00:00Right now, Japan is trying to create a backup capital. This is so that if a massive earthquake
00:03strikes and Tokyo is completely devastated, this secondary capital can step in and function as
00:06the nation's capital. Today, I'm going to take a closer look at this topic. Let's dive right in.
00:10Currently, Japan has drafted an enforcement ordinance outlining the requirements for
00:12designating a backup capital. Following a public comment period, the draft is reportedly scheduled
00:16to be approved at a cabinet meeting sometime in October. Just recently, on July 25th, a bill to
00:20designate a backup capital was passed in Japan's House of Counselors plenary session by a razor-thin
00:24margin of 123 votes in favor to 121 against. The core of this law is to establish a backup capital
00:29that can take over the political and economic functions of the Tokyo metropolitan area in
00:32the event of a major disaster. Now, putting everything else aside for a moment, let's take a look
00:35at which Japanese cities could potentially become candidates for this backup capital. In fact,
00:38the picture is already beginning to take shape. Just a month ago, Japanese local governments
00:42were fiercely competing with one another, all jumping in to become the backup capital.
00:45According to the newly released enforcement decree, the backup capital must not be closed
00:48to Tokyo, ensuring that it can still function as the capital without suffering disaster damage
00:51at the same time as the Tokyo metropolitan area. It also must not fall under earthquake emergency
00:55measure zones or Mt. Fuji volcanic hazard warning areas. Furthermore, there is a condition that it
00:59must host at least half of the central government's regional state institutions, such as regional
01:03legal affairs bureaus and finance bureaus. Additionally, it must have a major city accounting for
01:07at least 1.2% of Japan's population and its gross product must make up at least 2.1%
01:11of Japan's GDP.
01:12Well, there are quite a few conditions. Currently, only four prefectural-level governments meet the
01:16requirements of this enforcement decree. Hokkaido, Aichi Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture, and Fukuoka Prefecture.
01:21Just by their names, you can tell these are regions of considerable size in Japan. First, Hokkaido, home to
01:25Sapporo, has a population of 4,961,117. Even though it's a prefectural-level jurisdiction located at
01:30the northernmost tip of Japan, nearly 5 million people live there. In particular, Hokkaido has its
01:34population, administration, and economic functions concentrated around Sapporo, forming a distinct
01:37economic and social region in northern Japan. Its area is also so vast that it's hard to compare
01:41with other prefectural-level jurisdictions in Japan, so the scale of the region itself is substantial.
01:45Next is Aichi Prefecture. Aichi Prefecture, home to Nagoya, has a population of 7,445,156. Just looking at its
01:51population size alone, it's one of the top regions in Japan. In particular, Nagoya is the center of a
01:55major metropolitan area, and the entire Aichi Prefecture is a major industrial region in Japan,
01:59which is why it was able to qualify under this enforcement decree, which requires not only
02:03population criteria, but also economic scale. Osaka Prefecture is even bigger. With a population of
02:078,758,525, yes, it's the largest among the four regions. Osaka City is one of Japan's major cities,
02:13and looking at the entire Osaka Prefecture, its population well exceeds 8 million.
02:17It also carries significant weight, in that it has functioned as a major urban area alongside Tokyo
02:21for a long time in Japan. Lastly, there's Fukuoka Prefecture. The population of Fukuoka Prefecture
02:25is 5,071,942. It has a population of over 5 million, and a major metropolitan area centered around
02:30Fukuoka City has formed. In particular, because it is a powerful local government of considerable scale
02:34in western Japan, it holds a strong presence among this round of candidates for secondary capital status.
02:38Looking at it this way, you can see that the scale of these four regions is quite substantial.
02:42Hokkaido has about 4.96 million people, Aichi has about 7.44 million, Osaka has about 8.76 million,
02:48and Fukuoka has 5.07 million. Adding up the populations of these four regions, it reaches 26.2 million.
02:53Regions that account for a significant portion of Japan's total population have all ended up as
02:57candidates for the secondary capital at once. In particular, it's worth noting that all four
03:01regions have large designated cities within their prefectures. Sapporo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Fukuoka
03:06each serve as the core city for their respective regions. So the regions that could meet the population
03:10and economic scale required by this enforcement decree naturally narrowed down to a few, and
03:13currently, these four regions are the ones listed. The key conditions proposed by the Japanese
03:17government for a backup capital are earthquake safety and city scale. As you all know, the reason
03:21Japan is going so far as to establish a backup capital is largely due to earthquakes.
03:24The Japanese government predicts that there is about a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake
03:28directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area within 30 years. The problem is that everything is overly
03:32concentrated in Tokyo, though not quite as much as in South Korea. Around 30% of Japan's total
03:36population, 37 million people are packed together, and more than half of all listed company headquarters
03:40are heavily concentrated there, so if a mega disaster strikes, the entire nation's functions
03:43could be paralyzed in an instant.
03:53On top of that, to also address the excessive concentration of people and businesses in the
03:56Tokyo metropolitan area, the Japanese government is currently pushing hard to establish a backup capital.
04:00The region designated as the backup capital will, of course, see an expansion of its
04:03transportation infrastructure. It's also expected that unprecedented government support,
04:06such as tax incentives and deregulation, will be heavily focused there to encourage businesses
04:09to relocate. Osaka, in particular, is fiercely eager to become the backup capital.
