- 1 year ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. Hurricane Melissa will bring strong winds & heavy rain to the Caribbean. Could it affect the UK? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick
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00:00Hello there and welcome to this week's Deep Dive and I'm afraid it's a bit of an end of an era, this is officially going to be my last Deep Dive for a while but it's bittersweet, we do have Annie returning next week, probably not on the Deep Dive, that would seem a bit harsh for her first week back but nevertheless we're going to see more of Annie's face and slightly less of mine but I will pop up from time to time.
00:22There is plenty to talk about though this week, of course we've got Hurricane Melissa which you can see behind me that has intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the weekend bringing very large amounts of rainfall and some strong winds so we're going to dive a little bit into this hurricane and see why it's intensified so far and also have a look to see if it could potentially impact our weather as we head into next week.
00:49Not only that but it's half term for many of us as well and it's Halloween so there's going to be plenty of people out and about so we'll go into this week's weather forecast and also take a look at the potential of maybe there being some stormy conditions for us that doesn't include Hurricane Melissa so there's plenty to talk about.
01:09So let's start off with then what's behind me, Hurricane Melissa, that has intensified into a Category 5 hurricane, I think it was yesterday, so bringing really intense winds, wind speeds of around 175 miles per hour, of course to be a Category 5 hurricane it needs to be around 157 miles per hour winds or more and not only this but we're seeing these as sustained wind speeds so very very strong winds and not only this but really quite a lot of rainfall.
01:37Over the event as a whole it's forecasted to see around 1,000 millimeters of rain so this really causing quite detrimental impacts to Jamaica and also to parts of Cuba, Haiti and other areas of the Caribbean as this system drifts its way northwards.
01:52And it's record breaking in some ways and there's only been a previous hurricane that's been Category 3 strength or more that's hit Jamaica so actually made landfall and that was back in 1988 that was Hurricane Gilbert which was Category 3.
02:08So this has been the most powerful hurricane to impact Jamaica, not only this but it's the third Category 5 hurricane of this season, the previous ones being Erin and Humberto and I think me and Julian were on talking about Humberto actually if you want to take back, take a look at some previous deep dives that we've done.
02:28But yeah it's the third Category 5 but yeah it's the third Category 5 of this season and the last time we saw that was in 2005 where we saw 4 so it's not long previous or it's about 10 years ago that we actually saw that many hurricanes become this intense.
02:44Last I checked the central pressure of this system was 901 millibars, that's the central pressure and that makes it the sixth lowest pressure in the North Atlantic, the sixth lowest pressure of a hurricane in the North Atlantic that we have seen and that beats Hurricane Katrina which was also in 2005.
03:06So it's record breaking in some ways but nevertheless it is set to be a very powerful storm intensifying through the course of the day as it tracks northwards through Jamaica.
03:17So why has this storm become so intense? Well one of the reasons actually is because where it's come from, usually with these kind of systems, they move from east, southeast, move their way towards the west or northwest so track kind of along this way but this one's actually pushed up more from the south.
03:35Not only this but the steering winds they're called, so the winds that kind of push the system along, they've been very light.
03:43So not only has it come from a slightly different location but it's also moved very slowly so where we've seen those intense winds, those intense downpours of rain, it's stuck there for a long time.
03:57So we're really going to see quite catastrophic hazards as a result of this system, where it's come from and how long it's lingering around.
04:07So it's drifted up from the south, it's likely to move its way north, northeastwards through the Caribbean still as a hurricane and eventually as it continues to push its way north, northeastwards, it will move into those cooler waters, it will move into air that's slightly drier and also with a little bit more wind shear.
04:25So it should eventually fill and become less of a feature but nevertheless as it starts to move into this region, there's a potential there for it to get picked up by a jet stream and have an impact on our weather but I'll come more onto that into a moment.
04:37So why has this system been so powerful?
04:41Well let's take a look back at the basics, what do we need for a hurricane to form in the first place?
04:47Well we need quite warm waters, around 26.5 degrees Celsius or more.
04:52It also needs to, well we need wind shear in the right kind of latitude as well between 10 to 20 degrees north if we're talking about North Atlantic hurricanes.
05:01So we need warm waters, we need it to take place in the right location and also we need wind shear, so that's the change in wind speed and direction as we move up along a column of the atmosphere.
05:14Not too much wind shear because that can tear the system apart and it never becomes hurricane status but we just need just the right amount, just a little bit in order to create that initial spin up and not tear the storm apart.
