Deep Dive 01/09/2026 – A record breaking summer – Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

Name: Deep Dive 01/09/2026 – A record breaking summer – Met Office weekly weather forecast UK
Uploaded: 2026-09-01T12:58:06+00:00
Duration: 34 min 37 s
Channel: Met Office

00:00Autumn is here. Meteorological autumn is here. Yes, summer has been and gone, and what a summer

00:07it was. Hello, welcome to this week's Deep Dive. I'm Alex Burkle, presenter-meteorologist here at

00:13the Met Office, coming to you from our headquarters. Now, you know the drill. Make sure you hit that

00:17like button. Make sure you're sharing this with anyone who you think's interested in it. Make

00:21sure you're subscribed, and do leave any comments. We'll be answering them, particularly in the

00:25Weather Studio Live on Friday. Lots to talk about this week. I'll be joined by Holly Clements,

00:31head of our warnings and guidance department, to talk about storm names as the new list for the

00:362026-2027 storm season has been announced as your name on the list. I'll also be glancing ahead to

00:44what autumn 26 could bring us. But first, I want to delve into the stats behind summer 2026. Yes,

00:52it was remarkable. It was record-breaking, record-breakingly hot. Looking at mean

00:59temperatures, summer 2026 for the UK comes in as our hottest on record, with a mean temperature

01:05of 16.51. That is significantly higher than the previous record just set last year, where the mean

01:13temperature was 16.1. But that's quite a jump, over 0.4 degrees warmer. So that's a significant rise in

01:20temperatures. And I don't think it's going to come as a huge surprise to many people, because most of us

01:26are well aware just how hot, how very warm, how hot it has been with many, many heatwaves through this

01:32season. Now, across much of England and Wales, that's where it's been exceptionally so, with temperatures

01:39more than two degrees above average. Further north and west, well, less so. Well, northwestern parts of

01:45Scotland, actually, temperatures are around average. But for most, it has been significantly warmer. For

01:50northern Ireland, England, Wales, it's also their warmest summer on record. Unsurprising when you look

01:56at this chart. But how did summer actually play out when we look at our temperatures? Well, this chart

02:00shows individual days' mean temperature for the whole of the UK and compares it to average and

02:06records. And you can see, after a very hot period at the end of May, there was some warmer weather

02:12at the

02:13beginning of June and then slightly cooler. And actually, the first couple of weeks, if you took

02:16them alone, they wouldn't be too exceptional. But then we had that hot spell towards the end of June,

02:22some very high temperatures, highest June temperature record. And then we had that prolonged hot weather

02:27through a large chunk of July. And then we had some further hot spells during August. Some cooler days,

02:33yes, but some hot periods as well. You can see some record-breakingly hot periods when we look back.

02:40Like I say, many, many heatwaves. So it has been very warm, very hot indeed. It's also been pretty

02:47dry. Not quite record-breakingly dry. But nonetheless, many places have had significantly less

02:53than 50% of their average rainfall that they'd expect through the whole season. And that's no

03:00surprise again. Many farmers, many gardeners have been desperate for some decent rain. And whilst we have

03:05seen things turn a little bit wetter recently, it's not really made up for how dry it was earlier on

03:12in

03:12the season. Obviously, towards the northwest of Scotland here, it has been a fair bit actually

03:16wetter than average. Now, if we look at how this season's played out when it comes to rainfall amount,

03:21and this is a similar chart to the one I previously showed, but it's actually looking at the cumulative

03:25rainfall. So taking each day and then adding it on. And you can see, actually, the first few weeks

03:30of summer were a little bit wetter than average. And then it sort of leveled out. There was some

03:35rain through the end of June, but not a huge amount. And then through much of July, there was

03:41so little rain for many places. Wisley, for example, saw more than 60 days in a row with no rain

03:48recorded

03:48here. So exceptionally dry. And yes, it then just plateaued. And that's when it became so dry compared

03:54to average. Like I say, not quite record breaking levels of lack of rain, but it was very dry indeed.

04:01And then yes, we've had some rain through recent weeks, but it's not been enough to change how far

04:06below that average line that we have been. In terms of sunshine, well, it has been very sunny.

