00:00The planet is in uncharted waters and those waters are heating up.
00:05That's the warning from UN head Antonio Guterres as one of the biggest El Nino's in recorded history grows in
00:12intensity.
00:13New forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization now put the likelihood that the weather phenomenon will persist well into next
00:21year at close to 100%.
00:25Farmers across the globe are expected to suffer badly from the extreme weather with global agricultural output predicted to take
00:33a $342 billion hit.
00:38Some of that loss will be caused by drought in parts of Asia, Australia and Africa and rainfall during India's
00:45monsoon season could be cut in half.
00:48Elsewhere in the world, like the southern U.S., farmers face the opposite problem as extreme downpours wash away crops.
00:57The impact will be felt by shoppers in the grocery aisle.
01:01Researchers project that this super El Nino could trigger a 16% surge in global food prices.
01:09Kamiya Mohadez is director of the Climate Traces Lab at the University of Cambridge.
01:14Kamiya, thank you so much for joining us.
01:17How likely is it that we're going to be seeing either a shortage of food or increased food prices in
01:26the coming months?
01:27Yeah, absolutely we are.
01:29I mean, let me put this in the context of what's happening in the globe.
01:32So remember, El Nino is only one of the things that's putting pressure on agricultural commodities, prices.
01:37On the other hand, you also have the issue with the war in Iran where Strait of Hormuz is closed.
01:44And as you know, which has put huge pressure on fertilizers, which we obviously use in agriculture.
01:51So I think combining the El Nino effect with the Strait of Hormuz closure,
01:56we are going to see some really sharp increases in food prices felt across the globe.
02:04Are certain crops or certain regions going to be more vulnerable than others?
02:10Absolutely.
02:11I mean, as you know, and as we just say, El Nino actually brings the epicenter of the shock in
02:16the Asia Pacific.
02:17That's where most of the action will be.
02:19Most of the negative action will be.
02:22And, you know, for instance, Australia is a major, major exporter of wheat.
02:27And we know that in an El Nino year and what we are observing in Southeast Australia,
02:32we're going to have severe bushfires, which will reduce those production of wheat,
02:37which will put upward pressure on wheat prices.
02:40And by the way, this is not an, as I said, it's not just an Australia thing.
02:43It happens in New Zealand.
02:45Parts of the country will be flooded.
02:46Other parts of the country will be dry.
02:48Again, impacting agricultural products and commodities.
02:52In India, you mentioned the weak monsoon, huge adverse effect on India's agricultural sector.
02:58And it will increase not only pressure on domestic prices, but also general inflation in India.
03:04So what we have seen as some of the modeling that we do at Cantab Alpha, we have seen that
03:12El Nino puts extra pressures on maize, rice, wheat,
03:17and will increase those prices.
03:21So those agricultural products, but again, this is going to be impacting not just agriculture.
03:30It's also going to be impacting energy, which will have a second order impact on agricultural production.
03:38So it's not looking good.
03:40Not looking good indeed.
03:41Indeed, is there time to put any measures in place, either to protect crops or protect economies?
03:48I mean, I think that the main, obviously many countries in Asia Pacific have been, you know, El Nino happens.
03:55It's a cyclical, it'll be two to seven years.
03:58This one looks to be very, very severe.
04:00Governments in the region have put in measures.
04:03For instance, in Manila, we do have new water management systems.
04:07We know that in India, irrigation systems have been rolled out over the last several decades.
04:12The problem is the severity of this El Nino.
04:15I am not convinced we have that time and luxury of that time to be able to move to more
04:23drought resistant crops
04:24or manage water in places where, you know, the water management hasn't been in place already.
04:30So I'm not too optimistic in being able to deal with that.
04:35Again, putting into the global context with fertilizers, lack of fertilizers due to strain of hormones
04:40and other things happening, not just the El Nino, other climate impacts happening across the globe.
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