00:00digital assets have reclaimed three trillion dollars in market value for the first time going
00:03back to january bitcoin sitting just now above eighty six thousand dollars for bitcoin strive
00:09ceo matt cole writes our base case for bitcoin through 2030 is 50 percent compound annual
00:16growth rate we believe that is conservative joining us for exclusive is matt himself matt
00:22why is 50 compound annual growth rate conservative for bitcoin well first good to see you uh there's
00:31there's really two reasons and so one of them is a backward looking metric so looking at bitcoin in
00:38every historical bull run off of its uh 200 week moving average and so obviously right now bitcoin
00:44is already off of its 200 week moving average but when it goes off of its 200 week moving average
00:49into a bull market uh the annual cager for the next three to four years looking forward has never
00:56been less than 60 and so we adjusted that slightly given that it's already above its 200 week moving
01:03average but the more important thing because the past is not always indicative of the future is what
01:09is this current macro setup look like and how does it compare to as an example the 2022 2023 bear
01:16market
01:17into the 2024 2025 bull market and our view is that this set of macro conditions is substantially better
01:24for bitcoin than this last bull market was and so we anchored to that last uh bull market which would
01:31be
01:31right now around a 50 percent cager into uh 2030 which would put bitcoin in the 400 to 500 000
01:38range but
01:39then we looked at those fundamentals and the fundamentals primarily being our base case that we think the
01:44dollar will be substantially weaker because scott vicent the head of the treasury will be the house
01:50as he said he's the house we think he will over the course of the next couple years constrain the
01:56ability for long-end rates to move substantially higher although i don't think he's done enough yet
02:00and the release that will be the dollar and bitcoin will reclaim its role as the fastest horse versus
02:05gold and it will go to the moon matt you've brought aggressively as bitcoin rallied at what point
02:11does it stop being accretive to your shareholders so on on a short-term basis for our company we try
02:18to increase the amount of bitcoin each shareholder owns and so we are perpetual bitcoin bulls because
02:24we think the u.s government will not fix the debt crisis until something breaks and so i guess i
02:30would
02:30say until something breaks explicitly with the debt crisis in the united states our view is that probably no
02:37bitcoin price is too high because we think bitcoin can effectively go to infinity versus the dollar
02:42it does not mean that one bitcoin will buy you all of manhattan right there's going to be a real
02:47purchasing power of that in this debasement trade that we are in but we do think even on a real
02:52basis
02:53bitcoin will be worth substantially more than it is today what what has to break like you said until
02:57something breaks like like lay out the scenario for us yeah so the dollar has to break and the dollar
03:04has
03:04to break because of the debt crisis the united states fiat currencies have to break this is not
03:09a dollar specific problem it's a problem in japan it's it's a problem in europe it's a problem in china
03:14as well and so the question becomes when you look at long-term rates is that with the debt levels
03:21of
03:21the united states today debt gdp obviously well above 100 percent with the spending continuing the debt
03:27continuing to pile up what would be the natural rate of the 10-year treasury as an example if the
03:33fed
03:34owned nothing if the fed and the treasury were not intervening and i think when you combine it all
03:39together you would likely see 10-year yields right now north of 10 percent that would be if the fed
03:44didn't
03:44own more than 25 percent if you didn't have the cent trying to cap long-term rates and so you
03:49have a
03:49constrained long-term interest rate on u.s government debt and and the release valve has to be the dollar
03:56you either can let the free markets decide the rates and then the dollar will remain strong or you
04:02don't but ultimately what matters is spending and we know that whether you're republican or democrat
04:07dc does not stop spending matt for the last few months we've we've been asking the question about
04:12like does the treasury model still exist like is this still something that exists in a so-called crypto
04:21winter does this rally mean that the digital asset treasury model is back
04:28it i don't think it ever broke if you look at strive as an example we never sold a single
04:34bitcoin
04:34we were buying bitcoin all throughout the bear market uh strategy was a net acquire of bitcoin during
04:40the bear market as well i think what you saw was an explosion of bitcoin treasury strategies that never
04:46found their footing that launched right into a bear market and some of them had bad debt terms some of
04:52them
04:52had not fully identified their thesis and and so i think out of this bear market i do think that
04:57you
04:58will see some of those companies emerge with the thesis they still have bitcoin they they're it was
05:03still early for them you will see companies that have kind of established themselves as having executed
05:08well from through the bear market like strive that now command a premium and are buying you know
05:13pretty large amounts of bitcoin on a weekly basis and kind of everything in between i think you'll still
05:18see some that probably will not succeed but i think that some of them will and i think it will
05:22surprise
05:22some people what about the sec innovation exemption matt that allows platforms to trade tokenized version
05:27of u.s equities and if you're an investor would you view treasury companies as less relevant because
05:34why would you want to own maybe let's say strive when you can just own the real thing on chain
05:40i mean why would you want to own dollars when you can own a company that tries to take dollars
05:44and
05:44earns more dollars i think the question becomes do you trust the management team to actually deliver
05:50you more dollars if you're a normal company more bitcoin if you're a bitcoin company more name your
05:56crypto if you're a crypto treasury company and and that ultimately will come down to execution and so
06:02what you see with normal companies is that when a management team has a track record of delivering
06:08success that that commands a premium and so i think that that is ultimately the question and i think that
06:13the
06:13financing terms that are available to a company so like strive where we sell sata pays 13 every day
06:21which meets the cash flow needs of so many people if bitcoin goes up north of 13 per year we
06:27will
06:28structurally outperform bitcoin and that's what you've seen so as an example this year 2026 strive
06:34has outperformed bitcoin by over 100 bitcoin is basically flat and strive has delivered a return
06:39of over 100 we've also outperformed bitcoin since the inception of our strategy but ultimately what
06:44matters is forward-looking results and i think we will have we've shown we have the flywheel working
06:49to continue to buy bitcoin in a way that generates a bitcoin yield for our shareholders matt are you in
06:54just drive jim right now
06:55you
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