04:13Not a huge surprise with how warm it's been as well. Lots of sunny weather across the UK as a

04:19whole.

04:19It's the sixth sunniest summer on record. Some parts towards the northwest, it's been actually

04:24cloudier here, but particularly to central southern parts of England and Wales, lots of sunshine,

04:31well over 135% amounts of sunshine compared to average. So it has been very sunny. But obviously,

04:37it's the very warm weather that's caused lots of problems. We've had the heat waves, we've had

04:42heat health alerts, we've had extreme heat warnings. There's been impacts because of the hot weather with

04:47excessive deaths. With the dry weather, we've had droughts, hosepipe bans, wildfires. They've been

04:53a real problem. So it has been a very difficult summer. But autumn is here. And like I said at

04:58the

04:59start, I will get on to what autumn is likely to bring. But before we get to that, let's have

05:04a

05:04little look at August. August less remarkable, still warmer than average, particularly across

05:10southern areas, but not as markedly so as through summer as a whole, with really June, July standing out

05:17as exceptionally warm months. But August kind of kept that same vibe going, but just not to the

05:22same exceptional level. But then I did want to highlight sunshine amounts because it really was

05:27a tale of two halves when it comes to sunshine amounts for a story of two halves, a north-south

05:33divide when it comes to sunshine amounts. In fact, Northern Ireland had its ninth cloudiest

05:39autumn, no, no, August on record. Even though it had its warmest summer on record, autumn actually had

05:47its ninth cloudiest. Not that remarkable, but worth highlighting. Meanwhile, Arlwight, Berkshire,

05:54Hampshire, they had their sunniest autumn on record. So pretty remarkable and quite a split

06:00between how much cloud there was towards the north and how much sunshine there was towards the south.

06:07But when it comes to exceptional events like this, like this summer that we've had, we do attribution

06:13studies. And we've actually done a rapid attribution study. Some climate scientists here at the Met

06:18office have looked into it and seen what the impacts of climate change were on the exceptional

06:24summer that we've just had. And, well, they found that it's around, it was, it's around 130 times

06:30more likely for us to have had an exceptional summer like we've just had in a climate with human,

06:38in a world with human, in human induced climate change. So if we didn't have human induced climate

06:45change, it would have been around 130 times less likely for it to have happened. For example,

06:51we've been looking at about a one in 1,122 year event in a pre-industrial levels kind of world.

07:01Whereas

07:01now we're looking at a one in nine year event with temperatures of a similar level to what we've seen

07:08through summer 2026. So really quite remarkable, remarkable change, a shift. And we can see that

07:15with this chart here, what we have is our temperatures for the UK through an average

07:23summer, depending on the global warming levels above pre-industrial levels. So here's our two

07:28degrees. And you can see this yellow line. So the average would be just below 16. And we've marked

07:33with this red line summer 2026. So like I say, 16.51 for our mean temperature. And you can see

07:39it's a bit

07:40warmer, a bit warmer. It's on the very warmer side, but still within the kind of the average

07:45area of this two degrees global warming above pre-industrial levels. But if we change that to

07:522.5, you can see we're much closer to the average line. And actually, if we change that to three,

07:56we're a little bit below that average line. So in a world where we warm to global levels of three

08:04degrees above pre-industrial level, summer 2026 would just be average. And if we continued that trend,

08:11rising levels to four degrees above pre-industrial levels. Well, actually, summer 2026 would be

08:17markedly on the cooler side as well. And as I mentioned, it's not just the warmth, the heat

08:24that's caused problems. And it has caused problems. But it's also been the lack of rain. But if we do

08:29a

08:29similar chart, but this time looking at rainfall, and you can see, yes, summer 2026 was drier than

08:35average, even with pre-, sorry, global warming levels to two degrees above pre-industrial levels.

08:42But if we rise that to three degrees, then actually, it's slightly wetter than average. So the forecast,

08:50as we've spoken about many times before, is for our summers to become warmer and drier. And summer 2026,

08:58when we compare it to what we could see in the future, won't stand out. It could actually end up

09:04as

09:04being cooler than average in many decades' time, and also maybe a bit wetter as well.

