00:00Melissa, how would you describe the state of negotiations right now?
00:04Yes, I mean, it has been quite the past couple of days.
00:08You know, last Wednesday, it seemed that we would have a deal between Canada and the U.S.
00:14And then as of Friday, you know, those talks fell apart seemingly at the 11th hour.
00:20And so now the feeling here in Canada is very much of defiance, ready to, you know,
00:27hit back against the U.S. and kind of digging in for a fight.
00:32How long could this fight go on?
00:35So according to reporting from our colleague Josh Wingrove, you know,
00:39there is openness to resuming the discussions.
00:45But, you know, Canadian officials are also getting ready for something that might not,
00:50talks not resuming until after the midterms or even until President Trump leaves office.
00:56So, you know, earlier today, you played that clip of Prime Minister Carney.
01:01He did say that Canada is open to returning to the negotiating table if Canada is treated with respect.
01:10And we did also hear from Vice President J.D. Vance and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant,
01:16both of whom sort of hinted that under the right conditions, talks could resume.
01:20So, you know, hope is not lost.
01:23But certainly there are, you know, it's not anything scheduled or immediate at the moment.
01:29And does the threat of 50 percent tariffs starting on January 1st, that's months from now.
01:35That is after the midterm elections.
01:36Does that buy time for these two countries to actually work out a plan before then?
01:42It does seem to.
01:43And the thought, you know, is that given all that time,
01:48there is this understanding of how important the auto industry is to both countries
01:53and how much of an effect putting those tariffs on Canadian autos would have on both countries and on the
02:00U.S.
02:00So potentially that is the thought.
02:03We never know what's what's in President Trump's head.
02:06But, yes, we did observe certainly that there is quite a bit of time before that could take effect.
02:12But also anything can happen.
02:14Melissa, that headline 50 percent tariff number sounds economically seismic.
02:18But the measures cover only about 5 percent of Canada's exports to the U.S.
02:22And that doesn't even count some of the strategically important products like energy, critical minerals.
02:27How much damage is this likely to cause and where will it be felt most sharply?
02:32Yes.
02:33So let's just make sure we're talking about the 50 percent tariffs that came into effect on Saturday.
02:39And so, yes, that actually affects sort of a wide variety of Canadian goods, but not big, big sectors in
02:47and of themselves.
02:48So wigs are among them, hockey sticks, plywood.
02:52And so it's sort of it's a very interesting list.
02:55And that makes it very difficult to kind of it's not a huge number in and of itself.
03:02The one estimate from a University of Calgary professor is that it will be about 90,000 jobs that would
03:09be affected, which is 0.4 percent of the working population.
03:13And so that would only be if the tariffs were to continue for quite some time.
03:19So but it's a lot of small businesses.
03:22It's very hard to help those small businesses because, you know, you don't necessarily know who they are.
03:27And some of the supports that have been out there have really been aimed at large sectors like autos, like
03:31steel and aluminum.
03:33Well, talk to me a bit about the political support for Carney.
03:37I mean, is it something that you think is durable, especially when we start to see economic costs rise?
03:43It's a great question.
03:44And just to sort of bring it back a little bit, you know, as soon as the threat of tariffs
03:49against Canada came into effect early last year and as well, the commentary about Trump annexing Canada, making it the
03:5851st state.
03:58That's when Canadians really started to listen and started to, you know, boycott products, limit or eliminate travel to the
04:08U.S. whenever possible.
04:09So this movement that Canadians have been doing has been happening for more than a year now, about a year
04:15and a half.
04:16And that is waxed and waned, of course, as also the talks of waxed and waned.
04:21As of now, there was a flash poll done over the weekend that found about three in four Canadians support
04:27the direction that Mark Carney, Prime Minister Mark Carney, is going in.
04:31And but to your point, if the economic pain continues for quite some time, you know, the cost of living
04:39is as expensive here as it is in the U.S.
04:42And at some point, it is sort of important to look at the pocketbook effect.
04:47And it can be sometimes more expensive to buy local or to spend money within Canada.
04:54And so it just really will depend in terms of the reaction, how long this pain goes on.
05:00We should note, too, Prime Minister Mark Carney did serve as the chairman of the board of directors for Bloomberg
05:05LP starting in August of 2023.
05:08He left that position when he ran for prime minister.
05:12I just want to point to, in the last minute that we have, a post on social media that the
05:17president posted earlier today.
05:19He said, Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years.
05:22Their ridiculously high tariffs on our farmers and farm products has made life impossible for these great American patriots
05:27and has long created a $60 billion deficit between our two countries.
05:31I'm not going to have you fact check this one.
05:33But for people who are having trouble keeping up with what this is about, is it about this?
05:40Is it about wildfire smoke?
05:41Like, what are the issues here?
05:45Great question.
05:46I think a lot of the negotiators might be asking themselves the same question.
05:50Yes, there's a lot of longstanding irritants between Canada and the U.S., it seems, despite the fact that we
05:57do have a free trade agreement that Trump signed in 2020 himself in his previous term.
06:03You know, you mentioned dairy.
06:05You mentioned wildfire smoke.
06:06There's also some issues that came up at the last minute in the negotiations regarding trucks and whether they would
06:13be tariff exempt.
06:15As Prime Minister Carney mentioned, the U.S. seemingly wants to remove autos and steel and aluminum as areas in
06:24which Canada can thrive.
06:25So, it just seems that there are various issues that have come to light, French language requirements.
06:33So, you know, which is the most important one?
06:36We're not really sure.
