Russia’s NATO Copy Just Went Up in Smoke

The Military Show

Become a Member Today and Unlock EXCLUSIVE Videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKfak8fBm_Lhy4eX9UKxEpA/join  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s declaration that his country would welcome expulsion from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) marks a fatal blow to Moscow's NATO equivalent and highlights the collapse of Russian security guarantees in Central Asia and the Caucasus.  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Nikol Pashinyan Welcomes Armenia CSTO Expulsion 01:16 - Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov Reacts to Armenia 02:33 - History of Russian CSTO Collective Security Alliance 03:49 - Armenia Freezes Reaction Force Contributions to CSTO 05:06 - Nikol Pashinyan Launches Armenia European Union Bid 06:23 - 54 Percent of Armenians Support EU Membership 07:39 - European Union Commits 60 Million Dollars to Armenia 08:56 - Russia Fails Security Guarantees in Syria and Iran 10:13 - Kazakhstan Distances Military Forces From CSTO Alliance 11:29 - Will Armenia CSTO Exit Collapse Putin Military Alliance?  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/XYD4P6dV

Transcript

00:01When Russia set up the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO, it thought it had found an answer to NATO,

00:08an equivalent collective defense agency with Russia at the core that would allow it to expand its influence in Europe

00:15and Central Asia.

00:16But the CSTO hasn't worked out the way Putin wants it to in the 2020s and it just took a

00:21major blow.

00:21Russia was trying to use CSTO expulsion to cajole Armenia into doing what Putin wants. Armenia's response? Go ahead and

00:30expel us.

00:31Russia's bad copy of NATO just went up in smoke and Armenia's answer to the Kremlin's threats has exposed that

00:37the organization isn't able to deliver on the one thing that Russia promised.

00:41On August 24th, the news broke that Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared that his nation would welcome expulsion from

00:49the CSTO.

00:49He claims that members of the CSTO, or probably more accurately just Russia, are already discussing this expulsion and that

00:57the organization's charter also allows for the expulsion of members.

01:02That part of the charter would have been put there by Russia as leverage against members, allowing the Kremlin to

01:07dangle the loss of security guarantees in front of any member who got out of line.

01:11To Russia, Armenia is a long way out of line by simply electing Pashinyan, who isn't shy about his pro

01:17-West platform in the first place.

01:19Now, Armenia's Prime Minister says whatever leverage Putin thinks that he has in his ramshackle copy of NATO isn't going

01:26to work.

01:26Before we dig deeper, are you enjoying our reporting? Subscribe and share your thoughts below.

01:31And if you'd like to support the real people behind the channel, consider becoming a member for exclusive content.

01:37Pashinyan's claims come after he announced that Armenia will continue the freeze on cooperation with the CSTO that it put

01:43in place back in February 2024,

01:45which he says was the result of Russia failing to protect Armenia during its recent conflicts with Azerbaijan.

01:52This theme of Russia failing as a security partner will come up again, so keep it in mind.

01:57Discussing his decision, Pashinyan said,

01:59I can say with certainty that we will not activate our work in the CSTO, we will not activate it.

02:05As he made his revelation that he knows that discussions about Armenia's expulsion are ongoing.

02:10I'll be very pleased if the organization decides to expel the Republic of Armenia from the collective security treaty organization,

02:16Pashinyan added, finishing off with a statement that will have really stung Putin.

02:20At least it will free us from the dilemma of not leaving.

02:23Those 12 words will feel like a dagger plunged into Putin's heart because they represent Armenia telling Russia that the

02:30CSTO isn't living up to its promises as a collective defense organization.

02:34In other words, Armenia simply doesn't view the CSTO as anywhere near as important as Moscow wants it to be.

02:40And to compound that pain, Russia will also know that Armenia's collective eyes have already been turned by a much

02:46more attractive option.

02:47Of course, Russia is trying to be nonchalant about the whole thing.

02:51Putin has already sent his favorite mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov out to basically say,

02:55Well, go on then, Russia doesn't care that you're leaving, honest.

02:58Or to use his actual words,

03:00If Yerevan no longer needs to be a member of such an important organization for ensuring regional security to serve

03:06its national interests,

03:07then it's free to take the appropriate decision and leave this organization.

03:11There's a hint of desperation in this comment, especially when Peskov speaks about the CSTO being an important organization.

03:17For ensuring regional security.

03:19Armenia says that the CSTO already failed at that with the Azerbaijan situation.

03:24So these words will ring pretty hollow.

03:26And it's not like the Azerbaijan situation is the only thing that Armenia has noticed.

03:30There are lots of countries that Russia has promised security to that have been finding out just how empty those

03:36promises are.

03:37And Armenia has seen it all.

03:39But we'll get to that.