04:13At the center of this movement is the Japan Innovation Party, which has its political base
04:16in Osaka. The Japan Innovation Party's backup capital initiative is also linked to reforming
04:21Osaka's administrative system. According to Kyoto News, an official from the ruling party at the
04:25time stated that the bill to establish Osaka as a backup capital included plans to set up a
04:29promotion headquarters led by the Prime Minister and create a new ministerial force to serve as the deputy head.
04:33A timeline was also laid out to establish basic guidelines for the backup capital within a year
04:37of the law taking effect. For Osaka, establishing an implementation framework at the central
04:41government level is significantly important. On top of that, plans to rename Osaka Prefecture
04:45are being pushed forward again. Currently, Japan's regional governments are divided into
04:49prefectures. To do, Fu and Ken among them, Tokyo is the only one that uses the title to Hokkaido,
04:54uses a different kanji character. Nipponiji no Kai is pushing a plan to change Osaka Prefecture to
04:58Osaka Metropolis and holding a referendum for all Osaka residents is being discussed to make it happen.
05:03It might look like just a matter of changing a name, but what's important is that it's tied to
05:06Nipponiji no Kai's grand plan to fundamentally overhaul Osaka's administrative system. The core
05:10plan pushed by Nipponiji no Kai is to abolish Osaka City and reorganize it into several special wards.
05:16The idea is to distribute the administrative functions currently held by Osaka City into special
05:19wards, creating a structure where the prefectional Osaka government plays a much stronger role.
05:22This is the so-called Osaka Metropolis plan. Referendums along these lines have been held in the past
05:26as well. Referendums were held in 2015 and 2020, but both were rejected as yes votes failed to pass
05:32the majority. Mark, if it's pushed again this time, it will mark their third attempt. This is where
05:36the secondary capital concept and the Osaka Metropolis plan connect. Nipponiji no Kai is attempting
05:41to overhaul the administrative system itself in the process of turning Osaka into another political
05:45and administrative hub of Japan. The secondary capital system includes measures to ensure that
05:48national and social functions, such as politics and administration, can continue even when a major
05:52disaster strikes. At the same time, establishing a multipolar decentralized economic zone that
05:56disperses the population and economic functions concentrated in the capital region to various
05:59areas and strengthens inter-regional cooperation was also presented as a major goal. It also includes
06:03supporting population relocation, fostering regional universities, and expanding employment
06:06opportunities for young people. The goal is to reduce the continuing concentration of businesses
06:09and people in Tokyo, ensuring that economic activity continues in other regions as well.
06:13That is why in Japan, this policy is sometimes compared to South Korea's Sejong City.
06:16That's because it has a similar goal of dispersing the national functions and population
06:19concentrated in the capital area to other regions. Behind Osaka's backup capital initiative gaining
06:23serious momentum, there were also growing concerns following the 2011 Great East Japan
06:26earthquake that Tokyo's capital functions could be paralyzed. Concerns were raised that a massive
06:31disaster in Tokyo and the metropolitan area could affect both national administration and economic
06:35functions, leading to ongoing discussions about establishing a hub outside Tokyo to maintain
06:39national operations. Afterward, the initiative regained momentum when Nipponishi no Kai,
06:43whose political base is in Osaka, made it a key policy platform. In particular, Nipponishi no Kai put forward
06:48the Osaka secondary capital initiative as a crucial condition even during talks to form a coalition
06:51government with the Liberal Democratic Party. They aimed to strengthen their political base
06:55centered on Osaka while simultaneously pressuring the central government to pursue the secondary
06:58capital policy. The LDP and Nipponishi no Kai moved with the goal of passing the relevant bill in
07:03the Diet, and it actually reached the stage where the secondary capital system itself was being
07:07pursued through legislation. Now what Osaka wants isn't just to be named as one of the candidate regions,
07:12but to elevate Osaka's administrative system and political standing together through this secondary capital
07:17system. Above all, we have to look at the fact that Nipponishi no Kai currently forms a coalition with
07:22the LDP. While Nipponishi no Kai is a national party, it is particularly known for having a strong
07:27political stronghold centered in Osaka. In fact, politicians from Nipponishi no Kai have long wielded
07:31strong influence in Osaka, and they have had a considerable impact on the major policies of Osaka
07:35Prefecture and Osaka City. Because of this political background, observations suggest that Osaka could have an
07:40advantage over other candidate regions during the process of designating a secondary capital. In particular,
07:44the fact that Nipponishi no Kai forms a coalition government with the LDP is politically hard to
07:48overlook. Because promoting the secondary capital system requires decisions from the central government.
07:53How aggressively the ruling coalition pushes the Osaka secondary capital concept from within
07:57could be a crucial factor. But Nipponishi no Kai as well, designating Osaka as the secondary capital is
08:02an important policy that can strengthen its local base while connecting to the Osaka Administrator
08:06Reform Initiative they have long pursued. After all, those who argue that Osaka must immediately be made a
08:10secondary capital are Nipponishi no Kai. Of course, we will have to wait and see how things develop,
08:15but it is true that Osaka is being mentioned as one of the very strong candidates. When you look at
08:19the
08:19city's scale, distance from Tokyo, and political momentum together, the reason Osaka is mentioned as a
08:23highly viable candidate is clear. However, as for which region will ultimately be designated as the
08:27secondary capital, we will have to wait and see how the process unfolds.
