00:00नमस्कार मैं सुमित कुमार आप देख रहे हैं good returns भारत की economy ने एक बार फिर मजबूत growth का
00:05दम दिखाया है सरकारी आकडों के मताविक हम नहीं कह रहे है GDP growth 7.8% रही है जो
00:11उमीदों से बहतर है मतलब जो जितना expectation था उससे बहतर growth दिखाये दी है लेकिन सवाल सिर्फ इतना नह
00:29सर दिखाई देता है 7.8% GDP का इसके साथ ही क्या ये 7.8% की जो growth
00:34आई है क्या ये growth दिकाऊ है आने वाले तिमाहियों में क्या भारत 7% के उपर की रफ्तार बनाए
00:39रख पाएगा और इसके साथ ही क्या ये GDP के आकरे ground reality की पूरी तस्बीर दिखाते हैं या फिर
00:45कहानी कुछ और
00:46है इनी मुद्धों पर आज हमारे साथ चर्चा के लिए मौजूद है जेन यू के पूर प्रफेसर डॉक्टर अरुन कुमार
00:52सर जब भी एकोनॉमी की बात हो और जब भी अर्थवास्ता को समझनी की बात हो तो सर से वेतर
00:57कौन हो सकता है बहुत-बहुत स्वागत है सर आपक
01:13है वह क्वाटर वन है इस साल का जो इस यह फारेंशल यह का तो इसमें मतलब कि हमारा जो
01:20अप्रेल मैं जून दोजार चब्श का डेटा है तो अप्रेल और मैं में तो हालत खराब थी अर्थवास्ता की चुकि
01:28पर्श्यमेशिया में युद्ध शूरू हो गया था अठाइस
01:32स्वरवरी को तो मैं मार्च को तो नहीं गिन रहा पर अप्रेल और माई तो इसमें था ही और जून
01:37में भी यो समझोता हुआ भी था थोड़ा बहुत वह मिडल में हुआ था तो यह अप्रेल माई जून तो
01:42डिस्टरब था जब हमारे को एनरजी की शॉर्टेज थी जो गैस
01:49थी उनमें 20% कटोथी कर दी गई थी जाए गैस की उनमें उत्पादन कम हो गया था वरकल्स ट्राइक
01:56कर रहे थे प्रोटेस्ट कर रहे थे माने सर में और आपके नॉड़ा में पंजाब में राजस्थान में गुज्रात में
02:03और सूरत से तो बहुत साह लोग गाउं की तरफ
02:06पलायन करना शुन किया तो अर्थवस्ता अप्रेल माई में तो काफी बुरी हालत में थी और आप देखें कि फर्टलाइजर
02:13की कमी भी थी फर्टलाइजर में भी ब्लैक मार्केटिंग चल रही थी तो कि पश्चिमेश्या से फर्टलाइजर और ऐलुमेन बहुत
02:19आता है वह
02:32तो ऐसी नहीं लग रहे कि 7.8 प्रश्चत की बहुत है तो यह 7.8 प्रश्चत कहां से आया
02:38दिखिए यह quarterly जो डेटा होता है वो हमारे उपलब्द नहीं होता उस समय थोड़ा बहुत होता है जैसे कि
02:45खृषी में थोड़ा क्रॉप कर्टिंग एक्सपेरिमेंट से कुछ उप
02:59लब्द होती है तो जो methodology है मैं आपको पढ़के अगर सुना हूँ तो जो अभी आया उसमें उन्हों ने
03:06कहा कि तरीका क्या है हमारा compile करने का उन्होंने का compilation of quarterly estimate of GDP is based on
03:12benchmark indicator methodology अब यह benchmark indicator methodology क्या है जिसमें कि
03:17estimate computer for the previous financial year मतलब पिछले financial year से इस साल प्रजेक्ट किया जाते है तो अगर
03:27पिछले साल का अच्छा है और आप उससे प्रजेक्ट करेंगे तो अच्छा निकलेगा तो जैसे कि
03:32नोट बंदी के दौरान सब ने देखा अर्ट हैस्ता क्राइसिस में थी पांच महीने पर सरकार ने दिखाया कि बहुत
03:38अच्छी ग्रोथ थी आर्ट प्रेश्ट की ग्रोथ थी तो इसलिए है क्योंकि हमारा methodology गलत है और यह methodology किस
03:43ने दिये हमें यह IMF ने दिये
03:45है IMF का 2017 का paper है तो इसमें लिखा है कि quarterly national account manual of international monetary fund
03:522017 उसको हम यूज कर रहे हैं तो जो quarterly
03:56estimate है वह IMF की methodology के अब क्योंकि बाकी और देशों में असंगरिशेद इतना बड़ा नहीं है तो वहां
04:02समस्या नहीं आती हमारे तो 44 प्रश्चतलों के संगरिशेद में काम करते हैं और 45 प्रश्चतलों होता है हमारे असंगरिशेद
04:10में तो इसलिए हमारी समस्या अलग है तब
04:23भी कि ँट आगे अच्छा दिखा अश्वरा अच्छा दिखा अच्छा दिखा है है हमें पता है कि अपनफेल था कि
04:31जो पर यखान थे तो इसलिए यह रहा है और आकले सहीा नहीं है तो जो भी क्या
04:51foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign
04:58foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign
05:01foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign foreign
05:04So this is why I think it's good for me because it's a projection, so it's good for me.
