00:00Samantala, paggalaw sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo ngayong linggo at ang inaasahang oil price outlook ngayong Pasko at Bagong Taon,
00:08ating alamin kasama si Director Rino Abad ng Oil Industry Management Bureau ng Department of Energy.
00:15Director Abad, magandang tanghali po at welcome sa Bagong Pilipinas ngayon.
00:22Magandang tanghali, Music Marge, Asek Chowee at sa ating mga viewers po.
00:30Sir, ano po ang pangunahing dahilan ng taas po ng presyo sa gasolina ngayong December 9?
00:35May nangyari po ba sa international oil market o may internal factors po ba sa Pilipinas na nakaapekto po dito?
00:45Well, supposedly, ang trend at kalalabas lang ang report ng International Energy Agency.
00:54At saka yung sinundan ho yan ang U.S. Energy Information Administration,
01:02magka-pareho na ho ang projection na by next year, makakaroon niya ho ng oversupply ng oil.
01:08So, ibig sabihin ho, malakas ho ang chance na pababa ho ang trend.
01:14So, ito ngayon parang nasasabit ng konti pa yung gasoline sa pag-i-increase ng konti.
01:23But if you look at the trend for the past two weeks,
01:26pababa na ho talaga yung last week,
01:29nagkaroon ho tayo ng rollback at this week mayroong no adjustment.
01:34But malakas ho talaga ang chance na papunta na ho tayo sa pagkakaroon ng declining price.
01:42Brought about by projection na magkakaroon ng oversupply na first quarter of 2026.
01:49Mayroon lang ho ang dalawang major factor na talagang kumokontra doon.
01:55Unang-una yung persistent problem with Ukraine and Russia.
02:00Ang perception ho is, tuloy-tuloy ang failure,
02:08yung unsustained plan to settle the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
02:15At dahil dito, tuloy-tuloy ang sanction ng US at Europe
02:19na ang latest projection ng JP Morgan Chase
02:26na nababalam, hindi nakakalabas yung around 1.4 million barrels per day
02:33of oil export to the market ng Russia.
02:38So malaking bagay ho yun.
02:40Ang iniisip po natin yung forecast ng International Energy Agency
02:45na oversupply is around 3 to 4 million by the first quarter per day.
02:51For the first quarter of 2026, nababawasan ho yun ng ganun kalaki,
02:551.4 million barrels per day from Russia.
02:59At ongoing ho yung Venezuela problem.
03:02Venezuela is contributing of a production of around 1.1 million barrels of oil per day.
03:08Hindi pa ho, klaro ngayon, kung ilang volume out of that per day na oil,
03:141.1 million, ang naapektuhan sa ongoing, well, geopolitical issue with US.
03:23Basically, which most of the analysts sa oil,
03:28nag-expect na pag hindi na settle, will end up with a sanction na naman kay US.
03:35So itong dalawang factor, halimbawa mga half of that 1.1 million,
03:41ang nag-offset lang ho sa sana sa tuloy-tuloy na magandang supply,
03:48oversupply balance versus the demand,
03:51which benefits us as buyers, no?
03:54Itong bansang Pilipinas, gumibili tayo.
03:57Pag ganyan, maganda ho ang pagkitaan doon sa supply,
04:00maganda rin ho ang in-expect na price, no?
04:04Pababa ang price.
04:05So, yan ho ang sitwasyon natin.
04:08At for now, tuloy naman ang usapan sa Ukraine-Russia,
04:13hindi yan tinitigilan ang possible peace talk.
04:18At yung Venezuela, ongoing pa ho ang conflict dito.
04:23At we hope na pag na-resolve ho yan, talagang dire-direts ho,
04:26we will be expecting a decline in price.
04:29Mas pag hindi ho, medyo yan ho ang magkukos ng problem sana sa tuloy-tuloy na pagbaba ng price.
04:36Director Rino, habang hindi pa po nare-resolve ba yung conflict sa Russia at Ukraine at yung US-Venezuela situation,
04:43nabanggit nyo nga na may projected oversupply sa first quarter ng 2026.
04:48So, ano yung inaasahan natin sa first month o sa sabihin natin hanggang February?
04:56Rollback ba or price hike?