09:11But meteorological summer is over. It is now the start of autumn. And the start of autumn,

09:16the first of September, well, that means the start of the new storm season. The storm names

09:22for 2026-27 have just been revealed. Is your name on the list? Do any of the names on the

09:28list

09:28mean anything important to you? Well, to go through some of the names, and to talk about

09:34why we name our storms, and also a look back at last storm season, I'm joined now by Holly Clemens,

09:41who's head of our warnings and guidance here at the Met Office. Holly, thank you for joining us

09:45on The Deep Dive. Now, first of all, when it comes to naming storms, why do we do it, and

09:51how does it work?

09:52Sure. So we do it because it helps us identify a range of hazards that could have impacts, and for

10:01those to be important to the public and responders and people at emergency services. So if we have lots

10:07of severe weather, which we do have severe weather warnings out often without a name storm, we need to

10:13have really strong winds. So winds that we would associate with an amber warning, but also really

10:19sometimes heavy rain as well, and something where we need, we're expecting there to be, we're wanting

10:25media, we're wanting people to be talking about the storm and taking action, because there's either a

10:30risk to life or a risk to property. So the storm naming helps us identify and join up across our

10:38media

10:38partners, but also responders and cross-government as well to have quite in-depth conversations and

10:44meetings around what to do to enable people to take action, essentially, and stay safe.

10:50I think that's a good point that you raised. So when we're doing our forecasts,

10:53you know, a name storm really helps us to drive that message home. It keeps things clear and consistent,

11:00but it's important that it's not just from the public's point of view, but it's also working with

11:04government bodies as well, isn't it? Absolutely, absolutely. We work really closely across flood

11:09and into central government as well, and across our UK nations in Scotland,

11:14Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales as well. So it helps identify that, and also it helps us look back

11:21as well to see what the impacts were and learn from that. So it helps give context to an event

11:26or a weather, severe weather situation. You could say actually it's quite similar to storm Babette or

11:34another storm, Storm Burt, if you're talking about heavy rain in Wales. It sort of helps give context

11:39and an element of severity for sort of enabling people to think about that in context of what,

11:45how it impacted them or their business or their property and to take action. Yeah.

11:51And I suppose we've been naming storms now just over 10 years, but the longer we keep doing it,

11:56the more... The more context there'll be, absolutely. Yeah. And we've got a range of storms,

12:02we name across the UK, and they'll have different meanings to different people.

12:07We'll talk about the storms of the season in a bit, and we talk about storms that might have

12:12impacted Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland more than maybe Southern England. So we'll

12:20talk about those a bit more. And so some do have more meaning to different areas of the UK

12:26and different elements as well to do with either strongest wind or, yeah, the strongest wind or

12:33heaviest rain and flooding then subsequent impacts to the heavy rain. Yeah. And that's one of the

12:39challenges with the storms, that when we get some criticism sometimes, because the storms don't

12:45usually affect the whole country, that you get people maybe in the southeast who are saying,

12:50what's this storm fuss about when it's battering parts of Scotland and then vice versa at the time.

12:55But it's worth highlighting, you know, that's why we're here to help give the message across.

12:59Absolutely. But here are the names for 20, 26, 27. Do any of the names mean anything to you?

13:07Yeah, I mean, I have a nephew, Finn. So, you know, that would be good if we get to F.

13:13Well,

13:13not good, but you know, I'm sure he'll be excited about that.

13:16Yeah. So Finn, interestingly, was named after a two-year-old. So his name was given in by his

13:22mother. And also speaking of mothers, I think Chloe was also there. Her mother suggested her name.

13:29She's a five-year-old, a weather enthusiast. Great. So we get these names. We name this list,

13:35or this list is a joint partnership with MetAaron in the Republic of Ireland and also KNMI,

13:41the Dutch Met Service. And the names come from lots of different places. But a lot of the names

13:47that we've added to the list, the Met Office, have come from public input. So lots of names,

13:53tens of thousands of names were suggested to us. And then we picked some of them which have

13:57particular meaning. I mean, some stand out a little bit more than others. There's Olaf,

14:02for example, and you might think it's named after a certain famous snowman. But actually,

14:08it's a more common name. And it's, I think that came from KNMI. And we did have suggestions for

