00:00Assassination of the Ayatollah Khamenei is a bargaining chip.
00:03It's to help Iran realize that it's on its last legs.
00:06A few actors in the Middle East now consider Iran as an existential threat.
00:11One of the biggest power players being Saudi Arabia.
00:13So people will be celebrating.
00:15There are many Sunni actors in the Middle East who will secretly be celebrating
00:20this response by Israel as a victory against one of their greatest rivals, Iran.
00:26Iran has already enriched beyond 20%, some stockpiles 60%.
00:30All Iran needed for a nuclear energy facility, if it were being honest.
00:35Jordan, my very first question to you, because this is the developing story,
00:41and we do know that Israel and Iran are in war for a very, very long time.
00:48But this new attack operation, Rising Lion, how do you see it spiraling
00:55in the entire Middle East?
00:57Because Iran has been saying that they will attack USA as well.
01:00But if that happens, it is going to be devastating.
01:04Wars started by Iran's proxies has now been spiraling throughout the Middle East
01:08over the last year and a half.
01:10It was Iran ultimately who paid Hamas approximately $100 million a year,
01:16contributing that towards its budget, which invaded Israel on October 7th,
01:20since 2023, and killed 1,200 innocent people.
01:24And of course, in recent years, Iran has also given anywhere between $400 million to $700 million,
01:31perhaps even upwards of that, to Hezbollah in Lebanon, just north of Israel,
01:36that amassed a rocket arsenal of 150,000 rockets that were once pointed at Israel,
01:42and that contributed to the October 7th war after it began.
01:45And not to forget the Houthis in Yemen, which have been firing onto, recently, drones into Israel,
01:53trying to cause attacks, and recently hit Ben-Gurion International Airport in the Tel Aviv area.
01:59And so Iran has escalated a war, a regional proxy war against Israel, aspiring for its destruction.
02:06And even though Iran supports a Shiite version of Islamism, it's ironic that its disdain for Israel is so strong,
02:16that over time it has actually sponsored Sunni Islamist groups, such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
02:23So it's a bit difficult to foretell where this current bout in the war will lead.
02:28Yeah.
02:29There's so many surprises unraveling as we currently speak.
02:33But it is the final piece in what has been a long war to undermine, first on Iran's part,
02:42to undermine Israel, and in Israel's response to undermine...
02:45Israel keeps saying they're attacking the nuclear sites.
02:50But how much Iran has developed their nukes, because we really do not have a clear picture,
02:57of course, Iran being a country which is much of a dictatorship.
03:02So how much do we know about that, where has their Iran nuclear, you know, nukes are prepared,
03:10and when can they really have a nuclear weapon? Because now they are attacking in this name,
03:15and many countries have been devastated in Middle East in the name of, you know, weapons.
03:22I think it's a good question, but the reality is the IAEA, the top international nuclear watchdog,
03:29as a matter of fact, this last week came out with a resolution acknowledging that Iran was in breach
03:35of its nonproliferation, nuclear nonproliferation duties. Iran was a party to the nuclear nonproliferation
03:42treaty when it started enriching. On top of that, it was found to have been in violation of the JCPOA,
03:49the nuclear agreement with Western nations. And it was found recently, intelligence discovered and
03:56revealed that Iran had actually conducted nuclear implosion tests, which are necessary for long-term
04:03weapon development approximately two decades ago. Iran has been acting completely in bad faith this
04:09whole time. There is an agreement in place before the MPT, which it violated. And then to help people
04:14understand, to develop a nuclear weapon, you need to enrich nuclear stockpiles, uranium stockpiles.
04:20Now, the other problem, Russia, Russia just last week, they have brought their bombers,
04:30that two nuclear-capable bombers near Iran in Far East, Middle East. So, Russia is also, of course,
04:39not going to be silent if situation arises that Iran is going to attack US military bases. It is just
04:46yesterday that Iran said that if Israel attacks, it is going to be devastating and they are not going to
04:53spare US bases. And there are at least 3,000 soldiers of USA who are there. So, the US somehow will have to
05:02participate in this war.
05:04I think just going quickly back to your original question, though, Iran has already enriched beyond
05:1120 percent, some stockpiles 60 percent. All Iran needed for a nuclear energy facility, if it were
05:17being honest, was about 3 percent, 3 to 5 percent. So, it's well beyond that threshold. Regarding your
05:24question in regards to Russia and Iranian response and foreign intervention, it should be noted that Russia's
05:33hands are quite tied right now, especially when it comes to the war in Ukraine. It's possible that the
05:40reason Syria fell so quickly and Assad, a proxy of Russia in the Middle East, as well as for Iran, fell so
05:48quickly, was because Russia simply couldn't sustain him anymore. They didn't have the resources, the time,
05:54the bandwidth. And so, I'm not…
05:56Despite all that, Putin didn't say no to war. He's still attacking and they have taken several
06:03kilometers of Ukraine. So, it seems like Putin is winning. Of course, there is a different propaganda
06:09that all works for Russia and Ukraine as well. But let's stick to Middle East for now. And of course,
06:15we are bringing in Russia because Russia is the archrival of USA and they are not going to spare
06:22those bases which are in Middle East, that too close to Iran. What I mean to say, if I have to
06:28summarize this, that US is in big trouble despite Trump saying that he does not want to be involved
06:34in this attack. And Rubio just, you know, tweeted that if US bases are hit, they will react. But they
06:42have said that they are not part of this Operation Rising Lion. But US will be attacked. It is imminent.
