Russians are fleeing in droves—find out why in our latest deep dive! We break down the rumors of a new mobilization order, the surging demand for housing in Georgia and Armenia, and what these moves could mean for the war in Ukraine. Want the inside scoop on troop movements and European military tensions? Hit subscribe, and drop a comment telling us what surprised you most! #Russia #Ukraine #News #Europe #War
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@센서스튜디오
0:00 - Russian Exodus Fears Mobilization
1:12 - Causes of Mass Russian Emigration
2:48 - Russian Military Manpower Crisis
4:00 - Early Signs of Mobilization
4:32 - Potential Directions for New Troops
5:19 - Possible New War Fronts
5:59 - NATO Tensions and Strategic Corridors
6:48 - Implications of Russian Mobilization
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@센서스튜디오
0:00 - Russian Exodus Fears Mobilization
1:12 - Causes of Mass Russian Emigration
2:48 - Russian Military Manpower Crisis
4:00 - Early Signs of Mobilization
4:32 - Potential Directions for New Troops
5:19 - Possible New War Fronts
5:59 - NATO Tensions and Strategic Corridors
6:48 - Implications of Russian Mobilization
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NewsTranscript
00:00Currently, there is already a mass exodus of Russians taking place within Russia.
00:04This is due to concerns that a mobilization order could soon be declared within Russia.
00:07According to a Politico report, last week, 113,000 Russians crossed the Russian border
00:11and headed to Georgia.
00:12On August 20th alone, more than 20,000 people fled from Russia.
00:15It seems that the number of people leaving Russia has increased significantly compared
00:19to previous years.
00:20This is because so many Russians are fleeing from Russia.
00:23It appears that neighboring countries are also on high alert.
00:25For example, in the case of Armenia, they are preparing for a possible influx of Russians
00:29fleeing Russia.
00:30Alan Simonyan, the secretary-general of the Armenian cabinet, said in an interview with
00:34reporters that Yerevan will not stop people who are trying to avoid being sent to the
00:37Ukrainian front.
00:38In particular, the escape of Russians is concentrated in the Caucasus region.
00:42Right now, the demand for apartments in Tbilisi and Yerevan has increased compared to the same
00:46period last year.
00:47There have been reports that the demand is up by as much as 30% real estate agents say
00:51that houses are selling quickly and that supply is not keeping up with demand.
00:54They also point out that this situation is similar to when Russia announced mobilization
00:57in September 2022.
01:00As a result, average rental prices are gradually rising.
01:03According to Kovcheg, a human rights organization that helps Russians emigrate and seek asylum
01:07abroad, the number of inquiries received this month has increased by 6.3 times compared to
01:11the entire month of May.
01:12The reason why Russians are rushing to escape from within Russia is the growing fear of
01:16a new large-scale mobilization order that is spreading throughout the country.
01:19Currently in Russia, rumors are spreading rapidly that the Russian government will mobilize
01:23large numbers of additional troops to change the course of the war in Ukraine.
01:26In particular, there is growing concern that measures may be taken to strengthen conscription
01:30and recruitment for men under the age of 55, and if necessary, to send more personnel
01:35to the battlefield.
01:36Although the Russian government has not officially announced such a large-scale mobilization
01:39plan yet, anxiety is spreading in Russian society that a new mobilization order could
01:43be issued at any time.
01:44The Russian government has repeatedly stated that there are no plans for a new large-scale
01:48mobilization in order to prevent this growing anxiety.
01:51Voizeli Nebenzia, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, stated that a large-scale mobilization
01:55is neither necessary nor planned, and Kremlin officials also dismissed related reports as
01:59rumors.
01:59Based solely on the Russian government's official statements, there are currently no plans to
02:02mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional people right away.
02:05However, among Russians, the government's explanations have not alleviated their anxiety.
02:09Especially since there was a large-scale mobilization during the partial mobilization in 2022, there
02:13is a great deal of wariness about a new mobilization order.
02:16At that time as well, there was a significant increase in the demand to leave the country in Russian
02:20society before and after the mobilization order was announced.
02:22So this time too, people are trying to secure places to live abroad even before any official
02:26announcement is made.
02:27The reason why Russians are currently looking for housing in countries like Georgia and
02:30Armenia is because of this.
02:32After the mobilization order is actually announced, there is a possibility that restrictions on
02:35leaving the country or tighter border controls could be imposed, so it appears that some
02:38Russians are trying to secure places to live abroad before the situation gets worse.
02:42That's why, even though no mobilization order has been announced yet, we are already
02:45seeing people trying to leave Russia first.
02:47Currently, Russia is continuing its war against the Ukrainian military, but it is analyzed that
02:51they are under considerable pressure when it comes to securing troops and replacing losses.
02:55The Guardian reported that in the past two months, the number of Russian military casualties
02:58has exceeded the number of new recruits.
03:00It is estimated that there are about 6,000 more casualties per minute on average.
03:04So this means that the total number of Russian troops is continuously decreasing now.
03:07Here, as the Ukrainian military's use of drones has increased significantly, Russian troop
03:11casualties continue to occur.
03:12Ukraine is attacking Russian troops and equipment on various fronts by first locating Russian positions
03:17with reconnaissance drones and then deploying attack drones.
03:19They are also expanding their strike range to include Russian rear supply and command facilities.
03:23For Russia, in a situation where they have to keep sending in troops, if more soldiers leave
03:27the frontlines than the number of new troops they can secure, it will inevitably become increasingly
03:31difficult to maintain the combat effectiveness of their unit.