14:14Olaf from the UK, but it wasn't actually related to a certain Disney film. Then there's Sean. Now,

14:21Sean, there's been some questions as to why we've got Sean. And it's because of Sean the sheep,

14:25that famous Aardman character and celebrating Aardman's anniversary. I think it's their 50th

14:32anniversary year. And it's, you know, it's nice to help raise awareness for different things in

14:39different ways. So by like tying in with Aardman, we're able to help raise that awareness of our

14:46storm list to make people aware. Now, as I mentioned, we are also doing these lists as we always do

14:52with

14:52MetAaron and KNMI. But two of the names in particular for this year's list come from MetAaron. And they

14:59mean an important thing. So Austin is after the first director of the Irish Met Service. And it's

15:08marking the fact that it's been 90 years. So it's the 90th anniversary of MetAaron. And Evelyn,

15:15or Evelyn, is after Evelyn Murphy, who was the first female presenter on RTE. So some interesting

15:24names that have come up on this list. Do let us know in the comments if any of them mean

15:28anything

15:28to you. And if any of them, maybe any of them are your name. Are you Abulo or Alicia, perhaps?

15:34But

15:34enough about 2026-27. I will take a look at what autumn could be bringing us in a second. But

15:41let's

15:42look back now at 2025-2026, because it was an interesting one when it comes to our storms.

15:48Interesting, because as shown on this diagram, so the green ones are the names that came from

15:53our list. But then there are a few that came from other lists. And yeah, so the names dotted around,

16:01we try to go in this alphabetical order, but as shown, it doesn't always happen. And exactly why is

16:07that, Holly? Yeah, sure. So yeah, Storm A&E was named by the UK Met Office. So we do start

16:15with,

16:15you know, the storm season isn't going to play ball with a list. So we, you know, generally it's named

16:22because we're impacted by the northern storms that impact the northern Atlantic, you know, MetAireland,

16:28and then the UK and perhaps into Holland as well. But we generally, we follow the ABC generally,

16:35but we also, you know, do get impacted by storms that come in through affecting northern France,

16:42Spain as well, and sometimes storms that have, you know, come up from, you know, more Portugal,

16:47sort of mid-Spain. So this is the case of Benjamin and Claudia and Goretti as well. So it was

16:56named by

16:56the French, the Storm Benjamin, because those are where they were expecting the biggest impacts,

17:02and so they wanted to name it. But before, like, sometimes the storm might come in a day before

17:06or 12 hours before. It's almost based on impacts, but also the timeliness of that storm

17:11before it makes landfall or before it starts causing impact. So that's part of the decision-making. And

17:18we are in conversation with the forecasters across Meteor France and the Spanish Met Service,

17:25when we're looking at systems coming in through the Atlantic and having conversations about whether

17:30they were going to name it. And it's their call if it's coming into their area at first landfall.

17:37I think that's interesting, isn't it? Because we do talk with them, like you say, when we see a deep

17:41low developing, that kind of thing. Because also, if the impacts are going to be much more severe in

17:47those countries, we don't want to steal the name away from them as such, because we want the messaging to

17:54be clearest in the country that's likely to be...

17:56Has the most severe impacts.

17:58...severe weather. So I think it's worth highlighting that we do have this conversation

18:02ongoing with all our partners in other countries, even the ones that aren't in our storm naming list.

18:08Because you're right, there are a couple of storm lists around Europe.

18:13Ours isn't the only one. And we will adopt those names if the impacts from those storms were deemed

18:20significant enough that we would have named it ourselves anyway. So we won't just take a storm

18:26and talk about it if it doesn't bring us particularly impactful weather. But if the impacts are severe

18:33enough, then that's when we would cover it as well. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. And some of the names,

18:38some of the storms this year have been pretty impactful. Let's go through this now. So Amy,

18:43that was a record breaker in some ways, wasn't it? Yeah, record breaking gusts in Northern Ireland.

18:49So absolutely. And also with Storm Amy, it was the lowest pressure recorded for an October storm

18:58in Shetland, so Northern Scotland. So very... So it was a really deep area of low pressure.

19:03Very much so. And brought record breaking gusts for Northern Ireland for October as well.

