00:02It looks like we're in for a big El Nino this year.
00:05Here's the Southern Oscillation Index, which measures El Nino events via air pressure anomalies
00:10between Tahiti and Darwin.
00:12Anything below minus seven is an El Nino, and 1983, 1997 and 2015 were big ones, accompanied
00:21by terrible droughts.
00:232026 is already at that level.
00:25In fact, this year is looking worse than 1997 and 2015.
00:31Separately, 2026 looks like being the hottest year on record, with the global average temperature
00:37already reaching the 1.5 degrees of warming that was the maximum everyone agreed to at
00:43the Paris Climate Conference in 2015.
00:46Now even the most optimistic forecast is for 1.9 degrees of warming by 2050.
00:51But, if the countries that signed the Paris deal just meet their pledges and targets,
00:57warming will be 2.2 degrees, not 1.5 or even 1.9.
01:02If only the targets are met, not pledges, it'll be 2.6 degrees.
01:06And if countries keep doing what they're currently doing, that is continue with existing policies
01:12and actions, we're heading for as much as 2.9 degrees of warming.
01:17Europe and North America are already experiencing what 1.5 degrees of warming feels like.
01:22So double that.
01:24Preparing for the result of what the world is heading for now should obviously be the focus
01:28of policy, not hoping something will change.
01:31It's partly about insurance.
01:34APRA recently published an insurance scenario analysis, estimating that with 1.8 degrees
01:39of warming, 26% of Australian households won't be able to afford insurance by 2050.
01:46That's a million more than are uninsured now.
01:49And that's only with 1.8 degrees, which we're not far off.
01:52This year's El Niño is likely to be a preview of what's coming.
01:55And fires from it could bring that number of uninsured forward.
01:59Can we really have a million Australian families uninsured?
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