00:10Iran is sending a very clear message to Washington right now Tehran is not afraid of the United
00:16States and it is not asking for peace from a position of weakness in fact Iran's latest
00:21offer to return to the ceasefire could be interpreted almost as the opposite president
00:27Masood Pazeshkian has said Iran is ready to return to the ceasefire understanding reached between the
00:34United States and Iran in June but there is a condition Washington must first return to its
00:41own commitments and that distinction is extremely important Iran is essentially saying we are ready
00:47to stop fighting but we are not going to surrender the June understanding was supposed to create an
00:52immediate ceasefire and open the doors to negotiations Iran had agreed to clear mines
00:57from the Strait of Hormuz and facilitate shipping in return the United States was supposed to end
01:03its naval blockade ease sanctions provide waivers for Iranian oil exports and support reconstruction
01:09but the arrangement quickly broke down the two sides have now exchanged fire again the United
01:15States struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island Iran responded by firing missiles at American
01:21missile military facilities in Jordan although those missiles were intercepted and yet after all this
01:28Tehran is still offering a way back to the ceasefire that is where the Iranian calculation becomes
01:33interesting Iran appears to believe that time is no longer entirely on America's side think about
01:40the situation from Tehran's perspective the United States has enormous military superiority it has aircraft
01:47carriers advanced aircraft missiles intelligence capabilities and military bases across the region
01:53and the list goes on but military superiority does not automatically translate into a political victory
01:59and Iran has spent decades preparing for precisely this kind of confrontation it has missiles it has drones it
02:08has regional networks it has the ability to disrupt shipping and most importantly it sits next to one of the
02:15the world's most strategically important waterways the Strait of Orbus that gives Tehran something
02:21Washington cannot simply bomb away the Strait is a pressure point for the global economy and Iran knows it
02:28this is why Tehran's confidence matters Iran does not need to defeat the United States militarily to claim
02:35strategic success it simply needs to convince Washington that the cost of continuing the confrontation is
02:41becoming higher than the benefit of continuing it and that appears to be the strategy and it seems working as
02:48well
02:48notice the language coming from Tehran Iran is not saying please give us a ceasefire it is saying return to
02:56your
02:56commitments and we will reciprocate immediately that is a very different diplomatic posture it puts the burden on the next
03:05move on
03:05in Washington and this is where Donald Trump could find himself on the back
03:09Trump has built much of his foreign policy image around pressure maximum pressure threats sanctions military deterrence the message is
03:19supposed to be that America dictates the terms but Iran is now attempting to
03:23reverse that psychological equation Tehran is effectively saying we are willing to
03:29negotiate we are willing to stop fighting but you have to meet your conditions first
03:33that allows Iran to present itself not as the side desperate for a deal but as the
03:40side offering to you and that is politically useful there is another reason
03:46Tehran appears confident Iran says it has sufficient foreign currency reserves
03:51despite American sanctions that directly challenges the argument coming from
03:56Washington that Iran is being economically strangled and is therefore running out
04:00of options US Treasury Secretary Scott Ascent had argued that Iran is lashing out
04:06because it is losing the economic war Tehran's response is essentially we can
04:10still absorb the pressure now that does not mean Iran is economically comfortable
04:16sanctions hurt for sure war hurts restrictions on trade hurt and prolonged
04:22disruption around hormones can hurt Iran itself but Tehran appears to believe it
04:27can withstand enough pain to prevent Washington from dictating the outcome and
04:32then there is international dimension position is making these comments at the
04:37Shanghai cooperation organization summit China and Russia are there India is there
04:43and Iran is sitting inside a diplomatic environment that is very different from a
04:48direct US Iran confrontation this matters because Tehran is not completely isolated
04:53China is an important economic partner Russia is a strategic partner and
04:58countries such as India have a major interest in keeping the state of Hormuz open
05:02and preventing the conflict from escalating into a much wider regional war and
05:06then it becomes a domestic issue for countries like India as far as the
05:10supply of LPG is concerned so Iran has diplomatic space and that gives Tehran
05:17another reason to negotiate from a position of confidence but there is a
05:22major catch Iran's confidence should not be confused with Iranian willingness to
05:26compromise on everything the Revolutionary Guard remains extremely
05:30influential the demands reportedly being pushed from the Iranian side include
05:34greater Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and financial
05:38compensation for the damage caused by the war those demands are the ones
05:43Washington is unlikely to accept easily so we are looking at a very complicated
05:48situation but the escape route is only one that is diplomacy whether it is
05:54through an iron fist in a velvet cover or a ceasefire that lasts long very long
06:05long very long
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