19:08And I mean, impact wise, there's 100,000 people out of power. There was reduced connection across to the

19:17islands. Island to Tyree didn't have internet connection. And actually that lasted quite a few

19:21months after. So it's quite a lot of isolated communities in that area, which was of a concern

19:27when we're thinking about the impacts and the advice that was going to those sort of people in

19:31those communities and the responders, of course, that were needing to prepare for that. Which is the

19:36whole reason that we named these storms to help get that message across. Then we have Benjamin and

19:40Claudia and Bram, named by Mayor Aaron, but they're in our party. So that's all good. And then Goretti,

19:48that was a significant one, wasn't it? Absolutely. Because we had a red warning.

19:51That was the first and only red warning of this previous storm season of 25-26. Storm Goretti,

20:00named by the French. We were expecting the biggest impacts across Northern France. And so we had a

20:06conversation around... The timings were quite similar. We were expecting that low pressure to build,

20:11to bring that really strong, strong wind, strongest winds into Northern France. And that was the case.

20:20But also during the day of the morning, we were starting to see the model output that was showing

20:26the really, really strong winds across western Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly. So that's why

20:34we escalated from an amber high impact into a red warning for the wind, for Storm Goretti. So very

20:41much a storm that you're probably quite familiar with in terms of it was in the press and the media.

20:47For wind specifically, for west and Cornwall, Devon and Cornwall, when ours are silly,

20:52but also it was kind of cool, you might hear it, we talk about it in the Met Office quite

20:57a bit,

20:57around a multi-hazard. So a range of weather. Well, you can see it, can't you? Wind, rain, snow,

21:04ice. Absolutely. Basically everything in the kitchen sink. Yeah. And we had warnings across

21:10the whole of the UK, pretty much, during that period of severe weather associated with Storm

21:15Goretti. So we had snow, snow and ice across Scotland, snow amber warning across the Midlands and

21:22eastern Wales as well. So that's quite significant if you're in the Midlands area,

21:26you know, 10 centimetres of snow across that area. And schools were shut, there's travel disruption,

21:32nice photos of people sledging, of course. But there were power disruptions through the Midlands

21:38and quite a large wave of England and Wales there as well. So there's quite a lot to consider during

21:44that. We're thinking about wind and the risk of life in sort of the west of England. And then you're

21:50thinking about snow and a different hazard across the other side of England and Wales as well. So

21:56yeah, quite a lot going on for our forecasters. And of course, trying to communicate this is

22:00to the public and to across government is really important as well. So naming a storm associates all

22:07these elements and risks and hazards, the risk of the hazard and the impact, it kind of relates it

22:12all together into a storm Goretti. And that means something when we talk about it now. But also when we

22:18maybe think about we're going to see the wind, if we see a wind event this next season coming up,

22:23you know, it could be something that we could use in context like storm Goretti or like another

22:28storm Amy if you're in Scotland. And with Goretti, we know that the storm naming, the warnings,

22:35they worked. Yeah, absolutely. Because we've looked at the level of awareness within the warning areas.

22:41That's right. That's right. Yeah. We run public surveys for a few. We have a few a year. We run

22:47for

22:48particular specific weather elements and sort of amber or red warnings to gauge whether our warnings

22:55actually being listened to or people are taking action. And if they're not, then we would learn from

23:00that. But yeah, absolutely. In terms of people being aware, it's 98% I think. I think it was 93.

23:0793. I'm

23:08going higher. 93% aware and I think 88% of response. 88% like response. Taking action.

23:14Absolutely. And for us, what's really important for us is that people are taking action on the warnings.

23:18And that's why we do it. That's why we're here. That's why we're talking about it today. So yeah,

23:23it is good to see. And that was based on the snow warning. Often we do get quite a lot

23:26of media press.

23:27So our media partners really help us in that awareness piece and enabling people to take action.

23:33And we had Chandra later in January as well. It's worth highlighting these storms,

23:38they don't tell the whole picture for the weather that we had during the winter months, is that?