03:40First, we need a little context on the CSTO.

03:42What it means, what it's supposed to do, and what it actually does.

03:46It all started in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse.

03:501991 saw Armenia secure its independence from Russia.

03:53Though at the time, it wasn't exactly ready to strike out on its own.

03:57Armenia retained close security ties with Russia.

03:59And it was one of the earliest members of the precursor to the CSTO, the Collective Security Treaty.

04:05Looks like Russia later popped organization onto the end in yet another example of it blatantly copying NATO.

04:11Others joined this treaty in the years that followed, including Georgia and Armenia's enemy Azerbaijan, which both became members in

04:181993.

04:19That would have rattled some Armenian cages even three-plus decades ago.

04:23But it's here where we already start to see problems with what would become the CSTO.

04:27Both Azerbaijan and Georgia chose to withdraw amidst negotiations to turn Russia's treaty into the organization that we see today.

04:35Uzbekistan has also had a fractured history with the CSTO and its precursor.

04:38It joined Russia's Collective Security Treaty but left in 1999.

04:43It then joined the CSTO in 2006 but chose to leave again in 2012.

04:47These are all hints that Russia's version of NATO wasn't delivering what it promised to its members.

04:52And just for a little bit of fun, do you want to take a guess at how many NATO members

04:56have chosen to leave once they're in?

04:57If you said zero, then ding ding ding, you're a winner.

05:02Even with all of this turmoil, Russia pushed ahead with the formation of the CSTO.

05:06The organization became official in 2002 with its original signatories being Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia.

05:15The organization was founded under principles similar to NATO, especially when it comes to collective defense.

05:21The CSTO has its own version of Article 5, through which an attack on one member is considered an attack

05:27on all.

05:28Member states also conduct joint military exercises and training to enhance their interoperability, just like NATO.

05:34And for a while, especially when Russia as the main member wasn't really being called upon to act as a

05:39security partner in any direct way, the CSTO worked.

05:42Back in 2013, Yulia Nikitina, who was part of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, noted that the CSTO

05:50maintained four core types of forces.

05:53Among them were a collective rapid deployment force with 4,000 members focusing on Central Asia, a large 20,000

06:00-person reaction force and a collective peacekeeping force containing 3,500 soldiers and 800 police officers.

06:06The first two are regional groups, one managed by Russia and Belarus, and the other overseen by Russia and Armenia.

06:14So Armenia's freezing of its contributions and willingness to leave are going to impact at least part of the CSTO,

06:20and maybe all of these force projections.

06:22Again, it's all very NATO-like, down to the point where a single member leaving could cause drastic changes in

06:28planning.

06:28Still, what the CSTO was supposed to offer, more than anything else, was a way for Russia to project its

06:33influence over the countries that became members,

06:36which, in turn, allows for the projection of influence over the regions where those nations are located.

06:41Members are supposed to have equal standing. Nominally, they do.

06:44In practice, Russia sits at the head of the table, as seen by Russia giving itself the power to block

06:49NATO operations that might involve CSTO members.

06:52This focus on Russia is the CSTO's main weakness. It shows us that the entire group is ultimately set up

06:58for the Kremlin's benefit.

07:00Again, that's fine if Russia can manage its part of the deal.

07:03CSTO members let Russia lead the way because Russia is supposed to be providing them with security guarantees.

07:09After all, none of the CSTO's members are major military powers.

07:12It's telling that Russia isn't really trying to rely on any of them outside of Belarus in its war against

07:17Ukraine, and Belarus is only in the fold because it borders Ukraine.

07:21The deal was simple. Russia provides the muscle, and the other CSTO members offer up regional influence.

07:28One part of that deal breaking down leads to the other failing, and that's precisely what we're seeing with the

07:33Armenia situation right now.

07:34And to make matters even worse for Russia, Armenia isn't just happy to leave the CSTO.

07:39It's also cozying up to the precise types of Western powers that the CSTO is supposed to keep away from

07:45the nation.

07:45If that becomes a trend among other CSTO nations, everything changes in Russia's NATO.

07:50Before we go further, you're watching The Military Show, and this is why we make videos to explain how power

07:56really moves.

07:56If you like what you see, make sure you subscribe and enable notifications.

08:01If Armenia saying it's happy to be expelled from the CSTO felt like a body blow for Putin, what Pashinyan

08:07said next would have felt like a haymaker to the jaw.

08:10On August 24th, Armenia's Prime Minister told Parliament that the country is soon going to launch its bid to join

08:15the European Union or EU.

08:18We may begin this process in the near future, especially given the urgent requests from our EA-EU partners, Pashinyan

08:24declared.

08:24Putin won't have liked hearing about these requests.

08:27They indicate that Russia is losing a pretty major partner, perhaps more important than he realized, to the EU.

