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00:00Thank you very much.
00:30Thank you very much.
04:41I think that we saw a development in the ideology of the militant groups that are operating today
04:43in Pakistan.
04:45And those two major trends are localized conflicts and struggles and insurgency and those three
04:56taraf we have the uh international groups which is mostly daish khorasan so uh we we saw the
05:06development of how local groups uh adjusted their propaganda and narratives to the uh grievances
05:15of the perceived or factual as basit was saying of the local population capitalizing on them
05:22like industrial draft the threat uh of the islamic state of daish khorasan uh we can see that it's a
05:31combination of ideology and also local grievances and here ideology plays a more huge role role uh for
05:41uh the um for the conception of a um fantastic non-realistic utopian
05:53regime that they want to uh they want to establish and this is what really has empowered them to
06:00spread this ideology uh across pakistan as well as the uh the the west and there is and this is one of
06:08the most important factor that the localized struggle and instances don't have is the cross-contamination
06:15of ideologies from on the online sphere that they can acquire uh through these online tools and then
06:24contaminate them uh whether they are in europe in turkey in iran in pakistan or afghanistan so these
06:31are the two major trends that we are witnessing here in uh in pakistan if that makes sense to to you
06:37yeah it perfectly makes sense just in terms of uh you know uh one clarity that uh i would require
06:45in terms of the comments that you made is the local ideology is just how much space is there now for
06:53global ideologies or global ideologies or it's just local grievances
06:59so uh for uh uh with regards to localized uh struggles uh uh misal ketor part
07:16dtp or baloch nationalist groups uh they have built uh a local ideology which shifted from global
07:27international agenda following the example of what we witnessed in afghanistan and now also in syria
07:33uh as uh uh as uh um winning models and now we are we're witnessing these local militant groups uh
07:44following these uh the this path as well in uh in pakistan just to mention uh the recent statements
07:52that put out by the lagian faction accusing sectarian groups in pakistan and daish korasan but
07:58uh not uh not mentioning uh the gtp just for instance and so so so so i got my answer there
08:06just a while in kaka uh local conflicts hameisha johai wo international triggers ke
08:12tor par johai wo istimal hoti lekin basit bai aap se yee bhi poochna chata hoon ke uh local
08:18grievances wo governance issues ki wajah se bhi kafi zyada aap samajta hai ke kya governance
08:23ka kisoo ka fukadah justice ka kis chis ka fukadah ta eevilipmen ka ka kis chis ka fukadah
08:38Where is the center of gravity?
08:40Where is the center of gravity?
08:42One is the K.P.
08:43Especially the newly merged districts.
08:46What is the government?
08:49What is the development?
08:52What is the genuine political representation?
08:56A genuine unhindered political process?
09:00If you look at the social contract and the relationship
09:04If you look critically
09:06The glue that holds the social contact together is governance
09:10So if governance goes missing
09:13Then people's aspirations
09:16The demands and expectations
09:18The alternative center of powers
09:23They are standing on the periphery
09:25And non-state actors
09:27Who are Baloch Insurgents
09:29Or TTP
09:31They are going to fill the government
09:36And because they are going to fill the government
09:38Or they are going to fill the government
09:40Or they are going to fill the government
09:41As parallel power centers
09:42They are going to fill the government