06:50I think the United States has created a degree of plausible deniability here. It has engaged with
06:57Iran and over, at least until now, five rounds of negotiations to try to forge some sort of nuclear
07:04deal with Iran, which has made clear it wants to continue to enrich. So, there's a degree of separation
07:09over there. Trump has come out in the media basically making it seem that even though he's willing to
07:16entertain the option, any option to make sure that Iran won't get nuclear weapons, he's also made sure
07:23to create a separation in terms of plausible deniability between what action Israel might pursue
07:31and what the United States might pursue. And so right now, Iran doesn't have tangible proof to go after
07:39the United States for the developments right now in the Middle East. Of course, it seems that the
07:45United States does support Israel's efforts to defend itself against existential threats right now.
07:52But there still is that room that gives the United States some breathing room to go in to see if there
07:59is any potential for some sort of nuclear deal on Sunday, which I highly doubt there will be.
08:04Yeah, I think the nuclear talks are going to fail for sure. But the bigger problem that it can spiral
08:13in the entire Middle East and then to Europe and other places, I mean the World War III, are we already
08:21in World War III or there is something left or this might start with this Operation Rising Lion?
08:28That's a good question. Nobody ever knows initially when they're kind of in a World War, as is what
08:33happened in World War I. And then in World War II, people thought that policies of appeasement would
08:38eventually cause the end of that war and it didn't. And so right now, it's hard to determine what the
08:44future holds. I can't imagine Russia will get involved with its bandwidth being as occupied as it is right
08:51now. China probably wouldn't want to unsettle the region given the investments it has in the
08:58one belt, one road initiative, which goes all throughout the Middle East. And on top of that,
09:04it's important to understand that there are many Sunni actors in the Middle East who will secretly be
09:09celebrating this response by Israel as a victory against one of their greatest rivals, Iran. Saudi Arabia
09:17also perceives of Iran as an existential threat, as do some, I mean, a few actors in the Middle East now
09:26consider Iran as an existential threat. One of the biggest power players being Saudi Arabia. So people
09:32will be celebrating behind the scenes. There have been proxy wars between Shiite Islamists and Sunni
09:37Islamists now since the Arab Spring and for years even before, such as in Lebanon where Hezbollah,
09:43a Shiite Islamist movement once maintained strong, strong control over the country and now a bit
09:48lesser or so. Jordan, this would be the final war and maybe end of Iran if Iran attacks US bases.
10:00Because, you know, Israel has killed the top command last year, even in this attack, in the very first
10:07attack they have killed the commander. So my question is, why not Khamenei? I mean, if Israel
10:13wants, they can finish Khamenei and then the war is over and they can control Iran. Do you think it is
10:21possible? Because Russia, of course, was not active even last year. Russia did not come up or China did
10:26not come up in support of Iran. It was only verbal.
10:29I definitely think withholding the assassination of the Ayatollah Khamenei is a bargaining chip. It's
10:37to help Iran realize that it's on its last legs. It's possible, however, that there could be
10:42underground operations soon to commence at some point in the future. This will definitely be a
10:48reckoning point for the Iranian people, that the regime is as weakest as it's been since the Masa
10:54Amini protest. And Iran is also a country that's very fragile in terms of demographics. A significant
11:02portion of the population, perhaps even up to 40 percent of the population, is composed of ethnic
11:08minorities such as Azeris, Baluchis, Kurds, Arabs in Kuznetstan, many of whom have national aspirations
11:16of their own. And for a country that is one of the greatest state sponsors of terrorism, Iran,
11:22it's also important to note that approximately, according to Michael Axworthy, an author about
11:27a book on Iran, noted that only 1.5 percent of the population goes to Friday prayers. And so you have
11:34a Islamist regime in charge of a people which, though it does have significant Islamist elements,
11:41is also largely secular. And so there's a lot of fragmentation in Iranian society,
11:48and this could be an interesting breaking point for people to realize that a different future is needed.
11:56But my last question, where are we heading with all the wars? Of course, we saw India,
12:03Pakistan as well for two or three days. But where are we heading as a world, as world citizens? Is our
12:12future in dark? It's complicated because right now we're focusing on the Middle East and South Asia,
12:20but who's not to say that the focus of the world might pivot to Asia and the Pacific. All of this
12:25being said, the Middle East has always been a strong point focus of the world. I don't see it changing
12:31anytime soon. I don't see, per se, wars ending forever in the immediate future. But I do think it's
12:39important that we use this opportunity to stand up against terrorism wherever it may manifest,
12:44whether from the borders of Pakistan, whether from Iran and its proxies, whether from terrorist
12:51groups in the Gaza Strip. We all need to be more organized when it comes to fighting terrorism
12:56and to realizing the threat that Islamist terrorism can pose.
13:00Thank you so much. It was Jordan Cook giving us all the details about what has happened early morning.
13:11And of course, we'll keep an eye on what is happening in the Middle East and how Iran is going to react,
13:17because Iran has said that the action this time will not be just to show the world what is their capability,
13:25but it is going to be deadly, that there are going to be casualties. Let's hope for the best.
13:31However, the war has reignited in Iran. This is Nagain Singh for One India.