05:28And Hurricane Melissa really has had all those ingredients, so let's take a look at sea surface temperatures around the Caribbean, we're kind of looking at 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, this is a few degrees above average for the time of year, something we're probably going to see more of as a result of climate change.
05:48So we have got those warm waters and we have got it kind of spinning up in similar locations to the two previous hurricanes we've had this year, but as I've said, this one has moved in that slightly different wind, moved in from that slightly different direction and not only that but the other two mostly stayed out to sea, whereas this one's really pushed into those land areas, obviously causing more impacts as a result.
06:12So we've got the warm sea surface temperatures, another interesting thing is what can often happen with hurricanes as they continue to spin up, particularly if they're slow moving like this one is, we can get a bit of upwelling of water and the water further below tends to be a little bit cooler, but what we're seeing at the moment is actually water temperatures deeper down, further away from the surface, they're actually still quite warm.
06:40So as this system slowly intensifies, doesn't really move up anywhere, it's still upwelling those really warm waters, so we're continuing to see it kind of intensify, whereas usually if those waters are a bit cooler, that kind of lessens the fuel in a way for that hurricane to intensify.
06:59So warm sea surface temperatures, not only that but a continuous fuel source of that warmer water deeper below, we've had, obviously it's slightly different wind, I keep calling it wind direction, it's not wind direction, a slightly different kind of track of the system as it's moved its way up from the south, so that's slightly different, it's taken place in the right location and we've had just the right amount of wind shear.
07:24And it's then becoming quite an intense area and bringing quite significant impacts and it's also down to the orography of Jamaica too, we've got some areas of quite high land, some quite high land areas, so this is where we could see some quite intense outbreaks of rain.
07:41And when we see those intense areas of rain on higher ground areas, that can create landfalls, not only that but there are some areas particularly across parts of the southwest that are quite low, so not only that but with those strong winds creating those storm surges, which could be around, you know, we're looking at a kind of wave heights around 13 feet, so not only that but in those low-lying areas we've got those really intense waves creating quite impactful flooding,
08:08and not only that but in the higher ground areas we've got the risk of landslides and there's pretty much nowhere to hide in terms of, in terms of that storm pushing into Jamaica, some really intense winds and also some intense outbreaks of rainfall.
08:22These, this is the kind of rainfall we are expecting, this is kind of forecast rainfall, so we're really looking at those, those reds, those purple areas, particularly Jamaica we can see there's this kind of purple ring there, this is 500 to 750 millimetres of rain, not only that but pushing into southern areas of Cuba, we've got similar amounts.
08:44So this, I mean this is really is an incredible amount of rain, the event as a whole we're probably going to see around a thousand millimetres and to put that in context that's around about what we get to see in London within a year, not just over three days in one particular spot.
09:01So widespread flooding, really intense winds causing quite a lot of destruction, storm surges, landslides, and I think we've seen some, some fatalities as a result of this storm already and I'm sure we're going to see more over the coming days too.
09:15And as I said earlier, the other two storms, so Airy and Humberto, mostly stayed out to sea, but this one's not only impacting one land area but a few as it drifts its way northward, so a really, really intense storm that we're going to see.
09:30As a result of this, I've taken this from the National Hurricane Centre, if you do want a few more details on the hurricane, do take a look, but it's really highlighting how catastrophic this storm is going to be, the kind of advice they're giving out with landslides, destructive winds, widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, not only in Jamaica but also Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba,
09:59and southeastern and central Bahamas, also Turks and chaos, hurricane conditions, you know, life-threatening conditions there.
10:06So it's a few different land areas that are going to be impacted as a result of this also very impactful storm.
10:13So there we go, it is set to be a very intense storm.
10:17Let's take a look at its track further ahead as well, obviously I already showed you this system, this track cone, sorry, which has it forecasted, kind of moving its way northeastwards.
10:27And this also shows a few different model areas that are once again forecasting its track.
10:33Now, it's fairly slow moving at the moment, but as it drifts its way northwards, it's probably going to move a little bit quicker.
10:40So any areas further north will see less of the strongest winds, less of the rain, but nevertheless, it is still going to move through and be quite powerful.
10:48But as it drifts its way northwards, it moves into that colder air.
10:52We see those sea surface temperatures not quite as warm, so that kind of reduces the amount of fuel that system does have in order to spin up.
11:01And of course, this storm, as it drifts its way possibly closer to us in the UK, that's still around a week away.
11:08So there's always going to be that little bit of uncertainty, as we can see from the spread of these models.
11:13You can see some models pushing it slightly further south, the majority pushing it slightly further north.