09:43So there are vulnerable segments
09:45Which are disenfranchised
09:48Which are alienated
09:49Especially young people
09:51If they have those vulnerabilities
09:54To play
09:55In the local
09:56Do they have the grievances
09:57They have the government
09:59They have instructions
10:00They have the identity
10:01They have the representation
10:03They have the representation
10:04They have the role of employment
10:06So then they have all
10:08In theience
10:09which is the stream line
10:11is starting to get started
10:13but I will ask you to go to the break
10:15but I will ask you to ask you to ask you to ask me
10:17what the policy level
10:19is particularly the majority literature
10:21which is written by Western authors
10:23which is written by the Western authors
10:25which is written by the 313 groups
10:27which are almost finished
10:29and that is the debate
10:31we will ask you to break
10:33and then we will ask you to go to the
10:39Welcome back
10:41Wale, I wanted to ask you this question
10:43actually
10:45the new changing dynamics
10:47and how governments
10:49across the globe are actually framing
10:51their policies
10:53why do we see that the nuances are not
10:55being understood
10:57even the other day we had this debate
10:59with the Pakistani minister
11:01on an international TV channel
11:03talking of a defunct organization
11:05such as the 313 Brigade
11:07do you see that people have grasped
11:09the nuances or it's just the old
11:11that people are recalibrating again
11:13and again
11:15the case of the
11:17Mary I'll say
11:19this
11:21discussion
11:23Brigade 313
11:25camera may or
11:27other militant organizations historical
11:29militant organization
11:31that we are not witnessing any more active
11:33is a source of confusion
11:37and also of commotion
11:39among the larger public
11:41and this is because
11:43these militant groups have been operating
11:45in the past
11:47and today they have a legacy
11:49not only in the larger public
11:51but also in the militant sphere
11:53however, having said that
11:55the importance of
11:57the discussion that should be around
11:59these militant groups
12:01and specifically
12:03the 313 Brigade
12:05is again
12:07on the factual evidence that we have
12:09that such groups is still operating
12:11and we do not have any factual evidence
12:13that this group operating
12:15after 2011
12:17we have last major attacks claimed by the GTP
12:19and carried out together with the Brigade 313
12:21CID
12:23but after that, after the killing of Elias Kashmiri
12:25who was the mastermind
12:27the main man behind
12:29the 313 Brigade
12:31the group eventually fractured
12:33now
12:35the discussion
12:37around militant environment
12:39in Pakistan should not be confined
12:41solely to the historical
12:43tracks of these groups
12:45but in order to understand
12:47the current development, the current scenario
12:49in Pakistan
12:51it should address
12:53those groups that are actually
12:55now operating and dissecting
12:57as we discussed
12:59the ideology
13:01and also the grievances
13:03that these militant groups are
13:05putting forward
13:07so with regards to
13:09the Brigade 313
13:11we can fairly say
13:13that there is no evidence
13:15neither in literature nor in attacks
13:17in Pakistan
13:19as well as in the
13:21in the rest of the
13:23of the region
13:25we do know that some of the people
13:27the militants that were working with the Brigade 313
13:29either shifted towards
13:31AQIS
13:33the Al-Qaeda branch
13:35in the subcontinent
13:37with regards to attacks
13:39publishing statements
13:41and publishing new narratives
13:43on the subcontinent
13:45and
13:47and then we know that some factions
13:49some local militants
13:51they have shifted towards
13:53one of the major groups that has been
13:55changing over the years
13:57in the U.S.
13:59in the U.S.
14:00in the U.S.
