00:00We had mentioned it last hour, Bears repeating,
00:03Tom and I are not buying Cal Raleigh in the home run market tonight.
00:07We think the K market is better.
00:09I think he strikes out a few times.
00:11But it's Aaron Nola for the Phillies, and it's Kirby for the Mariners.
00:16And, boy, it feels like this is a good bounce-back spot for the Phillies in this one.
00:23But they'll need Aaron Nola to do his part here.
00:26They really will, and Nola's been pretty good.
00:30I have been low on Nola since the start of the season.
00:34I actually have an under on his season-long strikeout prop,
00:36which is going to come down to the wire.
00:38But I have not been a believer in Nola from the beginning of the season
00:41through the middle of the season.
00:43And all of a sudden, recently, Aaron Nola kind of looks like his old self,
00:47kind of looks pretty good.
00:48Over the last three days, he's got 2-5-1 ERA, which is pretty darn good.
00:51His strikeouts are over 10K per nine.
00:54His walks are relatively under control.
00:57The home runs are still an issue for him.
00:581.88 home runs per nine over the last 30 days for Nola is still a slight issue for him.
01:03But, frankly, you know, when I'm betting on the Phillies tonight, which I am,
01:07I'm going to be on their money line.
01:08I'm not betting on just Nola.
01:10I'm betting on the totality of the Phillies.
01:11I want that offense also going up against the Mariners pitching staff in Kirby,
01:15who has not been good as of late.
01:18He is not.
01:20And it's been a really crazy season for them.
01:23But I do think a little night's sleep here.
01:26Philadelphia will be right back in action here tonight.
01:29I certainly like that play.
01:31Again, the West has been terrible.
01:34But the Texas Rangers have won, what, four of their last five or five of their last six.
01:41And they've got the White Sox again.
01:44Jacob DeGrom against Anthony Kaye here.
01:46And the White Sox have just fallen back down to earth here a little bit.
01:50But can we trust the Red Sox offensively now?
01:56After last night's explosion for the Rangers,
01:59it's still tough to trust them on a night-in, night-out basis.
02:02A seven-and-a-half total isn't super high.
02:05We're not dealing with any major win that would allow me to think that we're going to get a ton
02:11of home runs.
02:11I think DeGrom continues to cruise.
02:13He was great in his last outing.
02:15I wasn't high on him in his last night because that was his first start coming off of the tricep
02:19injury
02:19or tricep issue that he had, the tricep fatigue.
02:23I want to back the White Sox at home just because they've been so good at home overall in the
02:27season.
02:27But to your point, the White Sox have fallen back down to earth.
02:30I see this as a Rangers spot, but I'm not super confident.
02:34It's a lean for me tonight.
02:36It's not really a play.
02:38Yeah, Kaye has actually been much better than people think here for the White Sox.
02:43They've had a few guys that have really pitched and punched above their weight this season,
02:49but he has lost four of his last five at home here at Raid Field, but it was 2-0
02:56against the Braves on Thursday.
02:58It was a quality start for them.
03:00The under field, is it too low of an under, Tom?
03:03Well, maybe, you know, if you want to get, I would love the eight just to get a little bit
03:12of insurance
03:12just to get that push, you'd probably have to put in the alt line to pay the juice.
03:15It is 7.5 minus 124 to the under, so the juice would probably be in the 160, 175 range.
03:21But, you know, last night's game went over, tonight's game goes under.
03:25I think it could be as easy as that.
03:28Yeah, I think DeGrom did look really good last time out.
03:34What, 10 strikeouts I think he had against Houston, was it?
03:37He was lighting him up here.
03:39So if he is healthy, then yes, Texas has a great shot at at least beginning to pull away
03:46in this American League West division, which nobody wants to seem to win, Tom,
03:52and it's getting uglier.
03:53And right now, if you had to make a wager, as you can see the odds there, who's it on?
04:00To me, it's still on the Rangers.
04:01I've said it throughout the season.
04:03I have a future on the Rangers to make the playoffs.
04:05It's only a plus 120.
04:07It's obviously not those plus 170 odds.
04:09I have, you know, a couple of paths out.
04:10But the way the Astros look, I can't buy into them.
04:15The Mariners, I've been, the Mariners have been dead to me for months at this point, essentially.
04:19They do have a very easy end of the season where they're playing the A's and they're
04:25playing the Angels and they have a series against the Rockies.
04:27So they do have a really easy road to end things.
04:30The Mariners, that would be.
04:32But I just can't buy into them right now.
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