11:19We could see some tracks perhaps pushing closer into Iceland, but there's a fair few pushing it into the west, pushing it into parts of the UK.
11:28Now, of course, we don't get hurricanes in the UK.
11:31We can get ex-hurricanes sometimes, which have been hurricanes, but as they drift across the Atlantic, they're no longer classed as hurricanes, but they can still bring some wet and windy weather.
11:41So are we going to see this as a result of Melissa?
11:46Well, what I will say, I'm going to go back to my bigger picture.
11:51So I'm just going to move over here.
11:55So this here just around the Caribbean, we've got that area of low pressure.
12:01So let's play that through, obviously intensifying, bringing those outbreaks of rain, those very strong winds, and then it does eventually start to shift its way northwards.
12:11I'm actually going to drag it along myself because it's a little bit slow.
12:15So it's general, obviously, don't forget, this is our global model that we use at the Met Office as well.
12:19So it might be slightly different to the track I'm about to show you.
12:22But obviously, as it starts to drift its way north, we have got that jet stream slightly situated to the north as well.
12:30Now, at this point, we've got a jet streak flowing south here.
12:34It's not particularly strong.
12:35The strongest of the winds are further north or just to the west of Iberia there.
12:40So it doesn't really get picked up by any particular strong area of the jet stream until we start to move closer into the weekend.
12:49But even here, I think I even spoke about this last week, for an area of low pressure to really spin up some more, it needs to be in that left jet exit of the jet stream, that colder side of the jet stream.
13:00So this would kind of, it would need to be kind of either further up here or just around here.
13:05Take a look at last week.
13:06I gave a bit more of an explanation as to why.
13:09But anyway, this area of low pressure doesn't seem to move in that kind of left jet exit region of the jet stream as we would like to see in order for it to spin up and really bring some wet and windy weather across the UK.
13:23But nevertheless, you can see there is still that low tracking its way, according to our global model, across parts of the northwest.
13:32This is as far as my model will go at the moment.
13:35But further ahead models, such as the EC or further ahead in our global model, it does push that area of low pressure towards parts of the northwest.
13:44Are we going to see wind speeds, you know, of 175 miles per hour?
13:48Are we going to see a thousand millimeters of rain?
13:50No, but that is all because it's moved into those colder waters, moved into that drier air.
13:57But yes, it could potentially bring us some wet and windy weather.
14:00And depending on how this system does interact with the jet stream, could it be, you know, ex-hurricane Melissa?
14:08You know, it remains to be seen.
14:09Of course, keep an eye on our forecasts if you want more updates on that.
14:13But I would say at the moment it's unlikely.
14:16I mean, this is our global model still keeping it as an area of low pressure.
14:19But I've seen some runs of the EC that actually have it fizzling out a little bit further into the Atlantic.
14:23And it just kind of brings a little bit wet weather, but it doesn't necessarily look that particularly windy.
14:28So definitely one to keep an eye on, particularly over the next few days, to really note where it is going to track.
14:35But it's obviously not going to be quite as catastrophic across the UK as it has been for Jamaica and other areas of the Caribbean.
14:41But could we see a names low?
14:45Could we see a names low this week?
14:47Could we see one for Halloween?
14:49Dropping a few little hints there.
14:51Well, maybe.
14:52There's a little bit of chat this morning about another area of low pressure.
14:56So this is not the same.
14:58I'm just going to switch the jet stream off there.
15:00This is not the same area of low pressure.
15:02This is another one moving through later Thursday through into Friday.
15:06That's Melissa over there.
15:07So no longer talking about that one.
15:09This is a separate one.
15:10And you can see as this area of this low starts to push in from the west, there's quite a lot of ice bars on that chart.
15:17So once again, later Thursday through into Friday, quite a lot of strong winds pushing through.
15:23Not only this, but also some outbreaks of rain.
15:26Now the strongest winds at the moment through Thursday and also, if I push this along, even as we get into Friday, particularly on the southern flank of that low,
15:40they're probably going to be more towards Ireland, Northern Ireland, more Western areas.
15:46So we've had a few chats with Met Aaron to see whether there's any potential for them to name it.
15:51And of course, we work with them.
15:52Also KNMI in the Netherlands, we work with them.
15:55So if they were to name it, it would go along with our storm name.
15:59So it would become Storm Bram.
16:02But after chatting with them this morning, it doesn't look likely.
16:05But obviously, we have to see the next few model runs, probably reassess as we head into tomorrow morning.
16:11So there is the potential for a named storm on the cards.
16:13But as of yet, it's not really looking likely.
16:17But named storm or not, it is going to bring in some wet and windy weather.