23:43That's right. It felt very busy for our operational teams, the teams that I worked

23:46directly with in the Met Office and probably as well, your teams across media and our press office

23:52being very busy. So yeah, it was a lot of wetting up through the autumn and

23:56sort of mid-winter between Storm Claudia and Bram and actually Storm Benjamin. We had quite a few

24:04weekends of sequential, very wet periods. Heavy rain. Yeah. Yeah.

24:08Yeah. And so it was a lot of wetting up of the ground, priming, what we call like priming it.

24:12So basically, it's causing less and less rain to cause issues in terms of flooding. And so

24:17we did have a lot of heavy rain through this period.

24:22It was a long time ago. A long time ago.

24:25Bearing in mind the summer we've just had. Absolutely. And I think Christmas is quite calm

24:28generally, apart from it's quite windy. But then we went into after New Year's Day or from New Year's

24:36Day, if you're up in Scotland and Northern England and Northern Ireland as well, you'd have seen quite

24:41a lot of heavy snow, particularly really heavy snow and a long period of cold for over a week up

24:48in

24:48Scotland. So yeah, that was quite testing for you as a member of public being in that area, but also

24:55for

24:55our responders. So it was a very busy period. Although, yeah, the storms kind of give us quite nice kind

25:01of

25:02time boxed areas for us to think about and talk about. But of course, there's quite a lot of activity

25:08going on with warnings being issued across the UK during this period outside of the storms.

25:14And then Dave, the last storm of the season, actually quite early compared to recent storm

25:20seasons for it to be the last one, early April. Yeah, we've not had a storm in five months now.

25:29So let's see. Let's see what autumn, what the new storm season brings. Thank you so much for going

25:36through that with me today, Holly. It's been a joy to have you on The Deep Dive. You're very welcome.

25:40Thank you for having me. So let's look now at how this autumn is likely to shape up.

25:46At the beginning of every month and every three month period, we issue a three month overview

25:55at what the trends are likely to be when we go through the next three months. And this is the

26:01one,

26:01an important one, because it covers September, October, November meteorological autumn. And these

26:08planning forecasters, they're mainly aimed for contingency planners. So to give an idea to

26:15various responders and stuff, what's most likely in terms of whether it's going to be wetter or drier,

26:23warmer or colder, windier or calmer. And here we have the most recent one. It was just issued today.

26:29And what you can see, well, there are a few things stand up, stand out, but warmer, significantly more likely

26:35than cooler, 40 to 5%, albeit near average, still most likely, with around 55%. And then wetter,

26:43slightly more likely than drier, again, 55% for near average, that most likely. And then windy,

26:51windy or calmer, they're very similar really, but again, near average. Now, when it comes to

26:56coming up with these percentages, a few things to bear in mind, now with any percentage, any probability,

27:01even with 5%, that's not zero. And so we're definitely not saying it's going to be warmer,

27:06or it's going to be average, but it's just more likely to be warmer than cooler. Like I said, though,

27:13near average still looks most likely. So definitely not a guarantee. These aren't forecasts in the same

27:17way that we issue our one to five day forecasts. These are trends of sorts. The other thing to bear

27:25in

27:25mind is we look at a number of things. There are lots of global drivers that we need to take

27:30into account

27:30when it comes to coming up with these percentage chances. For the the warmth one, obviously,

27:35there's our baseline climate warming. And then there's also the fact that sea surface temperatures

27:40around the UK at the moment are higher than average. We've had many marine heat waves already this year,

27:47and that's going to have a knock on effect to how warm it is across the UK. I mean, it's

27:53warmer than

27:53average across many parts, particularly in the south through this week. I'll talk about that in a second.

27:58But the other thing is, yes, you've probably heard a super El Nino, well, a very strong El Nino

28:05has developed and the impacts on the UK, they're minimal compared to other parts of the world. But

28:11nonetheless, often in an El Nino year, we do get a wetter, windier, but also milder autumn, early winter

28:19period. And so these percentages go in line with that. Now, another way that we can show what we have

28:26with this outlook is looking at these graphs, we're breaking it down again into temperature,

28:32precipitation and also wind speeds. And the dotted line is our normal likelihood. And then the grey

28:39shaded area is this current period. And you can see the September to November outlook for 2026 has the

28:47warmth all shifted or the temperatures all shifted towards the warmer side. So near average still

28:53looks most likely, albeit on the slightly warmer side of near average. But then you can see there's a

28:58fair amount of or fair chance of it being in this warmer section, especially when you compare it to

29:04the amount in the cooler section. Like I said, with our baseline warming climate, we'd often expect it to be

29:09shifted to the right anyway. But that's a little bit more shifted than you might expect. Not a huge surprise

29:14when you take into account how warm, record-breakingly warm it has been through this summer.