05:09Okay, sir, if you look at it, manufacturing is 9.2% compared to it.
05:14The growth of the growth has been told.
05:18It's been told that it's been growing.
05:20But we've told you that when the crisis was running in Middle East,
05:24and it's still running,
05:25so the growth of the growth was increased.
05:28It's about 90 dollars per barrel,
05:29the growth of the growth of the growth.
05:43It is correct,
05:45it's come toangle into the socially mindset and experience scenarios as far as the growth of course.
05:49The growth of the growth perspective of the growth of the growth of the economy is not done.
05:53Ifût neighborhoods need to continue,
05:54if part of the growth of the growth of the growth of the growth of the growth of the growth
05:55perhaps,
05:55I think I should have said that the economy is not even bigger, because you have just
06:03done a project in the past year, so the performance was good in the past year, so this year
06:08will be good.
06:09In reality, it's not good in reality.
06:11In reality, there is a growth of 0% which is the growth of the 7% of the 8
06:15% of the
06:16growth.
06:17Because the projection of the project is the same for the same.
06:20The same for the same for the same for the same for the same for the same for the same
06:38Okay.
06:40Okay.
07:09Okay.
07:20Okay.
07:23Okay.
07:24Okay.
07:35Okay.
07:36I am looking forward to watching this video and I will see you in the background.
07:40But, without the grammar, the grammar, the grammar, the grammar used to get on file and then it will fix
07:44it.
07:45I feel like I am forgetting that I am hearing that we are forgetting that I am forgetting that consumption
07:48growth is here.
07:50But when it comes to the grammar, it can also give the grammar and grammar to the grammar.
08:04foreign
08:18foreign
08:19foreign
08:19foreign
08:22foreign
08:24foreign
08:28foreign
08:30foreign
08:30foreign
08:31foreign
08:59के दिकार मितलब फंड लिए शरकार के उसमें सरकार तो फंस गई ना तो उनको तो उसको जस्टिफाई करना पड़ेगा
09:16वो तरह तरह से ये ये तो डेटा ठीक है पर जो असली में जो मैं anti-logy है
09:27foreign
09:32foreign
09:33foreign
09:34foreign
09:35So, when we talk about the data, we don't need to project.
09:37So, when we talk about double deflation,
09:42double deflation was done in the last year,
09:44and then we said,
09:47we changed the base in 2011-2022.
09:50So, it was a good thing.
09:52But the method was not changing.
09:54If you changed the base,
09:55then you have more later data.
09:57But the projection of the data is wrong.
10:02It was wrong.
10:03It was wrong.
10:04I'm writing in 2016 that it's wrong.
10:07GDP, we need to change the base.
10:10So, we don't give it to our attention.
10:12We are doing this.
10:14Sir, you are studying economics and writing.
10:18You are writing the interview.
10:20Sir, I want to understand the fact that if we look at the real GDP,
10:25how much is the GDP?
10:277.8%?
10:28We are calling the government data.
10:29But if we look at that type of development,
10:32if we look at reality,
10:34then what does reality show us?
10:36If we look at the projection of the data,
10:38then the projection is wrong.
10:41So, if our data is wrong,
10:43then I think we don't have growth in this quarter one.
10:47How much is the right?
10:48And if we think of the projection of the data,
10:52then it will increase the rate of growth.
10:55Because if you have the rate of growth,
10:58that will only be organized sector for the organization,
11:01because the sector of the organization does not come.
11:03The sector is against the organization.
11:05The sector of the organization is against the organization,
11:05the organization is against the organization.
11:08I think it will be more than 3% but I think that it is also wrong that you have
11:14to do a project
11:15so I think that this is not a big deal in this quarter compared to this quarter.
11:22The chance is that it has gone.
11:24Okay sir, the base year has changed.
11:2922 to 23.
11:31Sir, what is the concept of base year?
11:37When you name GDP, you can name all the things.
11:42You can name all the things.
11:43Then what happens when the time goes, technology changes.
11:49Like today's car, it was not 15 years before the car.
11:52It was a lot of software.
11:54For 50 years before it was even more simple.
11:57The car has changed.
11:59The computer has changed.
12:01The mobile phone has come.
12:03The landline has changed.
12:04No, no, no, no.
12:05So our customers move to the church in the church.
12:09And so we never use it.
12:09It's changed every day.
12:11The base year is given to us.
12:13The new things will link the new things to us,
12:16and then we will get together.
12:17We need to use data collection,
12:19We also need to use data collection.
12:21In the case of the survey we were doing
12:23Unincorporated enterprise for 5 years.