16:20And of course, through Friday, if we drag through into Friday evening, there's going to be, I don't know, what time do people go trick-or-treating?
16:28About 6 p.m.?
16:28Is that about right?
16:29I'm probably not going to go myself.
16:31But nevertheless, there's probably going to be quite a lot of windy weather, a lot of breezy weather just across the far south where those winds aren't quite as intense.
16:39And some areas of rain, if not some showers, starting to move through.
16:43And also, it looks like the GM is showing the secondary area of low pressure.
16:47If you're out late on Friday night, that might be more like me.
16:50Another area of low pressure starting to push in from the southwest, also bringing some heavy outbreaks of rain and some strong winds.
16:57But I probably wouldn't take this as certain.
17:00I'm sure we're going to start to see a few changes with some newer model runs as we head further into the period.
17:07So, quite a lot of activity across the UK over the coming days.
17:12We do need to keep an eye on Melissa.
17:14We do need to keep an eye on other areas of low pressure as they move their way through across the Atlantic.
17:19And, of course, the whole reason for this is really this quite active jet stream at the moment.
17:25It's quite wavy.
17:29So, that means when we do pick up areas of low pressure, they do start to intensify as they drift across us in the UK.
17:36And that really does create that changeable pattern in our weather.
17:40Taking a look at the kind of weather patterns over the next couple of weeks or so, it does really look up and down.
17:45You'll have troughs in the jet stream, which could create areas of low pressure moving through.
17:50And then you'll get a slight ridge where you'll see some brighter, drier conditions, if not clearer conditions, if they take place overnight.
17:55And then also a change again into areas of low pressure, so some wet and windy weather.
18:01So, the weather, I would say, over the coming weeks is probably going to be very up and down.
18:06There's no clear signals as to whether we're going to see high pressure or a cold signal or a mild signal.
18:12But, of course, for a few more updates on that, you can catch Aidan tomorrow with the 10-day trend.
18:16So, I'm not going to step on his toes.
18:17I won't say any more.
18:19But changeable is definitely the word to describe the weather over the coming days.
18:24But, of course, you know, it has been very dry.
18:27I was taking a look at the rainfall amounts for October so far.
18:31Many areas have still seen drier-than-average conditions.
18:35Not so much across the northwest.
18:38Here, more around average for the time of year, I'd say.
18:40It needs to be around 87% at this point of the month to be around average.
18:45But you can see many of these brown shaded areas are below average for the time of year.
18:52So, it might feel like the weather's changed.
18:54It's been quite showery at times.
18:56But, actually, in terms of average rainfall for October, we're still below average.
19:00So, it has still been a very dry month.
19:03So, although you might not be pleased to see the rain, it is very welcome rain in many areas.
19:08But, of course, it will be next week where we'll have the full October stats for you to take a look at what's actually happened across different regions so far this October.
19:18So, quite a lot happening over the coming days.
19:21I'm going to finish off with this satellite image of Melissa.
19:26Definitely one to watch.
19:27And I'm sure we'll be updating you across our social media channels as this storm begins to intensify.
19:33But, obviously, our hearts go out to people in Jamaica and everywhere across the Caribbean that's going to be affected by this storm.
19:40I'm sure we'll see it in quite a lot of our news headlines.
19:42So, if you do have any further questions around this storm, please drop them in the comments box.
19:48It's me and Alex Burke here on my last live this Friday.
19:51So, if you do have any questions, drop them in the comments below.
19:54And we can take a look and perhaps answer some of those on Friday.
19:57But, otherwise, I hope you've enjoyed my final deep dive.
20:02Thank you so much for all your lovely comments that I've had this year.
20:06It really has been the confidence boost I needed in order to do these videos because this is probably the one I was worried about the most.
20:12But, yeah, thank you so much for all your lovely comments.
20:14I do read them and some of them really do make me smile.
20:17So, yeah, thank you so much for those.
20:19I'll miss doing them, actually.
20:20Even though I was quite scared to do them in the first place, I will actually miss them.
20:24But, as I say, it's bittersweet and we're going to see a bit more of Annie by the time we have next week.
20:31Also, two weeks from Friday, oh, no, yes.
20:34No, a week on Friday, it's also going to be a year anniversary of our Weather Studio Live.
20:39And we're going to have all the presenters on doing one big final quiz.
20:42So, that will definitely be one to watch as well.
20:45But, if you've enjoyed this video, please do give it a like.
20:48As I say, do drop any comments or questions below.
20:51Otherwise, I hope you have a very good week and I'll see you very soon.