00:00You know, Joe, when we get to really breaking down a lot of these divisions, the AFC North is super
00:06interesting.
00:07I'm not high on the Ravens, especially at that price, a coaching change, a coordinator change.
00:12Out of nowhere, do the Bengals have the most stability, seemingly, out of any team in this division?
00:18The Browns with a new coach, and listen, the Browns' future may be good, especially with some of the young
00:22offensive talent that they have,
00:24but out of nowhere, the Bengals look like a decent bet at this point.
00:28Listen, nothing says watch out like Deshaun Watson being named your starting quarterback if you are the Browns.
00:36I mean, come on, Tom.
00:37You want to talk about inside track to maybe two wins.
00:41I don't know what the Browns are doing.
00:43I am not a big believer in Baltimore.
00:45I think that is a wait-and-see approach.
00:49Pittsburgh is a 500 team.
00:51They were a 500 team with Tomlin for the last three or four.
00:54They're going to be a 500 team with McCarthy one way or the other.
00:57To me, the Bengals are fascinating because if you can not and avoid going 0-4 in September, Tom,
01:06which they have loved to do, and you can keep Burrow upright,
01:11I think they're a team that could head into the middle of October, the end of October, Tom,
01:16and you know what?
01:17They could be your leader in the clubhouse there by the time we hit November 1st.
01:22I love the offense.
01:23I'm not asking a ton from the defense.
01:26Just don't beat yourselves.
01:28If you keep Burrow healthy, I think that offense averages 30 a game.
01:33And I've said this for a couple years at this point.
01:36When it comes to Burrow, you just need to protect him.
01:38Don't have a bottom five offensive line.
01:40Be middle of the road.
01:41You don't have to be the best offensive line.
01:43You don't have to be the Lions or the Eagles from recent years.
01:45And when it comes to the defense, don't be bottom five.
01:48Be middle of the road.
01:50Don't give up 30 points a game.
01:51If you give up 24, you can probably win most of those games with that offense.
01:56You don't need to be the Iron Curtain.
01:58You don't need to be the Steel Curtain, 86 Bears.
02:01Just be good enough, and Burrow will get you enough wins.
02:06Running game, receivers, tight end.
02:09Offensive line, they have invested.
02:11I'll give them this.
02:12They had to deal with some injuries.
02:14They've upgraded the offensive line.
02:17Keep Burrow healthy, and that team will score with the best of them in the NFL.
02:22The defense, listen, the defense, we don't need you to be the 2005 Ravens.
02:29Like, nobody's looking for Ray Lewis to come running through that door.
02:33But just don't beat yourselves.
02:35Don't give up 40 a game.
02:37And I think they're going to be okay, because I don't expect a lot from the Steelers.
02:41I don't know how convinced you are with the Ravens, but I think there's, you know, the jury is out
02:48in a lot of what they've done so far over the last year.
02:52You know, for the Ravens, I think a lot of people want to buy into them from a raw talent
02:57perspective on the roster.
02:58And whether it's offense, defense, and you have true game changers on both offense and defense, Kyle Hamilton, obviously, is
03:06fantastic.
03:07And what Lamar brings and what Derek Henry brings, like, these players are great.
03:11But are we getting enough from the coaching staff?
03:14Do they have enough experience?
03:15Can they weather the storm of a slow start?
03:18Are they going to hit the ground running?
03:19Like, there's too much uncertainty with the Ravens.
03:22And the range of outcomes for them is, could they not win the division and still make the playoffs with
03:26a wild card?
03:27Sure.
03:27Will it take a little bit of time for them to get going?
03:29Maybe.
03:30But at that price, at minus 112, you can't be betting into a team on a first-year head coach.
03:36Like, there are better bets to make.
03:37And I would say, if you're truly excited about the Ravens, you could bet on them for a conference.
03:42You could bet on maybe an alt win total.
03:44If you truly think they just hit the ground running and there's no bumps in the road, you can bet
03:48them for 12-plus wins or just some alts.
03:51But don't bet on them at a minus-money price for a division when there's other bets to make for
03:55them.
03:56Well, and they were another one, Tom, if you recall.
03:59They were another team that kind of had to remake that offensive line.
04:03They had a ton of injuries.
04:04And their center is now out for the season.
04:08Pinter is out for the season.
04:09So, once again, injuries up and down the offensive line for the Ravens is not great.
04:15And I don't know about you.
04:17Are you sold on Lamar?
04:21I think it's the same thing as always.
04:23Could Harbaugh have been the biggest problem holding him back?
04:25What was Harbaugh the problem?
04:26I think so.
04:28I think it's part of both.
04:29Like, both things are true.
04:30Like, I think Lamar will always have counting stats.
04:33And he'll always be in the MVP conversation.
04:36But, you know, at the critical moments, like, we all can, you know, poke holes in all these players of
04:41what they do or what they don't do.
04:42And Harbaugh making bad choices in the playoffs and all those sorts of things.
04:44And maybe this is the best version of Lamar because he's free of this.
04:48He can now, you know, have a hand in shaping the offense and what they want to do and all
04:52these sorts of things, which is yet to be seen.
04:54But my point is, because of that, the range of outcomes for the Ravens is actually wider than people realize.
04:59Just because they're the frontrunner for the division doesn't mean that they're locked into, like, 11 or 12 wins.
05:04They could be an 8 or 9 win team and be, like, fighting for a wild card spot, you know,
05:09as Christmas rolls around.
Comments