04:59O depende talaga doon sa magiging resulta ng dalawang geopolitical situations?
05:05Sir Jorino, mataas talaga ang chance na nakababa ang price.
05:12Kasi na, fundamental yung, of course, International Energy Agency na ho yung nag-forecast
05:18na around 4 million barrels per day ay inaasahan na oversupply.
05:24In other words, ang dami yun yan.
05:26Ang dami ho talaga ng supply ng oil na wala ho tayong inaasahang problema sana sa supply
05:34and under 4, bababa talaga ang price.
05:36But, of course, nandyan ho talaga ang dalawa eh.
05:39Mga spoiler ho talaga yung dalawang major factors na yan.
05:43At yun nga, mataas ang chance na ng bababa.
05:48But, we don't expect na tuloy-tuloy because of these two problems, no?
05:54Anything that surfaces from these two factors,
06:00agaran ho din ang effect doon sa price.
06:03So, I would say na malakas ho ang trend, bababa.
06:09Pag minsan-minsan ho, pag meron ho matuloy na sanction,
06:12alam na ho natin, pag nag-sunction ho,
06:14kumiipikto ka agad sa price.
06:17Because of the speculation,
06:18kahit wala naman ho talaga ang effect doon sa fundamental supply,
06:23ilang beses na ho tayong naka-experience na by speculation,
06:27biglang tumataas ang price.
06:30If not sustained, bumababa din naman.
06:33But, of course, on the journey nung meron ho mga masamang balita,
06:40nagkakaroon ho talaga ng speculative impact doon sa pag-i-increase ng price.
06:44But, overall, ang fundamental ho natin,
06:48mababa ho, dapat ang price,
06:49pababa ho,
06:50kasi,
06:51ini-expecto talaga na mayroong maraming supply ng oil
06:54for the global market.
06:57Sir, gasolina lang po kasi yung tumataas,
06:59habang walang galaw sa diesel at kerosene.
07:02Sir, paano po ba yan na ipapaliwanag ng DOE
07:05ang pagkakaibang ito sa galaw po ng presyo sa petrolyo?
07:08At ano po ba yung estado ng supply ng diesel at kerosene?
07:12Medyo tricky na ho yan.
07:16We tried to have the definitive reports on per product.
07:22Medyo nahihirapan ho yung kasubscription natin,
07:25even flats.
07:26Yung flats mismo, yung SP Global Flats,
07:30hindi ho nila kaya i-really identify yung kanya-kanyang produkto.
07:36So, what we can do is really go to the trend of the crude oil,
07:40saka natin ina-apply sa finish product.
07:43So, ang nangyayari lang ho,
07:46mayroong konting pagkakaiba ng konti yung mga price movement
07:49ng bawat produkto,
07:51but on the overall side, yung crude oil,
07:54doon ho talaga definitive yung movement
07:56because we're just talking about
07:58three major benchmark,
08:00yung Dubai,
08:02Brandt, at saka WTI.
08:04So, very clear yung trend ng tatlo.
08:07Hindi ho yan nag-iiba-iba.
08:09They refer to one product,
08:11which is crude oil.
08:12Pag-finish product ho,
08:14for example,
08:14if you're on the side of Asia-Pacific,
08:18na hindi naman ho tayo dumadaan sa summertime
08:20at biglang magkakaroon ng winter period,
08:23eh, hindi ho masyadong magalaw yung ating trend.
08:27So, if you notice,
08:29pag medyo pababa ng konti,
08:31pataas-pataas ng konti.
08:33In the case of U.S.,
08:35for example,
08:35during the summer period,
08:37mula April hanggang September siguro,
08:41malakas yung gamit talaga na sa gasoline.
08:43So, hindi tayo sumusunod doon,
08:46pero umi-increase sa kanila.
08:48Masyadong umi-increase sa kanila yung gasoline na.
08:50So, in this case,
08:51sustained lang ho tayo,
08:53but in the case of U.S.,
08:55for example,
08:55they're really declining sa gasoline price
08:59kasi wala na yung summer period
09:01na malaki talaga ang gamit doon sa mga vehicle,
09:04maraming gamit sa vehicle.