29:21Then looking at rainfall and it's similar, still shifted a bit to the right to this wetter side.

29:27As I mentioned, an El Niño event often leads to wet or autumns. So that's not a huge surprise either,

29:33but it's not as marked and still a reasonable chance that it will just be around average and you can't

29:37rule

29:37out to dry either. And then the windier, a slight shift to being slightly windier than average perhaps,

29:43but the emphasis there isn't as strong as it is in the other two categories.

29:51But let's look at what's actually happening in the UK at the moment. I won't dwell on this

29:57for too long. There we go. Got there eventually. Won't dwell on this for too long. We'll cover it more

30:02in the 10-day trend, which will come out tomorrow. But we do have the jet stream running across us

30:08at

30:08the moment. Let's just play that through. And it's a relatively strong jet, not causing too many

30:13problems. None of the low pressure systems that are coming nearby look like they're going to be

30:18and I think too impactful. But nonetheless, it is going to be fairly autumnal in some respects.

30:26There will be some changeable weather. It will be wet. It will be quite blustery, quite windy at times.

30:31The wettest weather mainly towards the north and west. But generally, yes, there'll be some rain

30:35coming through. It's worth highlighting the temperatures that I mentioned, particularly

30:40across the south. It's actually going to stay on the warmer side of average for the start of October,

30:45and particularly by night. Those nights could be pretty mild. But I think the big talking point is

30:51those rainfall amounts. I just showed you the fact that this coming autumn, and even this coming

30:58September, could be a little bit wetter than average. But even some wet spells this September,

31:04and even slightly wetter than normal through September, well, that rainfall may not still be

31:09enough to help alleviate the very dry weather that we've had through much of this summer,

31:15particularly across southern parts. So that's something to take into account. But when it comes

31:18to rainfall amounts, let's just run through the rolling totals for this week. And, well, it's really,

31:26as you would expect, with that jet stream coming in from the west and the weather systems coming in

31:31from the west as well. It's western, northwestern parts of the UK where we're going to see the highest

31:36rainfall totals. Parts of North Wales, northern England through the middle of the week and towards

31:41the back end could see some relatively high rainfall totals. But there's a bit of uncertainty as to the

31:46position of a weather system that comes through later this week. Our model has it more across

31:51central areas, whereas I think some other models have it a bit further north across parts of Scotland

31:57and Northern Ireland. Nonetheless, it does look like, yes, some western, northwestern areas could see

32:02in excess of 100 millimetres building up, perhaps as much as maybe 20 to 30 millimetres in just a couple

32:07of hours or so at times with some spells of heavy rain. But further towards the southeast, whilst there will

32:13be

32:13some wet weather coming through, well, generally it looks like it's going to be often quite dry,

32:19largely dry as well. So more changeable than it has been perhaps, but still warm, as I mentioned,

32:25and not as wet as it will be across northwestern areas. As I mentioned, we'll cover this more in

32:31the 10-day trend, or there's the week ahead forecast which Greg put out on our YouTube channel yesterday,

32:36which you can catch as well if you want more in-depth look at what the UK weather is shaping

32:41up,

32:42or how the UK weather is shaping up this week. Now, thank you very much for watching this week's

32:47Deep Dive. It's been a pleasure as always. Remember, get those comments coming in, hit the like button,

32:52hit the share button, and make sure you're subscribed. I'll be back again, I think I'm back on

32:59Friday. I'll be here on Friday with the Weather Studio Live. Aidan and I will be here, so if you

33:04do

33:04have any questions about anything that I've covered in this week's Deep Dive, we'll get them in and we'll be

33:08answering them on Friday. I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.

34:05Bye-bye.

34:33Bye-bye.

Deep Dive 01/09/2026 – A record breaking summer – Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

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