08:33This discussion of Armenian accession is nothing new.

08:36The country's President, Varhan Kachchuryan, signed the law to formally begin the accession process back in April 2025,

08:43though the law gave no timeline for when that process would be completed.

08:46The EU met that news with happiness, as European Commission spokesperson Markus Lamert declared that

08:52Armenia is closer to the EU than ever before.

08:55Closer to the EU and much further away from Russia and Putin's poisonous influence.

09:00Just as with Armenia's hints that it will be happy with CSTO expulsion, Russia isn't happy about any of this.

09:06In the wake of Pashinyan's comments, Peskov was once again deployed to project nonchalance and deliver veiled warnings to Armenia

09:13that it needs to step back in line with Russia.

09:16Regarding the application for EU membership, I always recommend remembering the experience of Turkey and a number of other countries.

09:22Decades have passed since they submitted their applications, yet the situation remains largely unchanged, Peskov declared.

09:28This is desperate, even for the Kremlin.

09:31The reason why Turkey hasn't become an EU member is because of the deteriorating standards of the democratic process in

09:36the country,

09:37along with some very questionable decisions made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

09:41It contributes to these democracy-related issues and has also approved crackdowns on peaceful protests, which makes the EU wary.

09:48Armenia doesn't have these problems.

09:50If anything, its move away from Russia and ability to counteract Putin's misinformation campaigns and election tampering shows that it's

09:57a much stronger candidate for EU membership than Turkey right now.

10:00So if the Kremlin's strategy is to say,

10:03But look at Turkey, Armenia can simply reply,

10:06Exactly, we aren't Turkey.

10:08Russia's other strategy is to tell Pashinyan to call a referendum on Armenia's EU membership.

10:13Pashinyan has already told Putin back in July that such a referendum wouldn't be possible

10:17until Armenia starts its official bid to join the EU.

10:20That bid would make the topic substantive enough to justify a referendum, Pashinyan explains.

10:25The Kremlin sees things differently.

10:27It was notably emphasized that Armenia needed to promptly hold a national referendum on whether the country should join the

10:33EU or remain in the EAEU,

10:36Russia said following the July phone call when Pashinyan delivered his statement to Putin.

10:40The EAEU is the Eurasian Economic Union, and it's another block that Russia tries to use for regional control burden.

10:47There's a reason why the Kremlin wants a referendum to be called.

10:50Russia wants a chance to influence the results, making it seem as though the Armenian people don't want to be

10:55part of the EU.

10:57Russia has a hard job on its hands in that respect.

10:59According to opinion polls shared by EU neighbors East, the impression of the EU in Armenia is positive.

11:0672% of those poll described the relationship between Armenia and the EU as good,

11:11with 56% saying they trust the EU more than any other international actor, including Russia.

11:18The same poll also showed that 54% of Armenians support EU membership, which is notably up by 9%

11:24from the 2025 figures.

11:26Only 23% of Armenia's total population actively oppose EU membership.

11:31And of those quizzed, 63% believe the EU membership would deliver more benefits than drawbacks.

11:37So if Russia is relying on the tide of public opinion to take Armenia off the EU path and keep

11:42it as part of the CSDO,

11:43it has its work cut out for it.

11:45Not that Russia isn't willing to do the work.

11:47It tried to manipulate the elections that saw Pashinyan re-secure his place as Armenia's Prime Minister back in June.

11:53France 24 reports that Russia employed disinformation campaigns targeting Pashinyan throughout the election.

11:59That's according to a fact-checker with Armenian media outlet Civilnet, Annie Gregorian, who told France 24,

12:06When it comes to Russia, it's been almost one year that we noticed how they tried to influence the Armenian

12:10informational space.

12:12What's interesting is that the main target is not just Armenia and Pashinyan, but also the EU and France.

12:17For several months, they were disseminating narratives that France is going to help Armenia and Pashinyan to falsify the election

12:23results.

12:24The Institute for Strategic Dialogue adds that Russia deployed a trio of state-sponsored or Kremlin-aligned groups to target

12:31Armenia in the months leading up to its elections.

12:33One of the operations, dubbed Storm 1516, targeted Armenia between April 2025 and April 2026,

12:41and it involved setting up fake news and activism websites.

12:44The impersonation of real media outlets and journalists and the use of influencers on X to try to steer the

12:50social media narrative.

12:51These are all dirty tricks that Russia would try to employ again for an Armenian-EU referendum.

12:56No wonder Putin wants one. He already has all of this in place for round two.

13:01For its part, the EU is making it clear that Armenia will be a welcome member.

13:05In July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos met with Pashinyan to discuss

13:12how Armenia and the EU can build their ties.

13:14Armenia came away from that meeting with a $60 million commitment and a proposal for tariff-free access to 80

13:21% of Armenia's exports to the EU.