09:07Tayo dito,
09:08sustained
09:08ang lahat ng produkto
09:11all year round.
09:12So, it's so happy na ngayon,
09:14medyo,
09:15mataas lang ng konti ang gasolina,
09:17but we still believe na later on,
09:19it will catch up with the trend of diesel
09:21and kerosene na pababa na rin.
09:23So, meron lang natitira
09:25ng increase,
09:27pero pababa na rin ho
09:28ang trend ng price ng gasolina.
09:30Director Reno,
09:32alam ko na pasadahan natin ito
09:33nung huling pag-uusap natin.
09:35Historically po ba,
09:37tumataas ang presyo ng krudo
09:39kapag Pasko,
09:41pero kung whether oo o hindi,
09:43paano po kung may namantala
09:45o magsamantala sa sitwasyon
09:47at mag-overprice po,
09:49i-manipulate nila yung price?
09:51Ano pong gagawin ng DOE?
09:53Well, in the case of,
09:57in the case sa Asia-Pacific region,
10:00specifically ko ang pinag-uusapan
10:02yung market ng China,
10:05Singapore,
10:06papuntang ASEAN countries,
10:08hindi ho tayo masyadong affected
10:09nung trend ng season,
10:13seasonality of price trend
10:15based on seasonality of the months.
10:19Again, yung Northern Hemisphere countries,
10:22subject ko sila dyan.
10:24Kasi during summer,
10:25talagang maraming gumagamit.
10:27During winter,
10:28kong tiyan gumagamit.
10:29Pero baliktad ang effect.
10:31Sa kanila naman,
10:31tumataas din ang LPG.
10:33So, dito sa atin,
10:35since limited ang LPG supply,
10:38naapektoan ho tayo.
10:39Kaya ngayon,
10:41papuntang March,
10:43we will be expecting
10:44na pa-increase ang LPG.
10:45But sa gasolina ho,
10:47predominantly,
10:48talagang affected lang ho yan
10:50sa crude oil,
10:52sa crude oil price trend,
10:55oversupply,
10:56undersupply,
10:57ng balance,
11:00and then,
11:00of course,
11:01yung geopolitical issues
11:02pag may lumalabas
11:05ng mga,
11:05predominantly,
11:06ng mga sanction.
11:07At usually,
11:08ang sanction dito,
11:09nanggagaling,
11:10wala hong ibang bansa,
11:11kundi US at saka Europe,
11:13palagi lang ho,
11:14yung dalawang yan
11:15ang mahilig mga sanction.
11:17So,
11:18overall,
11:19sir,
11:19Joey,
11:20trend on season-based,
11:23na trend ng price
11:25ng liquid fuel,
11:27gasoline,
11:27diesel,
11:28ang kerosene,
11:28hindi mo masyadong affected
11:29yung ASEAN region.
11:33Probably,
11:34in Northern Hemisphere countries,
11:36affected sila.
11:37But we are,
11:38because of the limited supplier
11:39of LPG,
11:41we are affected.
11:41Ang malaki ho yung supplier dyan,
11:43galing pa rin ng crude oil,
11:45at
11:45ang affected ho,
11:47na gumagamit yan,
11:48globally,
11:49at tayo yung nadadala doon sa price,
11:51ay yung LPG.
11:52So, admittedly,
11:53hanggang March,
11:55medyo may
11:55elevated ho
11:57ang price natin sa LPG.
11:58But,
11:59but the liquid fuel,
12:00wala,
12:01sasayaw lang ho yan,
12:02sa trend,
12:03kung anong nangyayari,
12:04on a daily basis doon sa global market.
12:07Director Rino,
12:08dahil ito na po yung
12:09ikalawang sunod na linggo
12:10ng taas presyo,
12:12ano-ano ang mga
12:12rekomendasyon ng DOE
12:14sa motorista
12:14at transport groups
12:16para makatipid po
12:17sa consumption?
12:21Okay,
12:22in the past two weeks,
12:23last week,
12:25nag-decrease po tayo,
12:27but today,
12:28ngayong week,
12:30wala ho tayong increase,
12:31walang adjustment
12:32doon sa diesel
12:33ang kerosene.
