasefire to a peace agreement and to then after that a
22:08durable road map in which the Russians say you have to address the root causes of the conflict
22:17and the Ukrainians are saying you have to support my security guarantees.
22:22Right, we have got a minute left, just a final wrap on this. I know this is a subject I am going
22:28to come back to you because we are in the thick of a major agreement that is going to happen and
22:33developments will happen. Your final gut feeling, you think it will go through, you think, you know,
22:39there is going to be this or it could fall apart? I think it is on track, I think there is no doubt
22:45given the kind of personal capital he has put on the process. So, it will go through but it will
22:52go through in stages. It will be difficult but I think we are on track to have a ceasefire and
22:58hopefully a peace agreement. Pankaj Saran, as usual, you are lucid, you have given us great
23:04insights. Thank you very much for being with us on Nothing But The Truth. Thank you so much.
23:09Thank you for being with me in this episode of Nothing But The Truth. I look forward to having
23:14you with me next week. Nothing But The Truth.