14:01of the
14:02Pakistani Taliban
14:03however
14:04again
14:05the
14:06these
14:07military again
14:08as we were talking before
14:09but these are all on the peripheries
14:11while they're
14:12they're not more urbanized
14:13they're all groups that have been
14:15periphery
14:16not like what we saw in the post
14:182001 or earlier than that
14:21absolutely absolutely
14:23and here is the
14:24here is the trick
14:25and here is
14:26where the discussion
14:27should actually focus instead
14:28on the name of the organization
14:30whether it is active or not
14:31the discussion should be on
14:33how these groups
14:35developed over time
14:36and for instance the TTG
14:38how we develop over time
14:40and how some members of the Brigade 313
14:42who were all from urban areas
14:44they were from Punjab and Sin
14:46and they were focused on
14:48very they were tightly linked to Al-Qaeda
14:50we have papers
14:52we know that
14:53Elias Kashmiri
14:54had been in contact
14:55with OBL
14:56before 9-11
14:57he had been in contact
14:58with Abu Yazid
14:59the responsible of Al-Qaeda
15:01in Pakistan
15:02he had been in contact
15:03of course with
15:04Abu Yahya al-Libi
15:05and etc
15:06but this is all history
15:07now we're talking
15:08something completely different
15:09which is radicated
15:11in the
15:12in a grass
15:13in local
15:14localized insurgency
15:15okay so I
15:16have little time
15:17I'm just going to ask you
15:18one last question
15:19before I actually
15:20asked Basset
15:21for the last comments
15:22how do you see the future
15:23do you see more splinter groups
15:25more nascent groups
15:26more active groups
15:29in Pakistan
15:30with regards to
15:31jihadist environment
15:33it had
15:34it has been totally
15:35monopolized by
15:36the TTP
15:37and the TTG
15:38which
15:39even though they are
15:40in competition with each other
15:41for resources
15:42and local militants
15:43they are also allied
15:44and they work
15:45and they work
15:46and they work
15:47together in certain
15:48specific areas
15:49of Pakistan
15:50where they share
15:51areas of operation
15:53so
15:54the trend that
15:55we've been witnessing
15:56in Pakistan
15:57since 2021
15:58is actually
15:59structuring
16:01of the militant
16:03of the jihadist sphere
16:04in Pakistan
16:05which goes beyond
16:06which goes beyond
16:07the identity
16:08of one single
16:09commander
16:11of leader
16:12of the militant's environment
16:15but again
16:16it has to be seen
16:17because we know that
16:18in the past
16:19the TTP suffered
16:20it's the most difficult moments
16:22when the leader
16:23got
16:24neutralized
16:26by
16:27by Pakistan
16:28and the US
16:29so we will have to see
16:30what happened
16:31if the current leader
16:32will suffer
16:33the same thing
16:34I'll go to Basit
16:35now
16:36Basit
16:37the last comments
16:38the landscape shift
16:40with regional realities
16:42do you see
16:43that the militant landscape
16:45and the proxy walls
16:46will be more intensified
16:47and they have the capability
17:14of instigating a war
17:15when you get a threat
17:17of a conflict
17:18between two
17:19nuclear states
17:20and a terrorist attack
17:21and evidence
17:22to give the evidence
17:23and it will be considered
17:24a declaration of war
17:26then
17:27when you have
17:28a very complex landscape
17:30the threat landscape
17:31and militant landscape
17:32like Pakistan
17:33and Afghanistan
17:34and these chips
17:35are within
17:36an alphabet soup of groups
17:37like a big group
17:38which is known
17:40as the first of all
17:41you need to do
17:42is one successful attack
17:44and there you go
17:45So if you have a plan for this, 313 Brigade,
17:48so you have to have a plan for this.
17:51So if someone has a agenda on the same idea,
17:54then they will have a footprint on the ground.
17:56They will have a attack,
17:58India and Pakistan.
18:00And now, the discourse is over.
18:04I'm not sure.
18:06A complex landscape of this,
18:08which is a complex landscape and this is a way of
18:11جو ہے منجمت تھی کسی زمانے کے اندر
18:13obviously ایک
18:15اس کی ایک اپنی history ایک counter terrorism
18:17کے حوالے سے کہ کس طرح ان areas کو جو ہے
18:19وہ صاف کیا گیا اور دوہزار اکیس کے
18:21بعد دوبارہ سے ایک trend جو ہے وہ شروع ہوا
18:23جو کافی حد تک control ہے لیکن
18:25peripheries میں ابھی تک اس کے problem جو ہے
18:27وہ نظر آتا ہے لیکن اس سے بڑھ کر جو ہے
18:29خطے کی جو
18:31مجموعی صورتحال ہے اس کے اندر
18:33جو اتار چڑھاؤ جو ہے دیکھنے میں آ رہے ہیں
18:35اور نئے alliances دیکھنے میں آ رہے ہیں
18:37ابھی بھی security کے challenges
18:39جو ہے وہ موجود ہیں پروگرام دیکھتے رہیے گا
18:41انشاءاللہ کل آپ سے دوبارہ
18:43ملیں گے خدا حافظ

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