12:34May increase lang ho tayo
12:35admittedly
12:36for the past two weeks
12:36doon sa gasoline.
12:38Pero,
12:38paliit ng paliit ho yan,
12:39pababa ng pababa.
12:41Sa ating mga consumer ho,
12:42well,
12:44ang unang ho
12:45na rating
12:46nakikita
12:47ang mga benefits
12:48na direct
12:49doon sa kanilang
12:50fuel use
12:51at fuel cost nila
12:53ay i-avail ho talaga
12:55yung direct
12:56na mga binibigay
12:58na fuel subsidy
12:59ng mga oil companies.
13:01Meron ho talaga dyan,
13:03tinapahalagahan ho
13:04yung mga
13:05PUVs
13:06na magkaroon ho
13:07ng discount.
13:08So,
13:08maraming gasoline station
13:10o maabot ho
13:10ng 5 peso per liter
13:12ang binibigay
13:13doon sa PUVs.
13:14Doon sa private motorist,
13:16usually,
13:17ano,
13:18yung loyalty cards,
13:19meron ho mga
13:20discount
13:22na binibigay.
13:23If at all,
13:24meron direct
13:25pero kadamihan ho
13:26based sa loyalty cards.
13:28So,
13:29either you download
13:29the app
13:30ng oil company
13:31or you get
13:32a card
13:32to use it
13:33para makakuha
13:34kayo ng points
13:36or a direct discount
13:38on a per liter basis.
13:40Pero ang mga PUV ho,
13:41directa ho,
13:42kadamihan ho
13:43ng kausap namin
13:44at na-arrange ito
13:45with the oil companies,
13:46karamihan ho sa kanila,
13:48directa talagang
13:48bawas
13:49doon sa
13:50per liter
13:51na ginagastos
13:53ng mga
13:53PUV drivers
13:55natin
13:56on the selected
13:57gasoline station.
13:58So,
13:59mapagmatyag ho
14:00na lang po
14:00ang ating mga
14:01PUV drivers.
14:02Pumili ho sila
14:03ng gasoline station
14:04na merong
14:04binibigay
14:06ng mga discount
14:07na direct
14:08doon sa kanilang
14:09fuel na kailangan,
14:11usually diesel.
14:13Director,
14:13nabanggit nyo kanina
14:14yung LPG.
14:16Ano po yung
14:16aasahan
14:17ng ating mga kababayan
14:18na magiging
14:19takbo ng trend.
14:21Sabi nyo kanina
14:21baka hanggang
14:22March may pagtaas.
14:23So,
14:24habang papalagpit po
14:25yung Pasko
14:26at bagong taon,
14:26mga magkano po
14:27kaya yung
14:28maidadagdag sa presyo,
14:30lalo na kasi
14:30siyempre
14:30mag-no-noche buena,
14:32mag-media noche.
14:33Sir Joey,
14:36ang kaibahan
14:37sa liquid fuel,
14:39weekly ho ang adjustment
14:40na nakasanayan natin.
14:43But on the LPG,
14:45it's a monthly
14:46adjustment.
14:47So,
14:49once they adjust
14:50for the beginning
14:50of the month,
14:52effective lang ho
14:52ang price na yun.
14:53Walang galawan
14:54hanggang end of the month.
14:56So,
14:56ang inasahan na lang
14:57ho natin dito
14:58kasi tapos na ho
14:59ang December.
15:00So,
15:01January ho,
15:02February and March.
15:04Sa tatlong buwan na yan,
15:05we're still expecting
15:06na may trend ho
15:07ng pagtaas.
15:10But,
15:11come April
15:12hanggang September
15:13naman ho
15:13of next year,
15:16sunod-sunod naman ho
15:17talaga yan,
15:18pababaan naman ang price.
15:19So,
15:20we'll be expecting
15:20na three more months.
15:22Ang inasahan natin
15:24na mayroong
15:25mga paggalaw
15:26at malakas ho
15:27ang chance na
15:28ang paggalaw
15:28ay pataas ho.
15:29Al-Frice.
15:31Okay.
15:32Maraming salamat po
15:33sa inyong oras,
15:34Director Rino Abad
15:35ng Oil Industry Management
15:37Bureau ng Department
15:38of Energy.