03:34If the monthly decrease of 6,000 troops actually continues, the accumulated troop gap over a year would
03:39reach about 72,000.
03:40This means that the Russian military will have to continuously fill a significant manpower gap on the current
03:45frontlines. Especially since lost troops may include experienced veterans with combat experience,
03:49simply recruiting new recruits is not enough to maintain the same combat effectiveness of existing
03:53units. In addition, since they also need to secure enough officers and equipment,
03:56the burden of managing manpower for the Russian military could continue to increase.
03:59In fact, there are already signs everywhere that Russia is about to declare a mobilization order.
04:04The Russian human rights organization Idait Lesum stated that they received 14 reports in just
04:07mid-August of people being forced to sign documents at police stations or military enlistment offices.
04:11A representative from Idait Lesum explained that cases of forced contract signing peaked
04:15around August 11th. In particular, security forces are using identity checks as an excuse
04:19to detain citizens on the streets or at their workplaces and then pressure them to sign.
04:23The Federal Bailiff Service is recruiting civilians from among detainees and those held
04:26in detention facilities who are debtors. They continue to target economically vulnerable groups
04:30such as the unemployed and are attempting to forcibly conscript them.
04:33In a report by the Wall Street Journal, the United States also predicted that Russia
04:37would soon announce a general mobilization. If Russia does declare a general mobilization,
04:40it is expected to happen after the Russian general election on September 20th, so where
04:44will these additional troops be sent? According to the combined analysis of the media and government
04:48intelligence agencies, there are three main directions being discussed. However, since
04:52Russia's actual operational plans have not been confirmed, what I'm about to tell you should be
04:56considered as possibilities that are currently being discussed. If Russia actually proceeds with
05:01deploying an additional force of about 500,000 troops, and North Korean troops are also added to this,
05:05the total number of troops Russia could deploy to the front lines is being discussed as up to 550,000.
05:11If Russia secures this scale of troops, it would not only allow them to reinforce their existing
05:15front lines, but also give them the option to create new axes of attack. The first area being
05:19mentioned is Northern Ukraine. In particular, there is growing concern about the possibility of a new
05:24Russian offensive in areas close to the capital, Kyiv. The Ukrainian military is strengthening its defensive
05:29posture in the northern region, considering the possibility of troop movements from the direction of Russia and
05:33Belarus. Belarus is also conducting military training for its reservists, which is drawing
05:37increased attention to military movements near the Russia-Belarus border. And recently,
05:41since President Lukashenko of Belarus visited Moscow, that possibility is increasing. If Russia
05:46reactivates the Northern Front, the Ukrainian military may have to move some of its forces currently
05:50focused on the Eastern and Southern Fronts. Especially if the situation leads to a direct threat to Kyiv,
05:55the burden on Ukraine's defense could increase significantly. The second area drawing
05:59attention is the three Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all NATO member countries,
06:04so if Russia attacks this region, it would create a completely different level of problem
06:07compared to the war in Ukraine. This is because there would be a possibility of a direct clash
06:10between Russia and NATO. There is no official evidence confirming that Russia actually has plans
06:14to attack the three Baltic states, but as European countries have recently been strengthening their
06:18defense capabilities in preparation for Russia's military threats, concerns about this region
06:22continue to be raised. The third is the Suwałki Corridor, which is located between Lithuania and Poland.
06:27This area is considered to be of military importance because it serves as a land corridor
06:31connecting the three Baltic states with other NATO member countries. Since Russia's Kaliningrad and
06:35Belarus are nearby, if a military conflict occurs in this region, it could affect the movement of
06:39NATO troops and equipment. Recently, as tensions between Russia and NATO have been rising, if Russia
06:43amasses a large military force, the military importance of this area could become even greater.
06:47In particular, as it has been reported that a senior official from the US government recently
06:51contacted the Russian side and conveyed the message that a direct conflict between NATO and Russia should be
06:56avoided, there is growing interest in Russia's next military actions. Although there have been
07:00previous attacks on northern Ukraine, the possibility of attacks on the Suwałki Gap and
07:04the three Baltic states seems to be increasing, especially after the CIA director visited Russia.
07:08In fact, regardless of which region the troops are sent to, if a large-scale mobilization order
07:12is actually issued, it is more likely to be seen as a sign that Russia is preparing for a prolonged
07:16war rather than ending the Ukraine war quickly. The additional troops could be used to make up for losses on
07:19the existing
07:20front lines or could be deployed to create a new axis of attack. Especially if the northern front
07:24is reopened and tensions rise simultaneously in areas adjacent to NATO, the overall military
07:28tension in Europe could increase significantly. If Russia mobilizes an additional 500,000 troops,
07:32Ukraine will have no choice but to respond accordingly. In particular, where the newly mobilized troops
07:36are trained and the routes they take to the front lines will become important information,
07:39so it is highly likely that Ukraine will strengthen its reconnaissance and intelligence gathering.
07:43Long-range strikes against Russian troop assembly areas, supply points, military facilities,
07:47and munitions production facilities could also be expanded. In addition, by attacking the railways
07:52and major supply lines used to move troops to the front, there is a possibility that Ukraine
07:55could slow down the arrival of new troops to the combat zones. In this process, Ukraine may more
07:59strongly demand support for long-range strike weapons and air defense systems from the United States
08:03and Europe. Russia's large-scale mobilization does not simply end with an increase in Russian troops,
08:07it could also lead to an expansion of Ukraine's response capabilities.