12:26foreign
13:23change
13:24change
13:24okay
13:25methodology
13:28methodology
13:29what methodology
13:33we need to see
13:34methodology
13:35in the last year
13:38the next year
13:42this year
13:43you get to see
13:43you can do
13:45the projection
13:47The direction of the project must be changed.
13:50And then the Asangrish Shetra needs to be taken to our attention.
13:54We don't have attention to our data,
13:57but we don't have policy.
13:58When the government says that the art pressure is a good growth,
14:01we don't need something to change.
14:03We need to change the needs.
14:05Our investment is a very big crisis.
14:09The farmers protest every day,
14:11how much the wealth is increased,
14:12how much the wealth is increased.
14:14The micro sector is 7 crore units,
14:19We are in the crisis, small-scale sector, so we need to take a different from MSME.
14:24We need to change in micro and small and medium.
14:27We need to change in GST, which the wrong affect has been made in small sector,
14:33which we need to take a better effect.
14:34Then we need to build a better job.
14:36We need to build a better job in the industry, in the rural development, agriculture.
14:42We need to pay more attention in the capital intensive sector.
14:45We do not get worse than the real-intensive sector.
14:48We would still have to change unemployment.
14:49So many things that we would need to change.
14:52If we say that our data is not right,
14:56we will see our real data.
14:58So we would change our policies.
15:01We would say that if we are good,
15:02then we would need to change.
15:03Because if we don't change our policies,
15:05we would need to change our policies.
15:08We would need to change our policies.
15:11Right.
15:11Right, because it's 7.8%, 8% score is quite high.
15:14What is the biggest concern for the economy?
15:20The biggest concern is that it's a poor person, because it's very low.
15:24If there will be a regular person, then there will be an opportunity.
15:29If there will be an opportunity, then they will be able to get their own money.
15:31Now, because it's very difficult, that's why all the employees are giving freebies.
15:34When they give freebies, then the budget is lost.
15:37They have a problem in Punjab, in Himachal, in Maharashtra, in Madhya Pradesh.
15:42They have a problem in many different countries.
15:44If you have promised, you have promised to be in Bihar for 10,000 rupees.
15:50Then you will have a development program.
15:52If you are making a vote, then you are making a vote.
15:56Because you don't have the right rules.
15:58You had to give a poor person, you had to help, you had to help.
16:02You didn't have to do it.
16:31You do not have a
17:01we need to be able to do that.
17:03a.i.k.a.n.e. toh.
17:04और ज्यादे भैंकर रूप से बढ़ेगा तो इसलिए हमें तो जा लेवर
17:07इंटेंसिज सेक्टर ने उनको पढ़ाने चाहिए नहीं तो हमारे ये
17:10समस्या और बिगड़ती जरी जाएगी ओके अगर काम नहीं किया गया
17:33तो Q2 और Q3 का डेटा भी सही नहीं आएगा क्योंकि वह भी प्रोजेक्शन के आधार पर होगा जो परिशानी
17:39है वह तो दिखेगी नहीं तो इसलिए
17:41मेरा मानना है कि अभी तो हमारी ग्रोथ अच्छी होई नहीं सकती क्योंकि ना तो हमारा
17:45इंवेस्ट्मेंट बढ़ıldıगा ना हमारा कंगरेगा और हमारा जो एक्सपोर्ट इंपोरट ऐस पर भी असफर पढ़ रहा है अब आपने देखा
17:53जो आख्रे दिखले उसमें
17:54export import bhoot tezhi se bada
17:56daam bada gaya
17:57daam bada gaya na jay aapne import
17:59kia aapne crude bada gaya
18:01to uske daam jay bada gaya to aapka import bada gaya
18:03aapne jay usse refined product
18:05export kia to uske daam bada gaya
18:07to aapka export bhi bada dikhega
18:08lakin actual me kya ho raha hai
18:10ki humara jay balance of payment
18:12wou to gara bada raha hai
18:13kya hume jay tel kharidna pard raha hai
18:15mehenghe electronic items kharidne pard raha hai
18:18aaj kal to chips ki shortage hai
18:19to mobile phone bada gara me chips
18:21lakta hai unki shortage honne se unke daam bhi bada raha hai
18:23toh sab chino ke daam to bada gaya
18:25jab shortage hogi supply bottle neck ho ga
18:27aap pradhan mantri ji nye toh khud kaha
18:29ki supply bottle neck seh supply chain disruption
18:32hai toh aise meh toh humare
18:33haad jay parišanhi toh bada ghi
18:35toh isne ye ye yudh ka rukna bhoot zharoori hai
18:39okey
18:39aapne wakt nikalao
18:42aapne wakt nikalao aapne kis tarah se
18:437.8 percent joh gdp hai questionable
18:45aapne kis tariqe se ispeh question kiya jasakta hai
18:47pura ka pura joh calculation hai
18:49usko thoda sa badalene ki jarurit hai
18:50thankyou sir
18:52aapne wakt nikalao aapne wakt nikalao
18:53haamari daršakos ke liye
18:55namastate
19:00aapne
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