13:23In other words, far better trade deals than it has been getting from Russia, which wants to freeze Armenia out

13:28because Pashinyan isn't Putin's puppet.

13:31Kos's appearance at this meeting is also important.

13:33As the Commissioner for Enlargement, Kos oversees the growth of the EU.

13:38Armenia wants to be part of that growth and its Prime Minister is now meeting with the types of people

13:42who hold influence over Armenia's accession bid.

13:45All of this boils down to one thing for the Kremlin.

13:48It's being forced to watch as Armenia embraces the Western influence that the CSTO was supposed to serve as a

13:53barrier against.

13:55That, more than anything else, shows us that Russia's version of NATO is falling apart.

13:59It's all because of something that we touched on earlier.

14:02Russia has been exposed as a terrible security partner.

14:06The whole point of CSTO membership for any nation aside from Russia is that Russia is supposed to offer protection.

14:12The bad promise made by Russia has caused all of this and we're not just talking about Russia's failure to

14:17protect Armenia in the Azerbaijan situation.

14:19In the past couple of years, Russia has promised to support allies in Venezuela, Syria and Iran.

14:25What has happened? The dictatorial leaders of Venezuela and Syria have been deposed, with Russia barely raising a finger to

14:32help other than sending a few weapons.

14:34Iran is in an active war with the US and all Russia seems willing to do is offer some intelligence.

14:40Armenia has seen all of this and has reached the same conclusion that the Times reached with its sarcastic headline

14:45with friends like Putin who needs enemies.

14:48Russia's utter failure to deliver on its part of the CSTO deal is resulting in the Russian copy of NATO

14:54falling apart.

14:55And it's not just Armenia being willing to leave that's a factor here.

14:58Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has caused fractures in the organization, not least because every non-Russian member has seen

15:05how Putin responds when a smaller country than Russia doesn't do what Russia wants.

15:10CSTO members will also have seen Russia wage a war against Georgia, which was once a member of the CSTO

15:16precursor, so it's not like CSTO membership is any sort of security guarantee, both in terms of Russia's failure to

15:22protect and the prospect of being a victim of Russian aggression.

15:25As the Center for European Policy analysis points out, Kazakhstan is actively distancing itself from the CSTO.

15:33Kyrgyzstan seems to be doing the same thing.

15:35In October 2022, it even canceled a CSTO military exercise just one day before it was set to begin, which

15:42tells us that things haven't been right in the CSTO ever since Putin invaded Ukraine.

15:46As much as Putin tries to create division in the real version of NATO, he can't seem to do anything

15:51to stop the very real fractures that have developed within the CSTO from becoming gaping chasms.

15:57We can even see these fractures from the one time that the CSTO has been called upon to fulfill its

16:02collective defense purpose.

16:04In January 2022, Kazakhstan called on the CSTO for help with dealing with armed clashes that were sparked by mass

16:10unrest in the country.

16:11The CSTO sent a peacekeeping force, but that force only stayed in Kazakhstan for five days.

16:16According to the Baku Research Institute, that's because Kazakhstan had no interest in Russia maintaining a position in the country

16:22under the guise of being a peacekeeping force.

16:25Even when Russia tries to follow up on its security promises, CSTO members don't want its involvement.

16:30That tells you how badly Putin has poisoned the well, that he played the biggest part in digging.

16:35All of this leaves the CSTO in a bad position.

16:38Russia's version of NATO is actively falling apart.

16:41And Armenia's willingness to leave may end up being the catalyst for an exodus.

16:45And on top of all of this, it's not just the EU that is seeking to become a more active

16:49partner with Armenia.

16:50The US under President Donald Trump also wants to partner with the nation.

16:54Trump has played a bigger role in solving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan than Putin ever did.

16:59The point where he brought Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev together to sign a peace agreement in August 2025.

17:06Other strategic deals have been signed since and Pashinyan has emphasized his desire to deepen Armenia's relationship with the US,

17:13which includes enabling American investment into his country.

17:16Again, all of this is happening because the CSTO failed to deliver on its promises.

17:21But do you know what is as big a sign of the Russian NATO's failure as Armenia's decision to leave?

17:25The leader of one of its member nations sitting across from Putin and telling him that Russia is losing the

17:31war in Ukraine.

17:32That's what Kazakhstan's President, Kassim-Zhomart Tokayev, did in early August.

17:38He sent a message to Putin that the CSTO may be on the verge of losing more than one member.

17:43Find out more by watching our video.

17:44And if you enjoyed this video, consider subscribing and letting us know your thoughts below.

17:48You can also become a channel member for access to exclusive content that we don't publish publicly.

17:54And thank you, as always, for watching.

Category

Transcript

Recommended